Levels to watch on SPX, NDX, and Crude Oil

This post provides quick technical hits for the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and WTI Crude Oil.

The S&P 500 (SPX) is holding tactical support on its daily Bollinger Bands chart (Nov 28 The Chart Check) defined by the rising 20-day moving average (center line of the Bollinger Bands) and at 6783 and previous resistance at 6775-6765 as the index traces out a potential late October into December bullish cup and handle pattern. If completed on a breakout to new highs, the cup and handle projects the SPX to 7200-7300 (Dec 16 Charted Market Insights).

Chart 1: S&P 500: Daily chart with Bollinger Bands

If the SPX continues to struggle, the 38.2%, 50.0%, and 61.8% retracements of the rally from the cup low to the handle high at 6757 (nearly tested yesterday), 6712, and 6667, respectively, offer potential support along with the daily Ichimoku cloud span from the 6740s to the 6640s. Holding these levels is required to maintain the potential cup and handle pattern highlighted above.

Chart 2: S&P 500: Daily chart with tactical retracement levels and Ichimoku cloud span

The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) is tactically weaker than the SPX and closed below its nearby support on its daily Bollinger Bands chart at the rising 20-day moving average (center line of the Bollinger Bands) and at 25,196 and previous resistance at 25,222-25,195 as the index traces out a potential late October into December bullish cup and handle pattern. This places the burden of proof on the tactical bulls and regaining the 25,195 to 23,378 range (broken support to the 12/15 candle high) is needed to increase confidence in the developing cup and handle. If completed on a breakout to new highs, the cup and handle projects the NDX to 27,000 to 27,600.

Chart 3: NASDAQ 100: Daily chart with Bollinger Bands

In addition, the 38.2%, 50.0%, and 61.8% retracements of the rally from the cup low to the handle high at 25,078, 24,844, and 24,610, respectively, offer potential support along with the daily Ichimoku cloud span from the 25,280s to the 24,580s. The NDX is testing both the cloud span and the upper part of the retracement zone. Holding these levels is required to maintain the potential cup and handle pattern highlighted above.

Chart 4: NASDAQ 100: Daily chart with tactical retracement levels and Ichimoku cloud span

WTI Crude Oil futures have tested the April and May lows at 55.30-55.12 as support. We are watching the daily candlestick chart, and it would take a close today above yesterday's open at 56.68 to put in a bullish engulfing pattern, increasing the potential for a tactical rebound to declining 13-, 26-, and 40-day moving averages from 58.12 to 59.27. However, a failure to confirm this pattern would keep WTI Crude Oil on the defensive with key supports exposed (Dec 15 Straight from the Chart).

Chart 5: WTI Crude Oil futures: Daily chart