Charted Market Insights - Nov. 18, 2026

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Ominous signals increase risk for deeper pullback

SPX: Bearish in-neckline candle pattern provides an overhang entering this week

Last Thursday and Friday formed a bearish in-neckline candle pattern on the S&P 500 (SPX) (Nov 17 Straight from the Chart). This pattern indicates that Friday’s rebound was likely a dead-cat bounce and provides an overhang entering this week. The SPX has also posted two consecutive closes below its 13-, 26-, and 40-day moving averages at 6733-6785, weakening the tactical uptrend and exposing key supports at 6631 to 6550.

SPX: Weekly bearish engulfing pattern lows mark key support at 6631-6550

The recent weekly bearish doji candle and upside exhaustion gap both have provided an overhang for the SPX (Nov 7 Straight from the Chart). The lows from the weekly bearish engulfing patterns for the weeks ending 11/7 and 10/10 offer a key support zone at 6631-6550. The rising 13-week moving average (WMA) at 6656 coincides the upper end of this support. If this support gives way, it opens the door for a deeper pullback with the rising 26-WMA at 6435 and a bigger support near 6157-6100 (rising 40-WMA, 38.2% retracement, and mid 2025 bullish breakout point).

Hindenburg Omen signals are weighing on the U.S. equity market

The Hindenburg Omen serves as a market breadth warning system. When triggered, it tells investors and traders that the surface strength of the market may be masking internal weakness. While not always a bearish signal, its appearance points to elevated correction risk. The Hindenburg Omen for stocks in the NYSE Composite flashed six times in October and three times so far in November. Given yesterday’s 80% down day for NYSE stocks and a lower low for the NYSE stocks advance-decline line, this cluster of signals is weighing on the U.S. equity market.

NYSE A-D line: Lower lows mean weak breadth and a bearish leading indicator

Weaker breadth is a problem. The NYSE stocks advance-decline (A-D) line has not confirmed the higher highs for the NYSE and SPX since late July, which is a bearish breadth divergence and overhang for U.S. equities. Yesterday’s break to a lower low on this A-D line provides a potential bearish leading indicator for a break below support at 21,096 on the NYSE. This would set the stage for a retest of the mid 2025 breakout zone near 20,300-20,200.

3-month VIX vs. VIX likely needs a panic spike below 1.0 for a bullish signal

The 3-month VIX versus the VIX (VIX3M/VIX) is a tactical sentiment gauge that is trending lower, indicating growing investor anxiety. The ratio closed at 1.07 on 11/17, but a panic spike below 1.0—especially if it occurs abruptly—would likely signal a climactic sentiment washout that often aligns with a tactical market low. Stay tuned…

Russell 2000 (IWM) breaks down and shows risk to 222-219

The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) broke key support at 237.55-236.27 to confirm a 2-month top and the two October weekly bearish engulfing patterns (Nov 13 Straight from the Chart). While below this broken support and the 13-week moving average (WMA) at 240.78, the risk is lower. The rising 26-WMA at 229.50 is an initial support, but the breakdown suggests deeper risk to 222-219 (pattern count, 38.2% retracement, and rising 40-WMA).

Lower lows for the Russell 2000 A-D line confirm breakdown

Similar to the NYSE stocks advance-decline (A-D) line, the Russell 2000 A-D line did not confirm the higher highs on IWM since late July, setting up a multi-month bearish divergence. Yesterday’s break to a lower low for this important small cap breadth indicator confirmed the breakdown on IWM..

S&P 500

SPX: Bearish in-neckline candle pattern provides an overhang entering this week

Last Thursday and Friday formed a bearish in-neckline candle pattern on the S&P 500 (SPX) (Nov 17 Straight from the Chart). This pattern indicates that Friday’s rebound was likely a dead-cat bounce and provides an overhang entering this week. The SPX has also posted two consecutive closes below its 13-, 26-, and 40-day moving averages at 6733-6785, weakening the tactical uptrend and exposing key supports at 6631 to 6550.

What is a bearish in-neckline pattern?

