S&P 500: February has weaker seasonality

February has historically been a seasonal headwind for equities, ranking as the second-weakest month for the S&P 500 behind September. Since 1928, the index has risen only 52% of the time in February, posting an average return of -0.10% (with a median gain of 0.23%) over the past 98 years.

Chart 1: S&P 500 average monthly returns and percentage of time up: 1928-present

February tends to be no better during Presidential Cycle Year 2 (the mid-term year). Across the 24 mid-term years from 1930 through 2022, the S&P 500 has been higher in February just 50% of the time, with a near-flat average return of 0.01% and a negative median return of -0.16%, reinforcing February’s reputation as a seasonal soft spot even within the presidential cycle framework.

Chart 2: S&P 500 average monthly returns and percentage of time up for mid-term election years: 1930-present