Ingersol-Rand (IR) basing for a break higher

Ingersol-Rand (IR) could be forming a year-long base above its rising 200-week moving average (WMA) near 73.00.

Cycles often repeat or at least rhyme with the current early 2025 into early 2026 pattern resembling bullish setups from 2022-2023 and 2000.

The 13-, 26-, and 40-WMAs are improving in the 81.65 to 80.49 area, and the stock has cleared a tactical resistance at 84.60 to place the on the potential basing pattern neckline at 90.44. If IR can decisively break above this resistance, it would confirm the base and set the stage for further upside to 106-108 (late 2024 peak and pattern count) and then toward 115 (full pattern count). Until then, the low 80s offers key support within the developing base-building process.

A deteriorating relative trend for IR vs. the S&P 500 from April-November 2024 provided bearish leading indicator for the November 2024 into April 2025 correction for IR's absolute stock price. However, similar to 2020 and 2022, IR has the potential to form a mid 2025 into early 2026 tactical bottom vs. the S&P 500 that would corroborate the absolute price basis pattern.

Chart 1: Ingersol-Rand (IR) (top) and relative to the S&P 500 (bottom)

In addition, weekly MACD is crossing above the zero line. The last two crosses above the zero line in late 2022 and mid 2020 preceded upside breakouts for IR.

Chart 2: Ingersol-Rand (IR) (top) and weekly MACD (bottom)