The Chart Check - Mar. 26, 2026

*** Please see the bottom of this report for important disclaimers and disclosures.***

Line in the sand supports across the indices

IWM: Big support at 245-240 must hold for a breakout and retest pattern

The iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM) is correcting within an uptrend and testing the zone of rising 26- and 40-week moving averages (WMAs) from 251.45 to 243.43 as support. However, the big risk management level given geopolitical risk from the war with Iran is 245-240. Holding this support is required to maintain a bullish breakout and retest from the 2021-2025 big base that projects IWM into the 320s. A failure to do would call this breakout into question with additional support from 233.45-228.90 (38.2% retracement and late November low). IWM needs to close the week above the 26-WMA at 251.45 to increase the potential for a successful retest of its breakout.

MDY: Must hold 609-597 to maintain its 2024-2025 cup and handle breakout

The SPDR S&P MidCap 400 ETF (MDY) remains within an uptrend with rising 26- and 40-WMAs from 615 down to 605. However, the big support is 609-597, which must hold to maintain MDY’s breakout from a late 2024 into early 2026 bullish cup and handle pattern. If this key risk management support breaks, it would call MDY’s big breakout into question with the next support at the handle lows near 577-568. However, if 609-597 bends and does not decisively break, the 2024-2025 cup and handle remains intact with longer-term targets in the 680s and 750s.

IWC: Must hold the 160-152 zone to preserve its 2021-2025 big base breakout

The iShares Micro-Cap ETF (IWC) is retesting the breakout from its early 2021 into late 2025 big base. Holding the 160-152 range (breakout/retest zone and rising 26- and 40-WMAs) is required to preserve this breakout with longer-term targets at 184, 195, and 228. If equities continue to weaken and IWC breaks 160-152, which we view as key risk management support, the next significant support comes in at 143-139. IWC has late 2023-early 2026 bottom relative to the S&P 500. Holding the relative WMAs on dips would keep IWC positive vs. SPX.

DJT: Must hold 17,845-17,630 to keep its 2011-2026 big base breakout intact

The Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJT) is retesting the breakout from its massive 2011-2026 triangle basing pattern, which projects longer-term upside to 23,000 and 23,900. This breakout would remain firmly in place if the 17,845-17,630 zone holds as support. However, even if this support breaks, the rising 26- and 40-WMAs from 17,477 to 16,880 provide a bullish backdrop and offer additional support ahead of the next chart support at 16,480. DJT shows a shift to leadership from October 2025, which stays in place while above the WMAs vs. the SPX.

EEM: Must hold 56-55 to keep its 2007-2026 big base breakout intact

The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) broke out from a massive 2007-2026 basing pattern that supports longer-term upside to 77 and 93. However, EEM has come under pressure and must hold 56-55 to maintain this bullish breakout. Within this zone, January’s monthly upside gap at 55.81-55.24 is a big level. We have viewed this gap as a bullish breakaway gap, but if EEM closes below the gap, it would suggest an exhaustion gap instead. Rising 6- and 12-month moving averages from 57.24 to 52.73 reflect a bullish monthly trend and offer potential supports.

SPX: Five closes below its 200-DMA with key tactical resistance at 6621-6651

The S&P 500 has struggled since closing below its 200-day moving average (DMA) last Thursday. Intra-day bulls have attempted rallies over the last three days, but each of those rallies have faded into the close. Key tactical resistance is 6621-6651, which is last Thursday’s breakdown level, Monday’s intra-day peak, and the rising 200-DMA. A decisive move above 6621-6651 is needed to firm up the tone for the SPX. Until then, the 6550-6521 support remains exposed along with last Friday’s low at 6473.

Russell 2000

IWM: Big support at 245-240 must hold for a breakout and retest pattern

Chart notes

IWM remains within a tactical leadership trend from its April-August 2025 double bottom relative to the S&P 500 as long as the rising 26- and 40-WMAs contain relative weakness for IWM.
If IWM fails to hold its breakout and breaks the secondary support, the 50% and 61.8% retracements of the April-January rally at 221.66 and 209.88, respectively, offer additional support with the rising 200-WMA near 205.
If the 245-240 area bends and does not decisively break, the 2021-2025 basing pattern projects IWM into the 320s on a longer-term basis.

Chart 1: iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) (top) and relative to the S&P 500 (bottom): Weekly chart