A potential breakout and retest for BABA

We received a request to update the technicals for Alibaba (BABA), which we last covered in our Straight from the Chart blog on November 11, 2025. In summary, BABA has the potential to confirm a bullish breakout and retest pattern that is similar to the bullish setups on both the Invesco China Technology (CQQQ) and SPDR S&P China (GXC) ETFs.

BABA has corrected lower from early October to retest the breakout from an early 2022 into late 2025 big base pattern. This corrective phase has is forming a potential falling (aka bullish) wedge. Continuing to defend the rising 26- and 40-week moving averages (WMAs) near 150 and 138, respectively, along with the 145 to 134 area breakout levels, would keep the overall pattern bullish on BABA.

While this is an encouraging setup, it would take a decisive push above 157-159 (38.2% retracement of the 2020-2022 decline, wedge downtrend line, and declining 13-WMA) to confirm the bullish wedge and suggest upside back to 188-193 (50% retracement and October high) with longer-term potential into the 219 to 232 range (61.8% retracement and big base pattern counts).

BABA has a bullish turn and big base relative to the S&P 500. Holding above the relative WMAs would keep this constructive setup firmly in place with the potential for further leadership from BABA.

Chart 1: Alibaba Group Holding (BABA) (top) and relative to the S&P 500 (bottom)