Is MRNA bottoming?

We have some interest in Moderna (MRNA), which may be forming a bottoming pattern dating back to early April 2025.

A sharp rally for MRNA from late November tested the July peak at 35.59 in late December prior to a tactical dip. The key for maintaining confidence in MRNA's potential bottoming process is holding the 30.70 to 27.48 zone, which marks the 38.2% and 61.8% retracements of the November 21 to December 22 rally.

• The 38.2% retracement at 30.70 coincides with the rising 13-day moving average (DMA) at 30.98.

• The 50% retracement at 29.09 converges with the mid December breakout point at 29.45-29.20, solidify that level as support within this retracement zone.

• The 61.8% retracement at 27.48 aligns with the improving 26-, 40-, and 200-DMAs near 27.98-27.03.

If MRNA holds the 30.70 to 27.48 zone, the potential would increase for a breakout above 35.59-35.90 (July 23 and December 22 highs), which would confirm the base and suggest upside potential to the early 2025 highs at 45.15 and 48.92 with the pattern count at 48.

MRNA has also improved relative to the S&P 500.

Chart 1: Moderna (MRNA) (top) and relative to the S&P 500 (bottom)

Volume leads price. Breakouts for the on-balance volume (OBV) and volume advance decline (VAD) indicators suggest accumulation (aka buying) as the stock traces out the potential bottoming pattern highlighted above. The volume breakouts provide a bullish leading indicator for an upside breakout in MRNA's stock price. Stay tuned...

Chart 2: Moderna (MRNA) (top), on-balance volume (center), and volume advance decline (bottom)