Charted Market Insights - Jan. 13, 2026

*** Please see the bottom of this report for important disclaimers and disclosures.***

Charted Market Insights - 13 Jan 2026 - The charts that matter as 2026 begins.pdf Download PDF • 4.42MB

The charts that matter as 2026 begins

SPX: Erratic returns in years following three consecutive up years

Following a 19.4% decline in 2022—the most recent mid-term election year—the S&P 500 (SPX) has rallied for three consecutive years, posting double-digit gains of 24.2% in 2023, 23.3% in 2024, and 16.4% in 2025. Three straight up years following a down year have occurred only 13 times since 1928. Under this historical setup, subsequent SPX returns have been erratic, averaging just 2.7% with a -1.1% median return, and the index has managed to extend the streak to a fourth consecutive up year in only five of the prior 12 occurrences—just 42% of the time.

Presidential Cycle: 2026 is the mid-term year – the weakest year of the cycle

2026 is Year 2 (the mid-term year) of the U.S. Presidential Cycle, which has historically been the weakest year of the four-year cycle. Across the 24 mid-term years from 1930 to 2022, the SPX has been higher only 54% of the time, with average and median returns of 3.3% and 0.6%, respectively.

Risk: Mid-term years tend to be even weaker after an above average Year 1

The SPX’s 16.4% gain in 2025 marked a well-above-average return for Year 1 of the Presidential Cycle. A key risk for 2026 is that mid-term years have historically been much weaker following an above average Year 1. In this scenario, the SPX has been down 62% of the time, with average and median returns of just 0.9% and -4.7%, respectively.

A middle to later cycle secular bull market with potential to SPX 10,000+

A secular bull market is a long-term uptrend that spans multiple business cycles and contains several cyclical bull and bear markets tied to economic expansions and contractions. In 2026, the S&P 500 will enter the 13th year of its current secular bull market, which began with the April 2013 breakout above the prior 2000 and 2007 highs. Historical precedents—the 1950–1966 and 1980–2000 secular bull markets—lasted roughly 16 and 20 years, respectively. By comparison, the current secular bull market appears mid-to-late cycle but could persist into 2029–2033, with upside potential for the SPX toward 10,000 and beyond.

SPX could rally to 7300-7400 prior to a mid-term year correction

The SPX is breaking higher from a late 2025 into early 2026 bullish consolidation. Sustaining the rally above 6920 would keep the immediate pattern bullish with upside potential to 7300. In addition, the mid 2025 breakout above 6100-6147 favors upside into the 7400s. In our view, these patterns suggest that the SPX could rally to 7300-7400 prior to a mid-term year correction. Key tactical supports come in at 6824 and 6720 (early January and mid December lows), but the last major higher low from late November at 6521 is a major SPX support for 2026. We also cover the NASDAQ 100 (NDX) inside this report.

Russell 2000: Bullish trend for volume A-D line and big breakout potential in 2026

The Russell 2000 (IWM) enters 2026 with a choppy breakout from a big base pattern dating back to late 2021. Prior to this push to new highs on IWM, the Russell 2000 advance-decline (A-D) volume line increased to new highs throughout 2025. History suggests that strength for the A-D volume line precedes bullish breakouts for IWM, which was the case for the prior upside breakouts for IWM in early 2013, late 2016, and late 2020. If IWM holds the 245 to 228 area in 2026, we have confidence in a bullish breakout for small caps with the potential for IWM to rally to 325.

2026: A confirmed shift to EM leadership vs. the U.S.

2026 could be the year for a sustained shift to leadership for emerging markets relative to the U.S. Emerging markets (EEM) is forming a 2-year head & shoulders (H&S) bottom relative to the U.S. (SPY). Within this bottoming pattern, EEM has outperformed the SPY over the last year, but a decisive breakout from the H&S bottom in early 2026 would suggest a sustained shift to leadership for emerging markets after ~15 years of U.S. outperformance.

