Signs of a big double bottom for Alcoa (AA)

This blog recently highlighted bullish setups for Aluminum futures, Century Aluminum (CENX), and Kaiser Aluminum (KALU). Following a subscriber request, we took a closer look at Alcoa Corp. (AA), another name in the aluminum group that shows improving technicals.

Alcoa Corp. (AA) is carving out a potential double bottom from its October 2023 and April 2025 lows. The recent breakout from a late-October to late-November bullish wedge has carried the stock above its declining 200-week moving average near 39.82 and above initial resistance at 40.62–41.55. The near-term trend remains positive while holding above this 41.55–39.82 support zone (prior resistance), with the focus on the double-bottom breakout area (still resistance for now) at 45.48–47.77. A decisive move through this band would confirm the double bottom and open the door to a longer-term upside target near 72.50.

If AA can break higher from its double bottom, important Fibonacci retracement levels for the early 2022 into early 2025 decline offer potential resistances along the way at 50.77 (38.2% retracement), 59.81 (50% retracement), and 68.84 (61.8% retracement).

However, failure to push through 45.48–47.77 followed by a breakdown below 41.55–39.82 would weaken the setup and expose the next supports at 35.45–35.12, with the rising 26- and 40-week moving averages at 33.49 and 31.60, respectively.

Chart 1: Alcoa Corp. (AA): Weekly chart