Crypto update: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple

Across major cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple, the weekly Ichimoku cloud span has emerged as the key battleground support for trend direction.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) corrected from 126,296 down to 80,760 to test the 38.2% retracement of the November 2022 to October 2025 rally at 83,990 prior to a tactical bounce. Notably, the lows of the last two weeks have defended the 38.2% retracement. If this tactical rally continues, Bitcoin could test 98,155 (38.2% of the early October to late November decline), 103,415-103,528 (deteriorating 40-week moving average and 50% retracement), and potentially 108,901-108,915 (61.8% retracement and declining 26-week moving average). If Bitcoin cannot reclaim the upper end of this zone from the 103,400s to 108,900s, the overall price structure would shift bearish (Chart 1).

The weekly Ichimoku cloud span also offers some guidance. Bitcoin's 80,760 low held the lower end of the cloud at 80,600 as support. Reclaiming the upper end of the cloud at 93,213 into Friday's close is likely needed to confirm Bitcoin's tactical rally. A close below that level would imply continued choppy consolidation. (Chart 2).

The recent break below bull market support on the 14-week RSI at 43.55-45.55 remains a risk for Bitcoin. A failure below the overbought threshold of 70 on weekly RSI would suggest that bear market resistance is forming (Chart 1).

Chart 1: Bitcoin (BTC/USD) (top) and the 14-week RSI (bottom)

Chart 2: Bitcoin (BTC/USD) with weekly Ichimoku cloud

Ethereum (ETH/USD) is attempting a bounce from key weekly support defined by the Ichimoku cloud and the 61.8% retracement of the April-August advance. Holding the 2700s to 2600s would preserve the test of the upper edge of the cloud span and support the case for a tactical rebound. If this stabilization holds, ETH/USD would be positioned for a retracement of the late-August to late-November decline, with tactical upside targets at 3,518 (38.2% retracement), 3,792 (50% retracement), and 4,067 (61.8% retracement).

Chart 3: Ethereum (ETH/USD) with weekly Ichimoku cloud

Ripple (XRP/USD) is also testing the lower boundary of its weekly Ichimoku cloud. Holding this cloud support near 1.8919 along with the recent lows at 1.8498–1.8381 would indicate near-term stability. However, a stronger recovery would likely require a breakout above the upper edge of the weekly cloud at 2.3210, which would open the door to retracements of the July–November decline at 2.5356 (38.2%), 2.7515 (50%), and 2.9671 (61.8%).

Chart 4: Ripple (XRP/USD) with weekly Ichimoku cloud