EM enters 2026 with a breakout and retest from a double bottom vs. EAFE

EM is bullish relative to EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and the Far East) and enters 2026 with a breakout and retest from a 2-year double bottom. This pattern favors leadership from EM (EEM) relative to EAFE (EFA) in 2026 and potentially beyond.

The U.S. is at risk relative to EAFE entering 2026

The U.S. (SPY) peaked relative to EAFE (EFA) in December 2024. While the long-term leadership trend for SPY vs. EFA from late 2007 remains intact, SPY is lackluster and at risk relative to EFA entering 2026. The April 2025 low and August 2022 high provide big support for SPY vs. EFA. A move below this level, which aligns with the rising 200-week moving average, would suggest a sustained loss of U.S. leadership and a period of relative strength for EFA.

Big bases across global markets

The following are ETFs and indices that have recent upside breakouts from big base or the potential for major upside breakouts in 2026: The iShares MSCI EAFE Index Fund ETF (EFA), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM), Japan's Nikkei 225, China's Shanghai Composite, iShares Latin America 40 ETF (ILF), iShares MSCI Australia Index Fund ETF (EWA), iShares MSCI Taiwan Index Fund ETF (EWT), iShares MSCI Belgium Index Fund (EWK), iShares MSCI Netherlands Index Fund (EWK), SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE), and Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJT).

Banks (KBE): Positioned for a breakout from a 2007-2026 big base

2026 could be the year when the SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) decisively rallies above its pre-financial peak from October 2007 at 60.41. Clearing this high plus the late 2024 peak at 63.74 is the signal to watch in 2026 and would confirm that KBE is following the path of EFA and EEM and completing a massive bottoming pattern dating back to 2007. Under this scenario, KBE shows longer-term upside potential to 83, 90, and even 112. Until this breakout occurs, the rising 6-, 12-, and 24-month moving averages at 59.82-54.37 underpin this bullish backdrop.

Commodity Index (DBC): Positioned for a 1-year+ base breakout entering 2026

Entering 2026, the Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking ETF (DBC) is set up to break out from a mid 2024 into early 2026 basing pattern. A decisive push above 23.32-23.60 (pattern neckline and 200-week moving average (WMA)) would confirm this bottom and suggest further upside to pattern counts at 25.00 and 26.75. Rising 13-, 26-, and 40-WMAs from 22.90 down to 22.27 reinforce this bottoming process along with chart supports at 22.00 and 21.59. In addition, both DBC and the Invesco DB Base Metals Fund (DBB) are also forming big bases dating back to early 2009. The SPDR S&P Global Natural Resources ETF (GNR) is set up for a major upside breakout in 2026.

Gold shows long-term measured move targets at 6000 and 8000

Gold remains within a bullish long-term trend. Log scale measured moves on the monthly chart support the case for longer-term upside to 6000 and 8000 (Oct 21 Charted Market Insights). The top of a long-term rising channel aligns with 6000 in mid 2026 and with 8000 in early 2030. The rising 6-month moving average near 4074 provides a risk management level ahead of the rising 6- and 12-month moving averages at 3631 and 3050, respectively.

Copper: A mid 2025-early 2026 basing pattern bodes well entering 2026

Copper futures have improved. A mid 2025-early 2026 basing pattern bodes well for copper entering 2026. A sustained rally beyond 5.90-6.11 would confirm this basing pattern and suggest initial strength to 6.50 and longer-term upside to 7.40. Rising 13-, 26-, and 40-day moving averages at 5.82, 5.63, and 5.45, respectively, underpin this constructive pattern, but holding the last week’s higher low at 5.70 is the key for the tactical bulls on copper. See the report for charts on Silver and Platinum.

