A tactical triangle bottom for Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has defended its weekly Ichimoku cloud support since late November (December 3 Straight from the Chart) and is breaking out from a late November into mid January ascending triangle bottoming pattern.

Chart 1: Bitcoin (BTC/USD): Weekly Ichimoku cloud chart

Sustaining the rally above 94,640 would confirm a late November-January ascending triangle bottom that suggests further tactical upside to pattern counts at 104,500 and 108,000 with the declining 200-day moving average near 106,065. The rising 13-, 26, and 40-day moving averages from 91,942 down to 89,695 reinforce this tactically positive setup for Bitcoin.

A November-January relative bottoming process for Bitcoin vs. the S&P 500 corroborates the bullish absolute price setup.

The current tactical bottoms on both an absolute price basis and relative to the S&P 500 resemble the bullish setup for Bitcoin that formed between February and April 2025.

Chart 2: Bitcoin (BTC/USD) (top) and relative to the S&P 500 (bottom)

The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) is also breaking out from a late November-January ascending triangle bottom. Sustaining the rally above 53.66 would confirm this bullish setup and suggest further tactical upside to the 200-day moving average at 58.96 and pattern counts at 59.25-60.50. The improving 13-, 26, and 40-day moving averages from 51.54 down to 50.89 reinforce the triangle bottoming pattern for IBIT.

A November-January relative bottoming process for IBIT vs. the S&P 500 corroborates the bullish absolute price setup.

The current tactical bottoms on both an absolute price basis and relative to the S&P 500 resemble the bullish setup for Bitcoin that formed between February and April 2025.

Chart 3: iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT)) (top) and relative to the S&P 500 (bottom)