Bond futures bases not ready for prime time

The developing bases in U.S. 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year Treasury note futures that we highlighted in our Oct 23 The Chart Check have stalled. Key resistance levels held both heading into and following the October 29 FOMC meeting, where the committee cut the Fed Funds rate by another 25 bps but signaled uncertainty about whether additional easing will come at the December meeting.

Below, we highlight the key charts and levels to watch across the U.S. 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year Treasury futures as they continue to navigate potential late 2022 into late 2025 basing/bottoming patterns.

10-year T-note futures:

• Key support: 112' 20 to 112' 06

• Key resistance: 113' 29 to 114' 10

• Weekly moving averages (WMAs): Additional support at rising 26- and 40-WMAs from 111 '26 to 111' 14. The declining 200-WMA near 113' 04 provides an overhang

Chart 1: U.S. 10-year Treasury note futures

Chart 2: U.S. 10-year Treasury note futures with weekly moving averages

5-year T-note futures:

• Key support: 109' 05 to 108' 31

• Key resistance: 110' 06 to 110' 22-110' 28

• Weekly moving averages (WMAs): Additional support the declining 200-WMA at 108' 25 and rising 26- and 40-WMAs from 108' 25 to 108' 14

Chart 3: U.S. 5-year Treasury note futures

Chart 4: U.S. 5-year Treasury note futures with weekly moving averages

2-year T-note futures:

• Key support: 104' 02 to 104' 00

• Key resistance: 104' 16 to 104' 25

• Weekly moving averages (WMAs): Additional support at the rising 26- and 40-WMAs from 103' 29 to 103' 24 and the declining 200-WMA at 103' 09.

Chart 5: U.S. 2-year Treasury note futures

Chart 6: U.S. 2-year Treasury note futures with weekly moving averages