SPX: Three up years is a tough act to follow

SPX: Erratic returns in years following three consecutive up years

Following a 19.4% decline in 2022—the most recent mid-term election year—the S&P 500 (SPX) has rallied for three consecutive years, posting double-digit gains of 24.2% in 2023, 23.3% in 2024, and 16.4% in 2025. Three straight up years following a down year have occurred only 13 times since 1928. Under this historical setup, subsequent SPX returns have been erratic, averaging just 2.7% with a -1.1% median return, and the index has managed to extend the streak to a fourth consecutive up year in only five of the prior 12 occurrences—just 42% of the time.

Table notes

·         The areas highlighted in gray on the left side of the table below represent the third up year in a streak of three consecutive years with double digit returns.

·         2026 is the mid-term year of the U.S. Presidential Cycle. The areas in gray on the right side of the table highlight mid-term years.

·         The five years in which the SPX achieved four consecutive up years: 1945, 1952, 1985, 1998, and 2006.

·         The seven years in which the SPX failed to rally in the year following three up years in a row: 1957, 1966, 1973, 1981, 1994, 2015, and 2022.

Table 1: S&P 500 returns in the year following three consecutive up years

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Presidential Cycle enters the mid-term year

Presidential Cycle: 2026 is the mid-term year – the weakest year of the cycle

2026 is Year 2 (the mid-term year) of the U.S. Presidential Cycle, which has historically been the weakest year of the four-year cycle. Across the 24 mid-term years from 1930 to 2022, the SPX has been higher only 54% of the time, with average and median returns of 3.3% and 0.6%, respectively.

Table 2: S&P 500 annual returns for the Presidential Cycle by year and for all years: 1928-2025

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Risk: Mid-term years tend to be even weaker after an above average Year 1

The SPX’s 16.4% gain in 2025 marked a well-above-average return for Year 1 of the Presidential Cycle. A key risk for 2026 is that mid-term years have historically been much weaker following an above average Year 1. In this scenario, the SPX has been down 62% of the time, with average and median returns of just 0.9% and -4.7%, respectively.

Table 3: S&P 500 Presidential Year 2 (mid-term year) returns after an above average Year 1, a below average Year 1, and for all mid-term years

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

1H Year 2 is weakest semiannual period, 1H Year 3 is strongest

The first half (1H) of 2026 coincides with 1H Year 2, which is the weakest semiannual period of the entire 4-year Presidential Cycle. Data from 1930-2022 show that the SPX has traded higher just 50% of the time during the first half of the mid-term year with average and median returns of -1.4% and -0.6%, respectively. 2H of Year 2 improves drastically from 1H Year 2, particularly in 4Q, but the SPX shines in 1H Year 3, which is the best semiannual period of the cycle.

Table 4: Semiannual returns for the U.S. Presidential Cycle

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

SPX is up 72% of the time in 4Q Year 1 but is not bullish after that until 4Q Year 2

The SPX has rallied 72% of the time in 4Q Year 1 of the Presidential Cycle. 2025 followed this bullish pattern with a 4Q rally of 2.4% on the SPX. However, historical data show that the SPX has struggled in 1Q, 2Q, and 3Q of the mid-term year before turning bullish again in 4Q Year 2, 1Q Year 3, and 2Q Year 3.

Table 5: Quarterly returns for Year 1, Year 2, Year 3, and Year 4 of the U.S. Presidential Cycle

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Trump’s 2^nd term had a solid Year 1, but there is risk of mean-reversion in Year 2

The Presidential Cycle shows stronger SPX returns during the 13 Democrat and 15 First term cycles and weaker returns during the 12 Republican and 10 Non-first term cycles going back to 1928. The Trump 2025-2028 cycle, a Republican and Non-first term cycle, had a solid Year 1 return of 16.4%, outpacing the average Presidential Cycle as well as each of these historical scenarios. However, the risk of downward mean reversion remains elevated, as the SPX has tended to trade sideways to lower from late Year 1 into late Year 2 across all Presidential Cycle scenarios.

