Bitcoin did not complete its bullish wedge

We highlighted the potential for Bitcoin to break higher from a bullish wedge pattern in Straight from the Chart on November 10th. This pattern did not work, and Bitcoin continued to decline instead.

Last week’s break below bull market support at 45.55–43.55 on the 14-week RSI (price momentum) is a bearish development and opens risk for Bitcoin toward the 38.2% retracement of the November 2022–October 2025 rally near 83,990, and potentially down to the 50% retracement at 70,921.

Bitcoin has stabilized off today’s low at 89,183. If this proves to be a tactical low and Bitcoin can extend its rebound, key resistance stands at the prior lows from 103,736 to 107,271, with the weakening 13-, 26-, and 40-week moving averages (WMAs) forming a broader resistance band from 103,518 to 108,717-110,148. In our view, staying below this resistance zone keeps downside risk intact for Bitcoin.

Chart 1: Bitcoin (BTC/USD): Weekly candle chart