W E E K L Y    W E B I N A R    S U M M A R Y M A Y   2 1 , 2 0 2 6

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AI-GENERATED CONTENT NOTICE
This summary is generated using artificial intelligence based on a transcript of the Charted Line webinar. While we strive for accuracy, we do not guarantee the completeness, accuracy, or reliability of the information presented. Please refer to the full webinar recording and original materials for complete context.
 

Topics Covered

• Secular Bull Market Outlook

• S&P 500 / NASDAQ 100 Technical Outlook

• Seasonality & Midterm Year Risks

• Market Breadth & Sentiment

• NAAIM Exposure / Margin Debt / VIX Positioning

• Financial Conditions & Credit Markets

• Mega Cap Leadership / MAG7 / Growth vs Broad Market

• Small Caps, Mid Caps & Equal Weight

• Treasury Yields, Inflation Expectations & Oil

• Emerging Markets & Commodities

• Metals: Copper, Silver, Gold, Aluminum

• Sector Rankings

• Q&A – Stocks & ETF Breakdown

​

Tickers Covered

• CWB – SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities ETF

• DECK – Deckers Outdoor

• F – Ford Motor

• IWC – iShares Micro-Cap ETF

• IWM – iShares Russell 2000 ETF

• MAGS – RoundHill Magnificent Seven ETF

• MDY – SPDR S&P MidCap 400 ETF

• NB – NioCorp Developments

• QQQ – Invesco QQQ Trust

• RDW – Redwire

• RKLB – Rocket Lab

• ROKU – Roku

• RSP – Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF

• SMH – VanEck Semiconductor ETF

• SOX – Philadelphia Semiconductor Index

• SPY – SPDR S&P 500 ETF

• TSLA – Tesla

• UAMY – United States Antimony

• UNH – UnitedHealth Group​

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​

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Secular Bull Market Remains Intact

• Current secular bull market continues to be viewed as beginning with the 2013 breakout.

• Prior secular bull cycles lasted roughly 16–20 years.

• Current cycle is entering its 13th year.

• STS continues to expect the S&P 500 could surpass 10,000 between 2029–2033.

• Market backdrop continues resembling a late-cycle secular bull / mega-cap melt-up environment.​

S&P 500 & NASDAQ 100 Technical Outlook

 

S&P 500

• S&P testing long-standing upside targets from the mid-2025 breakout.

• Current target zone remains 7450–7490.

• Additional upside target near 7650 tied to the April 2026 breakout above 7000.

• Rally has advanced roughly 19% from late March lows.

• Multiple gap-ups suggest a maturing advance.

Key Risk Management Level:

• May 6 gap near 7294–7273.

• Gap fill would raise exhaustion / correction risk.

 

NASDAQ 100

• NASDAQ 100 remains stronger than the S&P.

• Surpassed major upside counts from the 2025 breakout.

• April 2026 breakout target has already been tested.

• The recent broadening pattern interpreted as bullish rather than bearish.

Key Risk Management Level:

• Gap support near 28,200–28,065.
   

Seasonality & Midterm Year Risk

• STS highlighted growing concern around midterm presidential cycle seasonality.

• Unlike normal years, midterm summers historically underperform.

• “Sell in May and go away” tendencies align more closely with midterm year behavior.

• Seasonal backdrop remains weaker until approximately September–October.

• Suggests potential for summer volatility or consolidation.

 

Breadth, Positioning & Risk Management

 

NAAIM Exposure / Institutional Positioning

• Asset managers helped sponsor the rally following the March correction.

• Last week's drop in the NAAIM Exposure Index from the 90s to upper-70s suggests reduced institutional sponsorship as the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100.

• If positioning weakens further while markets rally, that would be an important warning sign.

 

Margin Debt

• Margin debt reached another record high, above $1.3 trillion.

• Indicator currently confirms the rally.

• Historically, margin debt tends to peak before major market highs.

• 12-month margin debt growth near 53%, highest readings since prior major market peaks from 2021, 2007, and 2000.

 

Tactical Sentiment – VIX Structure

• March fear readings helped identify the late-March bottom.

• Current posture is more complacent.

• Suggests a maturing rally and somewhat less favorable tactical backdrop.

 

Breadth Concerns

S&P 500 Breadth

• Advance-decline line has not confirmed the new highs above 7000 on the S&P 500.

• Volume breadth has flattened.

NASDAQ 100 Breadth

• While NASDAQ 100 breadth has stalled since early/mid May, it remains healthier than breadth on the S&P.

• Showed a stronger confirmation of the rally in May.

Net New Highs vs New Lows

• Deteriorating since mid April.

