Charted Market Insights - Dec. 9, 2025

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Charted Market Insights -09 Dec 2025 - Sentiment catch-up trade, risk-on ratios, commodity. Download • 2.34MB

Sentiment catch-up trade, risk-on ratios, commodity ETFs

The chase is on as individual investors get more bullish

Individual investors got more bullish last week in the face of a resilient U.S. equity market. The spread between AAII Bulls and AAII Bears broke higher with plenty of room to run prior to hitting overbought complacent levels. This, as well as positive seasonality for December (11/28 The Chart Check and 12/3 Straight from the Chart), suggests a catch-up trade to 7000+ on the S&P 500 (SPX) into year-end. Tactical SPX support remains 6775-6763.

Risk-on signals intact for many equity relative ratio charts

Risk-on signals remain intact across several key equity relative ratio charts. The High Beta (SPHB) vs. Low Volatility (SPLV) chart formed a higher low in late November and continued to new highs to send a risk-on message into early December. Semiconductors (SMH) remain bullish and risk-on with 2-decade+ highs relative to Technology (XLK). Consumer Discretionary is holding its bullish breakout relative to Consumer Staples on both a market cap weight (XLY vs. XLP) and equal weight basis (RSPD vs. RSPS). Growth leadership is also reasserting itself (Dec 8 The Sector Edge), with the NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) holding its breakout relative to the S&P 500 (SPY). Finally, small caps (IWM) are holding support and have the potential for tactical leadership vs. large caps (SPY).

Commodity Index (DBC): 1-year+ base breakout watch

The Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking ETF (DBC) is set up to break out from a mid 2024 into late 2025 basing pattern. A decisive push above 23.32-23.61 (pattern neckline and rising 200-week moving average (WMAs)) would confirm this bottom and suggest further upside to pattern counts at 25.00 and 26.75. Rising 13-, 26-, and 40-WMAs from 22.71 down to 22.12 reinforce this bottoming process along with chart supports at 22.00 and 21.59.

Base Metals Fund (DBB) is breaking higher from a big base

The Invesco DB Base Metals Fund (DBB) is breaking out from a mid 2022 into late 2025 big base. Sustaining the push above the 22.00-21.83 zone would keep this breakout in place and suggest upside potential back to the early 2022 peak near 27. The rising 13-week moving average and last higher low prior to the breakout offer additional support at 21.39-21.14. We highlighted bottoming signs for DBB in an Oct 6 Straight from the Chart blog post.

Copper Miners (COPX): Bull flag and big base point higher

We highlighted a bullish view for the Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX) in our Sep 8 The Sector Edge. COPX remains positive and has probed above the 2011 highs at 62.20-62.95, breaking out from a bullish flag pattern and a massive 2011-2025 big base. Holding the 63-62 area keeps the immediate pattern bullish with upside potential 78.82 (61.8% extension), 93.36 (100% extension), and then toward 114.25-116.00 (161.8% extension and big base count) longer term. If COPX begins to struggle, the lower end of the bullish flag offers additional support at 56.93.

Gold Miners (GDX): A 2010-2025 big base breakout targets 116-121 longer term

The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) has a bullish breakout and retest from a 15-year big base. Staying above the 66.98-63.80 zone keeps this bullish pattern intact with longer-term upside potential to 116-121. Holding above or near the rising 13-week moving average at 76.10 would favor an October into December/January bullish consolidation for GDX. The 72.45 and 68.13 levels mark higher lows and offer support above the breakout zone.

Sentiment

The chase is on as individual investors get more bullish

Individual investors got more bullish last week in the face of a resilient U.S. equity market. The spread between AAII Bulls and AAII Bears broke higher with plenty of room to run prior to hitting overbought complacent levels. This, as well as positive seasonality for December (11/28 The Chart Check and 12/3 Straight from the Chart), suggests a catch-up trade to 7000+ on the S&P 500 (SPX) into year-end. Tactical SPX support remains 6775-6763.

Chart 1: S&P 500 (top) and the spread between AAII Bulls and AAII Bears (bottom): Weekly chart

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies, AAII

Risk-on signals intact for many equity relative ratio charts

Risk-on signals remain intact across several key equity relative ratio charts. The High Beta (SPHB) vs. Low Volatility (SPLV) chart formed a higher low in late November and continued to new highs to send a risk-on message into early December. Semiconductors (SMH) remain bullish and risk-on with 2-decade+ highs relative to Technology (XLK). Consumer Discretionary is holding its bullish breakout relative to Consumer Staples on both a market cap weight (XLY vs. XLP) and equal weight basis (RSPD vs. RSPS). Growth leadership is also reasserting itself (Dec 8 The Sector Edge), with the NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) holding its breakout relative to the S&P 500 (SPY). Finally, small caps (IWM) are holding support and have the potential for tactical leadership vs. large caps (SPY).