Chart 1: Trump 2025-2028 and U.S. Presidential Cycle scenarios

Source: Suttmeier Technical Strategies

S&P 500

A middle to later cycle secular bull market with potential to SPX 10,000+

A secular bull market is a long-term uptrend that spans multiple business cycles and contains several cyclical bull and bear markets tied to economic expansions and contractions. In 2026, the S&P 500 will enter the 13th year of its current secular bull market, which began with the April 2013 breakout above the prior 2000 and 2007 highs. Historical precedents—the 1950–1966 and 1980–2000 secular bull markets—lasted roughly 16 and 20 years, respectively. By comparison, the current secular bull market appears mid-to-late cycle but could persist into 2029–2033, with upside potential for the SPX toward 10,000 and beyond.

Chart notes

• A secular bull market is a long-term uptrend that spans multiple business cycles and includes several cyclical bull and bear phases tied to economic expansions and contractions.

  • SPX secular bull markets: 1950-1966, 1980-2000, and 2013-present.

• Secular bear markets are the opposite of secular bull markets. A secular bear market is a long-term period of sideways-to-downward price action that spans multiple business cycles and includes cyclical bull and bear markets that correspond to periods of economic expansion and contraction.

  • SPX secular bear markets: 1937-1950, 1966-1980, and 2000-2013.

Chart 2: S&P 500 with secular bull markets and secular bear markets: Monthly logarithmic scale chart

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

SPX could rally to 7300-7400 prior to a mid-term year correction

The SPX is breaking higher from a late 2025 into early 2026 bullish consolidation. Sustaining the rally above 6920 would keep the immediate pattern bullish with upside potential to 7300. In addition, the mid 2025 breakout above 6100-6147 favors upside into the 7400s. In our view, these patterns suggest that the SPX could rally to 7300-7400 prior to a mid-term year correction. Key tactical supports come in at 6824 and 6720 (early January and mid December lows), but the last major higher low from late November at 6521 is a major SPX support for 2026.

Chart notes

·         Recent notes and blog posts have shown that solid market breadth indicators have supported the case for the SPX to rally to new highs.

·         Rising 13-, 26-, and 40-week moving averages underpin the uptrend from the April 2025 low on the SPX.

Chart 3: S&P 500: Weekly chart

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

NASDAQ 100

NDX: Bullish consolidation patterns target 27,600-27,800

Similar the SPX, the NASDAQ 100 (NDX) has bullish consolidation patterns that suggest upside potential in 2026 prior to a mid-term year corrective phase. Sustaining a breakout from a late 2025 into early 2026 bullish consolidation would suggest potential to 27,600-27,800, which aligns with the upside target for the mid 2025 breakout above the 22,100-22,200 area on the NDX. Pushing above the early December high at 25,835 and the late October peak at 26,182 would increase confidence. Key tactical supports are 25,086 (early January low) and 24,647 (mid December low), but the higher low from late November at 23,850 provides a major support for 2026.

Chart notes

·         Recent notes and blog posts have shown that solid market breadth indicators have supported the case for the NDX to rally to new highs.

·         Rising 13-, 26-, and 40-week moving averages underpin the uptrend from the April 2025 low on the NDX.

Chart 4: NASDAQ 100: Weekly chart

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Russell 2000

Russell 2000: Bullish trend for volume A-D line and big breakout potential in 2026

The Russell 2000 (IWM) enters 2026 with a choppy breakout from a big base pattern dating back to late 2021. Prior to this push to new highs on IWM, the Russell 2000 advance-decline (A-D) volume line increased to new highs throughout 2025. History suggests that strength for the A-D volume line precedes bullish breakouts for IWM, which was the case for the prior upside breakouts for IWM in early 2013, late 2016, and late 2020. If IWM holds the 245 to 228 area in 2026, we have confidence in a bullish breakout for small caps with the potential for IWM to rally to 325.

