FDX on big base breakout watch in 2026

Fedex (FDX) is a big base breakout candidate for 2026, with the stock trading within a potential early 2021 into 2026 triangle formation. A decisive rally above the 300-314 area (61.8% extension, 2024 peaks, and the May 2021 high) would confirm this big base and suggest further upside to 366 (100% extension) and then toward 472-485 (161.8% extension and triangle pattern count). Until then, rising 13-, 26-, 40-, and 200-week moving averages from 266 down to 239 underpin this bullish setup for FDX.

• The 61.8%, 100%, and 161.8% extension targets highlighted above are calculated by projecting the rally from late 2022 to mid 2024 from the April 2025 low.

Volume leads price. Both the volume advance decline and on balance volume indicators have broken out to new highs, which as a bullish leading indicator for price that increases our confidence that FDX can break out from its big basing pattern in 2026.

Chart 1: Fedex (FDX) (top), volume advance decline (center), and on balance volume (bottom)

FDX also confirmed a big base spanning from late 2007 into 2013, as well as cleared its highs from 2006, on sustained breakouts throughout 2013. Breakouts for the volume advance decline and on balance volume indicators confirmed these breakouts.

Chart 2: Fedex (FDX) (top), volume advance decline (center), and on balance volume (bottom) - 2005 to 2016