Question on two India ETFs

We got a blog question on two India ETFs.

• Franklin FTSE India ETF (FLIN)

• iShares MSCI India Small-Cap ETF (SMIN)

In summary, the pattern tilts slightly more positive for FLIN.

Franklin FTSE India ETF (FLIN)

FLIN has a solid uptrend from its 2020 low, with a rising 200-week moving average, but is correcting/consolidating within this bullish trend from its September 2024 peak.

Sustaining this long-term uptrend and using Fibonacci extensions as a guide suggest upside to 43.54 (61.8% extension of the 2023-2024 rally projected from the 2025 low), 47.27 (100% extension of the 2020-2021 rally projected from the 2023 low), and potentially as high as 49.53 (100% extension of the 2023-2024 rally projected from the 2025 low).

The September 2024 peak at 42.49 offers some resistance ahead of these extension levels.

In the meantime, holding tactical support near 31.17-36.62 would suggest a firming near-term trend with the potential for base-building below resistance at 40. In our view, a decisive move above 40 is the key for increasing confidence that FLIN trends toward its Fibonacci extension levels.

The 13-, 26-, and 40-week moving averages (WMAs) converge near 38.44-37.58. Weekly closes vs. these WMAs could prove to be important in determining the next directional move for FLIN. Above = bullish. Below = bearish.

Chart 1: Franklin FTSE India ETF (FLIN)

iShares MSCI India Small-Cap ETF (SMIN)

SMIN also has a solid uptrend from its 2020 low, with a rising 200-week moving average, but is correcting/consolidating within this bullish trend from its September 2024 peak after breaking down from a July into December head and shoulders (H&S) top.

Sustaining this long-term uptrend and using Fibonacci extensions as a guide suggest upside to 85.92 (61.8% extension of the 2022-2024 rally projected from the 2025 low), 90.92 (100% extension of the 2020-2021 rally projected from the 2023 low), and potentially as high as 100.99 (100% extension of the 2023-2024 rally projected from the 2025 low).

The September 2024 peak at 87.06 aligns with the first extension level highlighted above.

The H&S top neckline offers a key resistance in the 78.50s, solidified by a bearish breakdown and retest pattern. Tactical support comes in at 71.60. Bottom line: Resistance looks stronger than support on SMIN - holding below resistance would increase the risk to break support.

The 13-, 26-, and 40-week moving averages (WMAs) converge near 74.37-71.98. Weekly closes vs. these WMAs could prove to be important in determining the next directional move for SMIN. Above = bullish. Below = bearish.

Chart 2: iShares MSCI India Small-Cap ETF (SMIN)