Cisco Systems (CSCO)

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Monthly chart potential to March 2000 peak at 82

Cisco Systems (CSCO) has a bullish pattern overall with the potential to test its March 2000 peak at 82.00. Holding chart levels in the 66.50-64.28 range, along with the rising 12-month moving average at 62.94, would keep this upward bias intact.

Chart 1: Cisco Systems (CSCO): Monthly chart

Weekly chart tilts bullish but is more complicated

CSCO's weekly chart is more complicated. An early to mid August bearish engulfing pattern is a risk, but it would take a break below 66.50-65.70 to confirm this bearish setup and interrupt CSCO's uptrend. In addition, while intact, rising 26- and 40-week moving averages at 65.26 and 63.82, respectively, suggest a bullish backdrop for CSCO.

The bottom line: If the mid to low 60s (preferably the mid 60s) holds on dips, we can make the case for upside toward 74 (100% Fibonacci extension), 75.75 (the late 2021 into late 2024 triangle pattern target), and potentially 79.75 (target for the late June breakout above 66.50). The March 2000 peak at 82 sits above these targets.

Chart 2: Cisco Systems (CSCO): Weekly chart

Key risk: Recent relative weakness within a long-term lagging trend

The risk to CSCO is relative to the S&P 500. The stock has topped out after testing resistance at its declining 200-week moving average relative to the S&P 500 earlier this year. Similar bearish relative signals happened in August 2019, May 2022, and November 2024, and each of these signals coincided with corrections in CSCO's absolute stock price. Regaining the 13-, 26-, 40-, and 200-week moving averages versus the S&P 500 is required to alleviate this risk.

Chart 3: Cisco Systems (CSCO) relative to the S&P 500: Weekly chart