Chart notes

·         In addition to small caps and the Russell 2000, the S&P MidCap 400 (MDY), NYSE Composite, and S&P 500 Equal Weight (RSP) also have strong patterns heading into 2026 – see recent reports for more on these indices.

Chart 5: iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) (top) and Russell 2000 advance-decline volume line (bottom)

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Smalls caps begin 2026 with tactical leadership relative to large caps

IWM begins 2026 with tactical leadership relative to the S&P 500 (SPY). The weekly relative price chart for the IWM (small caps) versus the SPY (large caps) shows a breakout from a double bottom off of the April and August 2025 lows as well as a bullish retest of that breakout and positively shifting 26- and 40-week moving averages WMAs) in mid November. While above the 26- and 40-WMAs, IWM has potential for tactical leadership toward the declining relative price 200-WMA vs. SPY.

Chart 6: iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) relative to the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY): Weekly chart

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Emerging markets bottoming vs. the U.S.

2026: A confirmed shift to EM leadership vs. the U.S.

2026 could be the year for a sustained shift to leadership for emerging markets relative to the U.S. Emerging markets (EEM) is forming a 2-year head & shoulders (H&S) bottom relative to the U.S. (SPY). Within this bottoming pattern, EEM has outperformed the SPY over the last year, but a decisive breakout from the H&S bottom in early 2026 would suggest a sustained shift to leadership for emerging markets after ~15 years of U.S. outperformance.

Chart 7: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) relative to the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY): Daily chart

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Breakout and retest from a double bottom for EM vs. EAFE

EM enters 2026 with a breakout and retest from a double bottom vs. EAFE

EM is bullish relative to EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and the Far East) and enters 2026 with a breakout and retest from a 2-year double bottom. This pattern favors leadership from EM (EEM) relative to EAFE (EFA) in 2026 and potentially beyond.

Chart 8: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) relative to the iShares MSCI EAFE Index Fund ETF (EFA): Weekly chart

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

U.S. lackluster and at risk relative EAFE

The U.S. is at risk relative to EAFE entering 2026

The U.S. (SPY) peaked relative to EAFE (EFA) in December 2024. While the long-term leadership trend for SPY vs. EFA from late 2007 remains intact, SPY is lackluster and at risk relative to EFA entering 2026. The April 2025 low and August 2022 high provide big support for SPY vs. EFA. A move below this level, which aligns with the rising 200-week moving average, would suggest a sustained loss of U.S. leadership and a period of relative strength for EFA.

Chart 9: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) relative to the iShares MSCI EAFE Index Fund ETF (EFA): Weekly chart

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Big bases around the world

EAFE (EFA): A 2007-2025 big base bullish for 2026

In mid 2025, the iShares MSCI EAFE Index Fund ETF (EFA) broke out from a massive basing pattern dating back to late 2007 (Jun 16 The Stock Pulse). EFA enters 2026 with plenty of room to run toward big base pattern counts at 112 and 139. Rising 6- and 12-month moving averages in the 95 to 90 areas, respectively, reinforce this bullish setup for EFA ahead of the big breakout points from 86.50 down to 82.29.

Chart notes

·         The Vanguard FTSE All World Ex US ETF (VEU) also has broken out from a massive basing pattern.

Chart 10: iShares MSCI EAFE Index Fund ETF (EFA): Monthly chart

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Emerging Markets (EEM) on bullish breakout watch from a 2007-2026 big base

The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) enters 2026 with the potential for a major upside breakout from a late 2007-early 2026 big base. A decisive rally above 55.73-58.29 would confirm this massive 18-year triangle to suggest longer-term upside to pattern counts at 77 and 93. Until then, the January 2026 monthly upside gap at 55.81-55.24 and rising 6- and 12-month moving averages from 54.22 down to 49.86 reinforce this bullish setup.

Chart notes

·         We have also highlighted a bullish setup for the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex China ETF (EMXC) in our research notes and in the Straight from the Chart blog.