High Beta hits new risk-on highs relative to Low Volatility

The High Beta (SPHB) vs. Low Volatility (SPLV) chart formed a higher low in late November and continued to new highs to send a risk-on message into early December.

Chart 2: High Beta relative to Low Volatility (SPHB versus SPLV)

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Semiconductors extend to multi-year highs relative to Technology

Semiconductors (SMH) remain bullish and risk-on with 2-decade+ highs relative to Technology (XLK). The potential is for a massive relative price base and continued leadership for SMH.

Chart 3: Semiconductors relative to Technology (SMH vs. XLK)

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Cyclical Discretionary holds breakout relative to Defensive Staples

Consumer Discretionary is holding its bullish breakout relative to Consumer Staples on both a market cap weight (XLY vs. XLP) and equal weight basis (RSPD vs. RSPS). Continuing to do so would maintain a risk-on breakout for cyclical Discretionary relative to defensive Staples. We view this as bullish but would like to see continued new relative highs for Discretionary on both of these relative ratio charts.

Chart 4: Discretionary relative to Staples (XLY vs. XLP)

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Equal weight Discretionary holds its bullish breakout versus equal weight Staples

Equal weight Discretionary (RSPD) is holding its bullish breakout relative to equal weight Staples (RSPS). This suggests a positive tilt for the average Discretionary stock versus the average Staples stock.

Chart 5: Equal weight Discretionary relative to equal weight Staples (RSPD vs. RSPS)

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

NASDAQ 100 holds its breakout relative to the S&P 500

Growth leadership has reasserted itself (Dec 8 The Sector Edge). Continuing to hold the bullish breakout for the NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) relative to the S&P 500 (SPY) would favor a resumption of Growth leadership after brief pause in November.

Chart 6: NASDAQ 100 relative to the S&P 500 (QQQ vs. SPY)

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Small caps stabilize relative to large caps

Taking a step back and looking at the weekly chart, small caps (IWM) are holding support and have the potential for tactical leadership vs. large caps (SPY).

Chart 7: Small caps relative to large caps (IWM vs. SPY)

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Cross asset

Commodity Index (DBC): 1-year+ base breakout watch

The Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking ETF (DBC) is set up to break out from a mid 2024 into late 2025 basing pattern. A decisive push above 23.32-23.61 (pattern neckline and rising 200-week moving average (WMAs)) would confirm this bottom and suggest further upside to pattern counts at 25.00 and 26.75. Rising 13-, 26-, and 40-WMAs from 22.71 down to 22.12 reinforce this bottoming process along with chart supports at 22.00 and 21.59.

Chart notes

·         A rising 200-WMA and successful defense of the 50% retracement of the 2020 to 2022 rally as support earlier this year suggest that DBC remains in a secularly bullish trend. Regaining the 200-WMA is critical for maintaining this view.

·         We highlighted bottoming signs for DBC in an Oct 7 Straight from the Chart blog post.

Chart 8: Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking ETF (DBC)

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Base Metals Fund (DBB) is breaking higher from a big base

The Invesco DB Base Metals Fund (DBB) is breaking out from a mid 2022 into late 2025 big base. Sustaining the push above the 22.00-21.83 zone would keep this breakout in place and suggest upside potential back to the early 2022 peak near 27. The rising 13-week moving average and last higher low prior to the breakout offer additional support at 21.39-21.14. We highlighted bottoming signs for DBB in an Oct 6 Straight from the Chart blog post.

Chart 9: Invesco DB Base Metals Fund (DBB)

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Copper Miners (COPX): Bull flag and big base point higher

We highlighted a bullish view for the Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX) in our Sep 8 The Sector Edge. COPX remains positive and has probed above the 2011 highs at 62.20-62.95, breaking out from a bullish flag pattern and a massive 2011-2025 big base. Holding the 63-62 area keeps the immediate pattern bullish with upside potential 78.82 (61.8% extension), 93.36 (100% extension), and then toward 114.25-116.00 (161.8% extension and big base count) longer term. If COPX begins to struggle, the lower end of the bullish flag offers additional support at 56.93.

Chart 10: Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX)

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Gold Miners (GDX): A 2010-2025 big base breakout targets 116-121 longer term

The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) has a bullish breakout and retest from a 15-year big base. Staying above the 66.98-63.80 zone keeps this bullish pattern intact with longer-term upside potential to 116-121. Holding above or near the rising 13-week moving average at 76.10 would favor an October into December/January bullish consolidation for GDX. The 72.45 and 68.13 levels mark higher lows and offer support above the breakout zone.

Chart 11: VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

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