·         A bearish in-neckline pattern is a two-candle continuation formation that signals the risk of a dead-cat bounce within a downtrend. It begins with a long dark (down) candle, followed by a gap-down open in the next session. Prices then rebound and fill the gap, creating a white (up) candle that appears constructive but lacks true reversal strength. This second candle closes between the prior day’s low and close, failing to overcome the previous bearish candle. The pattern reflects a weak bounce that typically precedes a resumption of the underlying downtrend.

Chart 1: S&P 500: Daily candlestick chart

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

SPX: Weekly bearish engulfing pattern lows mark key support at 6631-6550

The recent weekly bearish doji candle and upside exhaustion gap both have provided an overhang for the SPX (Nov 7 Straight from the Chart). The lows from the weekly bearish engulfing patterns for the weeks ending 11/7 and 10/10 offer a key support zone at 6631-6550. The rising 13-week moving average (WMA) at 6656 coincides the upper end of this support. If this support gives way, it opens the door for a deeper pullback with the rising 26-WMA at 6435 and a bigger support near 6157-6100 (rising 40-WMA, 38.2% retracement, and mid 2025 bullish breakout point).

Chart notes

·         Rising 26- and 40-WMAs at 6435 and 6157, respectively, represent a bullish trading cycle for the SPX.

·         The rising 40-WMA reinforces the mid 2025 breakout point from 6147 to 6100.

·         The breakout from a late 2024 into mid 2025 bullish consolidation pattern remains intact above 6147-6100 and supports longer-term upside to 7440 (pattern count) and 7490 (100% extension level)

Chart 2: S&P 500: Weekly candlestick chart

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Key indicators

Hindenburg Omen signals are weighing on the U.S. equity market

The Hindenburg Omen serves as a market breadth warning system. When triggered, it tells investors and traders that the surface strength of the market may be masking internal weakness. While not always a bearish signal, its appearance points to elevated correction risk. The Hindenburg Omen for stocks in the NYSE Composite flashed six times in October and three times so far in November. Given yesterday’s 80% down day for NYSE stocks and a lower low for the NYSE stocks advance-decline line, this cluster of signals is weighing on the U.S. equity market.

What is the Hindenburg Omen?

·         In a strong bull market, most stocks tend to rise together. Named after the 1937 airship disaster, the Hindenburg Omen triggers when market breadth becomes out of sync and inconsistent, with too many stocks hitting new highs and too many stocks hitting new lows at the same time. When both new highs and new lows expand simultaneously, it signals a divergence beneath the surface. This sign of the confusion and instability often occurs ahead of market corrections. See our Oct 31 Straight from the Chart blog post for more on the Hindenburg Omen.

Chart 3: NYSE Composite and the Hindenburg Omen for NYSE stocks

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

NYSE A-D line: Lower lows mean weak breadth and a bearish leading indicator

Weaker breadth is a problem. The NYSE stocks advance-decline (A-D) line has not confirmed the higher highs for the NYSE and SPX since late July, which is a bearish breadth divergence and overhang for U.S. equities. Yesterday’s break to a lower low on this A-D line provides a potential bearish leading indicator for a break below support at 21,096 on the NYSE. This would set the stage for a retest of the mid 2025 breakout zone near 20,300-20,200.

Chart 4: NYSE Composite (top) and the NYSE stocks advance-decline line (bottom)

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

3-month VIX vs. VIX likely needs a panic spike below 1.0 for a bullish signal

The 3-month VIX versus the VIX (VIX3M/VIX) is a tactical sentiment gauge that is trending lower, indicating growing investor anxiety. The ratio closed at 1.07 on 11/17, but a panic spike below 1.0—especially if it occurs abruptly—would likely signal a climactic sentiment washout that often aligns with a tactical market low. Stay tuned…

What is the 3-month VIX vs. VIX?

·         VIX3M vs. VIX compares the CBOE 3-month Volatility Index (VIX3M), which tracks expected S&P 500 volatility over the next three months, with the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which measures expected volatility over the next month.

