SMH remains bullish - absolute and vs. SPX

The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) broke higher from the bullish cup and handle pattern highlighted in our December 29, 2025, The Sector Edge. This bullish breakout remains firmly intact above 375-372, and SMH still has upside potential to the patten counts at 398 and 430.

SMH remains within strong absolute and relative price trends with new absolute price highs confirmed by relative price highs as well as by maximum positive absolute and relative trend scores trend scores.

Chart 1: VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) and SMH vs. SPX (top), Trend Scores (center), and Long-term Trend Scores (bottom)