• Move below late-March / early August lows (-21 to -27) for the spread between 52-week highs and 52-week lows would represent a canary warning signal.

 

Leadership & Factor Rotation

 

Mega-Cap Leadership

• STS continues to prefer mega-cap growth leadership.

• QQQ leadership vs SPY remains intact.

• Current setup increasingly resembles late-1990s style NASDAQ leadership.

 

MAG7 Leadership

• MAG7 relative strength appears to have bottomed.

• Pattern resembles last year’s setup:

  • Spring base

  • Summer outperformance

• Continued MAG7 leadership would support an upward S&P bias.

 

Equal Weight / Broad Market

RSP – Equal Weight S&P

• Constructive cup-and-handle formation developing.

• Must hold 198–200 area.

• Breakout above 205 projects toward 213–220+.

 

Small Caps / Mid Caps / Micro Caps

IWM – Russell 2000

• Major breakout retest remains intact.

• Tactical support: 271–268.

• Longer-term constructive outlook maintained.

MDY – Mid Caps

• Cup-and-handle setup remains active.

• Relative strength weaker than small caps.

IWC – Micro Caps

• Stronger pattern than mid caps.

• Support: 176–173.

• Initial target near 195.

• Longer-term bullish if larger support zone holds.

 

Rates, Inflation & Credit

 

Treasury Yields

• 10-year Treasury yield remains inside a longer-term triangle.

• Upward breakout remains a risk.

• Higher yields could eventually challenge the secular equity backdrop.

 

Inflation Expectations

• 10-year and 5-year breakevens testing resistance.

• Sustained breakout higher would suggest inflation becoming less contained.

• Would likely carry implications for Fed policy expectations.

 

Credit Markets

• High-yield spreads beginning to widen modestly.

• BAA spread remains benign below 2%.

• No major systemic credit stress visible, but divergences warrant monitoring.

 

Global Markets & Commodities

 

Emerging Markets

• EEM remains constructive.

• Initial target: 77

• Longer-term target: 93

Preferred hierarchy:

1. Emerging Markets

2. S&P 500

3. EFA / Developed International

 

Commodities & Metals

Copper

• Constructive major metal chart.

• Bullish above 6.15.

• Next target near 7.

Aluminum

• Potentially stronger than copper.

• Possible retest of 2022 highs.

Silver

• Tactical chart weakened after Friday selloff but longer-term view unchanged.

• Long-term projections remain 148–175 if larger support holds.

Gold

• Tactical action choppy.

• Longer-term target range remains $6,000–$8,000.

 

Sector Rankings

STS continues to favor maintaining core S&P exposure.

Preferred areas:

1. Technology

2. Energy

3. Real Estate (tactical participation)

On a 52-week basis, the S&P continues outperforming most sectors.

 

Q&A – Stock & ETF Breakdown

Bullish / Constructive

Rocket Lab (RKLB)

• Continues to look constructive.

• Potential toward 142–143, possibly 164.

• Risk management level near 115.

Tesla (TSLA)

• Potential cup-and-handle formation remains intact.

• Initial target: 498–513.

• Longer-term upside: 621–760.

• Key support: 390–400.

UnitedHealth (UNH)

• Bottoming/base formation improving.

• Holding 350–370 constructive.

• Upside potential: 430–450, possibly 490–518.

Roku (ROKU)

• Major base breakout remains viable.

• Support: 108–116.

• Potential toward 170–180.

Ford (F)

• Building a base.

• Breakout through 14.80–15.42 improves outlook.

• Potential toward low-20s.

 

Neutral / Mixed

NB (NioCorp)

• Wedge pattern constructive but chart remains cloudy.

• Awaiting clearer confirmation.

DECK (Deckers)

• Range-bound / neutral.

• No strong directional view.

 

Risk Management / Caution

SMH / SOX (Semiconductors)

• Most targets already tested.

• June–September seasonality weaker.

• STS recommends managing risk rather than chasing strength.

 

Key Themes This Week

Bullish Factors

• Secular bull market intact

• NASDAQ / mega-cap leadership strong

• Growth and technology leadership continues

• Emerging markets constructive

• Commodities / metals improving

• Credit backdrop still broadly benign

Risks

• Midterm year summer seasonality

• Narrowing market breadth

• Reduced institutional sponsorship

• Elevated margin debt / leverage

• Rising inflation expectations

• Potential Treasury yield breakout

 

Closing Note

Primary trend remains bullish, but the market is entering a period where risk management matters more than aggressive buying.

Leadership remains concentrated in:

• Mega-cap growth

• Technology / semiconductors

• Emerging markets

• Select commodity themes

Technical backdrop still supports higher prices longer-term, but summer volatility and consolidation risks are rising beneath the surface.