S&P 500 churning but breadth firming

The January Barometer is bullish for 2026, but the S&P 500 continues to churn near all-time highs rather than sustain a decisive upward breakout (The Chart Check - January 30, 2026) and February tends to be a seasonality weaker month (Straight from the Chart - February 3, 2026).

That said, while the S&P 500 is churning, market breadth is firming with the S&P 500 advance-decline line and volume advance-decline line probing to new highs and the spread between 52-week highs and 52-week lows near its best levels for the rally from the April 2025 low.

Given the lack of upside following-through the key risk management levels are:

• Rising 13-, 26-, and 40-day moving averages from 6925 down to 6897. The S&P 500 closed at 6917.81 yesterday, which is within this zone.

• Late January and early January lows at 6789 and 6721, which align with the daily Ichimoku cloud span in the 6780s to 6730s.

• Big support for 2026 at the November and October 2025 lows at 6550-6521 and rising 200-day moving average at 6445.

Tactical resistances are:

• The mid to late January peaks at 6985-7002.

• The upper end of the rising channel from mid December from 7040 to 7100 from today into late February.

The weekly chart reduces the daily noise and shows an uptrend with rising 13-, 26-, and 40-week moving averages:

• Since reclaiming the 13-week moving average as of May 2, 2025, the S&P 500 has closed below it just once in late November. This weekly moving average current sits near 6860.

• The rising 26- and 40-week moving averages confirmed the mid 2025 breakout and continue to support the long-term uptrend for the S&P 500.

  • The S&P 500 reclaimed these two moving averages in late May 2025 and has held above them since then. Choppy mid-term year seasonality favors a test of these weekly moving averages sometime this year.

  • The 26-week moving average at 6739 reinforces the 6789 to 6720 support zone as well as the daily Ichimoku cloud span in the 6780s-6730s.

  • The 40-week moving average at 6513 underpins the big 2026 support at 6550-6521.

• Longer-term upside counts for the mid 2025 breakout above the 6100-6147 range are 7450-7490 (SPX 7400s). The bullish January Barometer signal corroborates this upside target.

Chart 1: S&P 500 (top) and volume advance-decline line (bottom): Daily chart

Chart 2: S&P 500 (top) and advance-decline line (bottom): Daily chart

Chart 3: S&P 500 (top) and the spread between 52-week highs and 52-week lows (bottom): Daily chart

Chart 4: S&P 500: Weekly chart