3-month VIX vs. VIX hit an oversold

The 3-month VIX versus the VIX (VIX3M/VIX) is a tactical sentiment gauge. It reached a mild oversold reading below 1.0 on Tuesday (11/18) before showing a small uptick out of oversold yesterday. This improvement is a constructive signal, but—similar to the prior signal that followed the “Trump Tariff Tweet” on October 10th—it did not occur alongside a true “washout” below a meaningful price support level.

While yesterday’s session was not a decisive victory for tactical bulls, given the long upper tail on the daily candlestick, the key S&P 500 support at 6550 (the Trump Tariff Tweet low) is holding for now. Maintaining this level remains critical for confirming that the recent sentiment improvement can translate into a more durable tactical rebound.

What is the 3-month VIX vs. VIX?

• VIX3M vs. VIX compares the CBOE 3-month Volatility Index (VIX3M), which tracks expected S&P 500 volatility over the next three months, with the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which measures expected volatility over the next month.

• Ratio > 1.0: Reflects a normally upward-sloping volatility term structure. This indicates a calm, risk-on environment and typically supports a steady grind higher in equities.'

• Ratio < 1.0: Signals an inverted term structure driven by near-term fear. This risk-off backdrop suggests market stress and often appears near tactical lows—particularly when the ratio plunges sharply below 1.0, marking a capitulation-style panic.

Chart 1: S&P 500 (top) and the 3-month VIX relative to the VIX (bottom)

NVDA reported blowout earnings and guidance yesterday, triggering a pre-opening rally for both the stock and the U.S. equity indices.

The broken 13-, 26-, and 40-day moving averages from 6733 to 6760 and an early October chart level at 6765 offer resistance on the S&P 500 ahead of the recent highs at 6870 and 6920. Once again, the 6550 level provides important tactical support.

Chart 2: S&P 500: Daily candle chart