·         Ratio > 1.0: Reflects a normally upward-sloping volatility term structure. This indicates a calm, risk-on environment and typically supports a steady grind higher in equities.

·         Ratio < 1.0: Signals an inverted term structure driven by near-term fear. This risk-off backdrop suggests market stress and often appears near tactical lows—particularly when the ratio plunges sharply below 1.0, marking a capitulation-style panic.

Chart 5: S&P 500 (top) and 3-month VIX versus the VIX (bottom): Daily chart

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

NASDAQ 100

NDX: Bearish in-neckline candle pattern provides an overhang entering this week

Similar to the SPX, the NASDAQ 100 (NDX) formed a bearish in-neckline candle pattern last Thursday and Friday (Nov 17 Straight from the Chart). This pattern indicates that Friday’s rebound was likely a dead-cat bounce and provides an overhang entering this week. The NDX has also posted three consecutive closes below its 13-, 26-, and 40-day moving averages at 25,085-25,405, weakening the tactical uptrend and exposing key supports at 24,600 to 24,200.

Chart 6: NASDAQ 100: Daily candlestick chart

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

NDX: Weekly bearish engulfing pattern lows key support at 24,600-24,200

The recent weekly bearish shooting star, bearish engulfing pattern, and exhaustion gap have provided an overhang for the NDX (Nov 7 Straight from the Chart). The lows from the weekly bearish engulfing patterns for the weeks ending 11/7 and 10/10 offer a key support zone at 24,600-24,200. The rising 13-week moving average (WMA) at 24,630 aligns the upper end of this support. If 24,600-24,200 gives way, it opens the door for a deeper pullback with the rising 26-WMA at 23,640 and a bigger support near 22,500-22,133 (38.2% retracement, rising 40-WMA, and mid 2025 bullish breakout point).

Chart notes

·         Rising 26- and 40-WMAs at 23,640 and 22,309, respectively, represent a bullish trading cycle for the NDX.

·         The rising 40-WMA reinforces the mid 2025 breakout point

·         The breakout from a late 2024 into mid 2025 bullish consolidation pattern remains intact above 22,222-22,133 and supports longer-term upside to 27,600 (pattern count) and 28,324 (100% extension level)

Chart 7: NASDAQ 100: Weekly candlestick chart

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Russell 2000

Russell 2000 (IWM) breaks down and shows risk to 222-219

The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) broke key support at 237.55-236.27 to confirm a 2-month top and the two October weekly bearish engulfing patterns (Nov 13 Straight from the Chart). While below this broken support and the 13-week moving average (WMA) at 240.78, the risk is lower. The rising 26-WMA at 229.50 is an initial support, but the breakdown suggests deeper risk to 222-219 (pattern count, 38.2% retracement, and rising 40-WMA).

Chart 8: iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM): Weekly candlestick chart

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Lower lows for the Russell 2000 A-D and volume A-D lines confirm breakdown

Similar to the NYSE stocks advance-decline (A-D) line, the Russell 2000 A-D line did not confirm the higher highs on IWM since late July, setting up a multi-month bearish divergence. Yesterday’s break to a lower low for this important small cap breadth indicator confirmed the breakdown on IWM. The volume A-D line stayed strong and confirmed the higher highs on IWM into mid October, but lower lows for this breadth of volume indicator since then have also confirmed the breakdown on IWM.

Chart 9: Russell 2000 (IWM) (top) and the Russell 2000 advance-decline line (bottom)

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Chart 10: Russell 2000 (IWM) (top) and the Russell 2000 volume advance-decline line (bottom)

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Small caps are back to their bearish ways relative to large caps

The tactical rally for IWM relative to the S&P 500 (SPY) faded quickly after peaking near at 50% retracement level in mid October. Persistent weakness since then has invalidated the breakout from the April-August double bottom, moving IWM back below its 100- and 200-day moving averages vs. the SPY and placing the focus back on the August and April lows.

Chart 11: Russell 2000 (IWM) relative to the S&P 500 (SPY)

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

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