Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking ETF

We highlighted a developing bullish setup for the Invesco DB Base Metals Fund (DBB) yesterday in our Straight from the Chart blog.

The broader commodity price tracking ETF shows bottoming signs

The broad-based Invesco DB Commodity Tracking Index ETF (DBC) shows signs of bottom. The 2021 breakout from a double bottom off the 2016 and 2020 lows represented a secularly bullish pattern, supported by the shift to a rising trend in the 200-week moving average (WMA). The pullback from the mid-2022 peak has tested this view, but the 200-WMA remains on an upward trajectory. DBC is also holding near the 50% retracement of the March 2020–June 2022 rally, which is consistent with a corrective phase within an ongoing uptrend.

Key near-term support comes from the bullishly aligned and rising 13-, 26-, and 40-week moving averages at 22.25–21.98, along with the late August higher low at 21.59. Holding these levels would reinforce the potential for a year-long bottoming process.

A decisive move above the 23.32–23.60 resistance zone—which aligns with chart resistance, the bottoming pattern neckline, and the rising 200-WMA—would confirm the 1-year bottom and suggest upside to 25.63 and then higher toward the next pattern resistance at 26.70–27.00. In our view, such a move would also reaffirm DBC’s secular bull market trend from the 2020 low.

Chart 1: Invesco DB Commodity Tracking Index ETF (DBC): Weekly chart

Still a case for a secular bull market for DBC

On a bigger-picture view, DBC remains bullish as long as it holds key support at the 50% retracement of the 2020–2022 rally (20.52) and the April 2025 low (19.84). Maintaining these levels preserves the longer-term secular bull trend for DBC.

The 2021 breakout level and 61.8% retracement offer additional support at 18.65-18.13.

Upside potential could extend to:

• 30.63–32.00: 2022 and 2011 peaks

• 32.34: 61.8% extension of the 2020–2022 rally projected from the April 2025 low

• 40.00: 100% extension

A decisive move above the 2022–2011 peaks would confirm a massive base/bottoming pattern, reinforcing DBC’s secular bull outlook.

Chart 2: Invesco DB Commodity Tracking Index ETF (DBC): Monthly chart

What's the risk to this bullish view?

It's all about holding the key retracement levels and reclaiming the rising 200-WMA. We highlighted these levels above.

DBC failed to do this from mid 2013 into mid 2014, prior to sustaining a big breakdown and trending significantly lower until early 2016.

Chart 3: Invesco DB Commodity Tracking Index ETF (DBC): Weekly chart