Chart 11: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM): Monthly chart

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Japan’s Nikkei 225: 35-year base breakout counts to 70,000

Japan Nikkei 225 attempted a big base breakout in early 2024 but struggled to hold this move prior to a choppy trading range into 2025 with spike lows at 31,156-30,792 and a spike high at 42,426. Mid 2025 finally saw a decisive breakout from a big base 35 years in the making for the Nikkei 225. The index enters 2026 with a test of an initial upside count at 53,800, but the massive base favors longer-term upside to 70,000. The rising 6-month moving average and November low provide a risk management support zone at 49,034-48,235.

Chart notes

·         We highlighted bullish setups for both the iShares MSCI Japan Index Fund ETF (EWJ) and the WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund (DXY) in our August 19 Charted Market Insights.

Chart 12: Japan’s Nikkei 225: Monthly chart

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

China’s Shanghai Comp: 10-year big base counts to 5000

China’s Shanghai Composite enters 2026 with bullish momentum from its August 2025 breakout from a 10-year big base on the rally above the 3675-3732 area. This breakout supports the case for longer-term upside to 5000 (pattern count) and 5178 (mid 2015 peak). The rising 26- and 40-week moving averages from 3869 down to 3698 reinforce this bullish backdrop on the Shanghai Composite.

Chart notes

·         We most recently highlighted bullish breakout and retest patterns for Invesco China Technology ETF (CQQQ), iShares China Large Cap ETF (FXI), and SPDR S&P China ETF (GXC) in our January 3 The Chart Check.

Chart 13: China’s Shanghai Composite: Weekly chart

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Latin America (ILF) bullish on a double bottom breakout and retest pattern

The iShares Latin America 40 ETF (ILF) broke out from a 2022-2025 double bottom in early November (Straight from the Chart blog) and retested this breakout in mid December, keeping ILF bullish entering 2026. While above the breakout points, which offer key support at 29.84 and 29.08, ILF shows upside potential to 32.75 initially and then toward the double bottom counts at 37.00 and 38.75 with the January 2018 peak at 39.54. Rising weekly moving averages underpin the bullish backdrop for ILF.

Chart notes

·         We highlighted the iShares MSCI Peru ETF (EPU) as bullish in our July 16 The Stock Pulse and flagged bullish setups for the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) and iShares MSCI Mexico ETF (EWW) in our October 29 The Stock Pulse.

Chart 14: iShares Latin America 40 ETF (ILF): Weekly chart

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Australia (EWA): Positioned for a big base breakout

The iShares MSCI Australia Index Fund ETF (EWA) is positioned for a 2026 breakout from a mid 2023 into 2026 big base as well as for an even bigger breakout from a massive base going back to late 2008. A decisive rally above 27.43-27.57 would confirm this view, with the basing pattern from late 2023 projecting a rally to pattern counts at 34.25 and 35.50, which coincide with the late 2007 peak at 34.83. Until then, holding key monthly moving average and chart supports from 25.80 down to 24.94 would keep the pattern bullish.

Chart notes

·         We highlighted this potentially bullish setup for EWA in our October 29 The Stock Flash.

Chart 15: iShares MSCI Australia Index Fund ETF (EWA): Monthly chart

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Taiwan (EWT): On bullish breakout watch from a 4-year big base

The iShares MSCI Taiwan Index ETF (EWT) remains bullish after a July 2025 breakout from a late 2022 into early 2025 double bottom and an early September retest of the breakout (Sep 5 Straight from the Chart). Rising 13-, 26-, and 40-week moving averages at 64.64, 62.91, and 59.78, respectively, reinforce this bullish backdrop as EWT consolidates from its late October peak at 67.58. In our view, EWT is forming a bigger base. A decisive rally above the 2025 and 2022 peaks at 67.58-68.40 would confirm this view refocusing upside potential to 75.50 (double bottom count) and then higher toward 95.50 on a longer-term basis. The double bottom breakout zone at 57.69-57.00 offers additional support.

