30-year yield breaks out from H&S bottom

The 30-year Treasury Bond Yield (TYX) has broken higher from an early September into early December head and shoulders (H&S) bottom (12/2 Charted Market Insights). The push above the flat 200-day moving average and pattern neckline from 47.71 to 47.85 (4.771%-4.785%) confirms this pattern and suggests a rise in the 30-year yield (drop in bond prices) toward 49.98-50.27 or the 5% area. It would take a move back below 47.85-47.71 to suggest that this is a false break higher.

This H&S bottom complicates and delays the developing bottoming patterns for U.S. 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year note futures prices highlighted in the 11/25 Charted Market Insights.

Chart 1: 30-year Treasury Bond Yield (TYX): Daily chart

Tactically, the H&S bottom argues for a higher TYX (higher 30-year yield, lower bond price), but this runs counter to the larger September 2024–October 2025 rising wedge, which still makes a case for an intermediate-term decline in TYX (lower 30-year yield, higher bond prices).

The 26- and 40-week moving averages near 47.89-47.88 align with the H&S bottom neckline. Staying above these WMA favors a push higher in the 30-year yield, whereas a slipping back below them could reinforce the wedge and point to a lower 30-year yield once again.

Chart 2: 30-year Treasury Bond Yield (TYX): Weekly chart