Big base breakout potential for Medtronic

We received a request to revisit Medtronic (MDT), which stalled after attempting to break out from a large 2022–2025 base in early October. The stock has since stabilized and recovered, with potential to confirm the big base as the broader Healthcare sector continues to show signs of bullish rotation and leadership (Nov 17 The Sector Edge).

MDT is scheduled to report earnings tomorrow (11/18) before the market open. We highlight the key levels heading into and beyond the print.

After failing to sustain the early October breakout, MDT corrected from 99 to 89 into early November. This weakness held near the rising 26- and 40-week moving averages (WMAs), which currently sit near 91.77-90.04 and continue to underpin the base building process for MDT. The rising 13-WMA near 94 offers initial support, with additional chart and 200-WMA support at 87.50-87.24.

A decisive breakout above 94.45–99.37—the zone defined by the 38.2% retracement of the 2021–2023 decline, the big base neckline, and the early October spike high—would confirm the base and open the door to:

• 101.29–102.37: 61.8% extension and 50% retracement

• 108–110: 100% extension and 61.8% retracement

• 121–122: big base target (161.8% extension)

While MDT has lagged the S&P 500 in recent years, it has stabilized vs. the market since mid 2024 and is showing bullish rotation so far in November.

Chart 1: Medtronic (MDT) (top) and relative to the S&P 500 (bottom)