Chart 16: iShares MSCI Taiwan Index ETF (EWT): Weekly chart

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Belgium (EWK): Remains solid entering 2026 after a big base breakout and retest

The iShares MSCI Belgium Index Fund ETF (EWK) completed a bullish breakout and successful retest from an early-2018 to late-2025 big base. Continuing to hold the 23.23–23.00 breakout zone would keep the pattern bullish with upside potential beyond the 2007 peak at 28.64 toward the big base pattern counts at 32.00 and 34.00. Rising 13-, 26-, and 40-week moving averages at 24.20, 22.61, and 22.91, respectively, reinforce the breakout and the prevailing uptrend.

Chart notes

·         We highlighted the bullish breakout and retest for EWK in our Straight from the Chart blog in mid November. This setup remains constructive for EWK moving into 2026.

Chart 17: iShares MSCI Belgium Index Fund ETF (EWK): Weekly chart

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Netherlands (EWN): 2021-2025 big base points higher to 74

The iShares MSCI Netherlands Index Fund ETF (EWN) enters 2026 with a bullish breakout and retest from a 2021-2025 big base. The tactical breakout from an October-January bullish consolidation targets 64 initially, but the big base supports the case for longer-term upside to 74.60. Holding the early January weekly upside gap at 58.81-58.79 keeps the immediate pattern bullish. The 55.00-54.66 and 52.00-50.56 areas offer bigger 2026 support zones.

Chart 18: iShares MSCI Netherlands Index Fund ETF (EWN): Weekly chart

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Banks (KBE): Positioned for a breakout from a 2007-2026 big base

2026 could be the year when the SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) decisively rallies above its pre-financial peak from October 2007 at 60.41. Clearing this high plus the late 2024 peak at 63.74 is the signal to watch in 2026 and would confirm that KBE is following the path of EFA and EEM and completing a massive bottoming pattern dating back to 2007. Under this scenario, KBE shows longer-term upside potential to 83, 90, and even 112. Until this breakout occurs, the rising 6-, 12-, and 24-month moving averages at 59.82-54.37 underpin this bullish backdrop.

Chart 20: SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE): Monthly chart

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Dow Transports enter 2026 with a breakout from a 2011-2026 triangle pattern

The Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJT) enters 2026 with a big breakout from the 2011-2026 bullish triangle that we highlighted in Straight from the Chart on November 25, 2025. Holding 17,845-17,300 would keep this bullish triangle firmly in place with longer-term upside potential to 23,000 and 23,900. Additional supports come in at 16,900 and 16,480. Rising weekly moving averages underpin this bullish bias for DJT.

Chart 21: Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJT): Weekly chart

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Massive bases developing for commodity ETFs

Commodity Index (DBC): Positioned for a 1-year+ base breakout entering 2026

Entering 2026, the Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking ETF (DBC) is set up to break out from a mid 2024 into early 2026 basing pattern. A decisive push above 23.32-23.60 (pattern neckline and 200-week moving average (WMA)) would confirm this bottom and suggest further upside to pattern counts at 25.00 and 26.75. Rising 13-, 26-, and 40-WMAs from 22.90 down to 22.27 reinforce this bottoming process along with chart supports at 22.00 and 21.59.

Chart notes

·         We highlighted bottoming signs for DBC in an Oct 7 Straight from the Chart blog post.

Chart 22: Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking ETF (DBC): Weekly chart

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

DBC shows signs of an even bigger base going back to 2009

DBC could be forming a massive head and shoulders bottom dating back to early 2009. This bullish setup makes the case for DBC to rally to 30.63-32.00 (June 2022 and May 2011 peaks) and 32.34 (61.8% extension of the 2020-2022 rally projected from the April 2025 low) where a break higher would confirm the major bottoming pattern and suggest further upside to 40 (100% extension) and then 46.32 (2008 peak).

