SPX December scenarios point to 7000+

November 2025 delivered a muted 0.13% return for the S&P 500, but—as highlighted in our November 28 The Chart Check—a soft November historically sets the stage for an even stronger-than-usual December. This Straight from the Chart post expands on the 2025 December seasonality playbook across several historical scenarios. In summary, multiple seasonality frameworks point to a constructive December for equities and a rising probability of the S&P 500 approaching 7000+ into year-end 2025.

What happens after an above average YTD return through November?

The S&P 500 is up 16.5% year-to-date through November versus an average YTD gain of 6.5%. December has historically performed better when YTD returns are above average, with the month posting gains 80% of the time and averaging 2.1% (median 1.8%). A similar outcome in 2025 would place the S&P 500 in the 6970s–6990s (near 7000) into year-end.

Table 1: S&P 500 December returns after YTD through November performance

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

What happens after a more robust gain between 10% and 20% YTD through November?

When the S&P 500 is up 10% to 20% YTD through November—the range that captures 2025—December is positive 83% of the time, with average and median gains of 2.5% and 1.7%, respectively. This projects the index into the 6960s to low 7000s by year-end.

Table 2: S&P 500 December returns after YTD through November performance

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

What about after a strong YTD through November, but a below average month of November?

A more specific scenario—strong YTD gains through November combined with a lackluster November—has occurred 17 times since 1928. December has rallied 94% of the time with both average and median returns of 3.5%, implying upside toward ~7100 into year-end.

Table 3: S&P 500 December returns after YTD November and month of November performance

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

What about December in Presidential Cycle Year 1

Finally, 2025 is Year 1 of the Presidential Cycle. In Year 1, the average YTD return through November is 6.2%, far below 2025’s 16.5%. Even so, December has been positive 100% of the time (11 of 11 observations), with average and median gains of 1.9% and 1.6%, respectively. This scenario supports an S&P 500 move into the 6950s–6970s by January.

Table 4: S&P 500 December returns after YTD November and month of November performance

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Overall, multiple seasonality frameworks point to a constructive December for equities and a rising probability of the S&P 500 approaching 7000+ into year-end 2025.