Kicking the tires on Harley-Davidson (HOG)

We receive a request to review the chart of Harley-Davidson (HOG).

HOG tilts bearish. The weekly downside gap for the week ending December 12th at 23.19-23.29 provides a potential overhang for HOG, which is at risk to break its April 2025 low at 20.45 and potentially test its 2020 COVID-19 low at 14.31. The deteriorating 13-, 26-, and 40-week moving averages from 24.73 to 25.79 also provide an overhang and offer additional resistance along with a broken higher low from early October at 25.82.

HOG remains bearish relative to the S&P 500. A breakdown to lower lows for HOG vs. the S&P 500 in late 2025 confirms a long-term lagging trend and provides a bearish leading indicator for additional weakness in the absolute stock price.

Chart 1: Harley-Davidson (HOG) (top) and relative to the S&P 500 (bottom)

In addition, volume indicators are bearish for HOG. Breakdowns for on-balance-volume (OBV) and volume advance decline (an enhanced version of OBV) also provide a potential bearish leading indicator for HOG, increasing the risk that the stock breaks below its April 2025 low and exposes its 2020 COVID-19 low.

Chart 2: Harley-Davidson (HOG) (top), on-balance-volume (center), and volume advance decline (bottom)