Chart 23: Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking ETF (DBC): Monthly chart

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Base Metals Fund (DBB) enters 2026 with a big base breakout

The Invesco DB Base Metals Fund (DBB) has broken out from a mid 2022 into late 2025 big base. The push above the 22.00-21.83 zone confirmed the base and suggests upside potential back to the early 2022 peak near 27. Price levels from 22.24 down to 21.14, along with rising-13- and 26-week moving averages at 22.40 and 21.23, respectively, provide a key support zone on DBB for 2026. 

Chart notes

·         We highlighted bottoming signs for DBB in an Oct 6 Straight from the Chart blog post.

Chart 24: Invesco DB Base Metals Fund (DBB): Weekly chart

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

DBB has the potential for a massive base dating back to early 2009

Similar to DBC, DBB may be forming a massive bottoming pattern dating back to early 2009. Clearing the 2011 and 2022 peaks at 26.18-27.01 is required to confirm this pattern and would suggest longer-term upside beyond the late 2007 high at 29.70 toward the big base pattern count at 43.

Chart 25: Invesco DB Base Metals Fund (DBB): Monthly chart

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Big base breakout potential for natural resources ETF

Global Natural Resources (GNR): Big base breakout potential entering 2026

Moving into 2026, the SPDR S&P Global Natural Resources ETF (GNR) is in position to break higher from a massive 2011 into 2026 cup and handle formation. A decisive breakout above 64.69-65.66 would confirm this big base and signal upside to 70.48 (61.8% extension) initially and then toward 86.12 (100% extension) and 102 (cup and handle pattern count) on a longer-term basis.

Chart 26: SPDR S&P Global Natural Resources ETF (GNR): Monthly chart

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Gold

Gold shows long-term measured move targets at 6000 and 8000

Gold remains within a bullish long-term trend. Log scale measured moves on the monthly chart support the case for longer-term upside to 6000 and 8000 (Oct 21 Charted Market Insights). The top of a long-term rising channel aligns with 6000 in mid 2026 and with 8000 in early 2030. The rising 6-month moving average near 4074 provides a risk management level ahead of the rising 6- and 12-month moving averages at 3631 and 3050, respectively.

Chart notes

·         The 1970-1980 gold rally projected from the 1999 low establishes a measured move target near 6000.

·         The 1999-2011 gold rally projected from the 2015 low establishes another measured move near 8000.

Chart 27: Gold (XAUUSD): Monthly log scale chart

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Silver

Silver tests the lower end of it big base target zone from 85 to 95

Silver confirmed “the mother of all cup and handle patterns” on November’s decisive rally above the 2011 and 1980 peaks 49-50 area (Oct 21 Charted Market Insights). This 46-year cup and handle projects silver into the 85 to 95 zone. Silver starts 2026 with a test of the lower end of this target zone.

Chart 28: Silver (XAGUSD): Monthly chart

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Platinum

Platinum: Big base breakout above 1900 projects longer-term upside to 3040

Platinum’s December surge broke above key resistance at the 2011 highs near 1900 to confirm a big base dating back to the late 2008 lows. This big base breakout projects longer-term upside to 3040 and remains firmly in place above 1900 with additional support near 1760-1739. A sustained rally above the early 2008 peak at 2308 would provide additional bullish confirmation for platinum.

Chart 29: Platinum futures: Monthly chart

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Copper

Copper: A mid 2025-early 2026 basing pattern bodes well entering 2026

Copper futures have improved. A mid 2025-early 2026 basing pattern bodes well for copper entering 2026. A sustained rally beyond 5.90-6.11 would confirm this basing pattern and suggest initial strength to 6.50 and longer-term upside to 7.40. Rising 13-, 26-, and 40-day moving averages at 5.82, 5.63, and 5.45, respectively, underpin this constructive pattern, but holding the last week’s higher low at 5.70 is the key for the tactical bulls on copper.

Chart 30: Copper futures: Daily chart

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

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