The Chart Check - Dec 12, 2025

Stephen Suttmeier
Dec 12
7 min read

*** Please see the bottom of this report for important disclaimers and disclosures.***

Cups and handles, bullish breadth, GLD, GDX, GDXJ, and SIL

SPX: Tactical cup and handle pattern supports upside to 7200-7300

As highlighted in our Straight from the Chart blog, the S&P 500 (SPX) is forming a tactical cup and handle. A decisive breakout above chart resistance and the late October high at 6870-6920 would confirm this bullish pattern and favor upside to 7200-7300 into yearend/early 2026. Until then, continuing to hold 6832-6770 (13-, 26-, and 40-day moving averages and chart levels) would bode well for the developing handle. Similar to the SPX, the NASDAQ 100 is also forming a tactical cup and handle pattern – see yesterday’s Straight from the Chart for more.

Bullish market breadth a leading-to-confirming indicator for new index highs

Market breadth indicators continue to flash bullish signals. The percent of SPX stocks above 100-day moving averages confirmed a bullish signal on a breakout above 50-51.6%. Advance-decline (A-D) lines and volume A-D lines have achieved new highs on the SPX and NDX, which are a leading indicator for new highs on these indices (12/11 Straight from the Chart blog). Breadth for NYSE stocks is bullish with new highs for the volume A-D line and a breakout above a 3-month downtrend line on the stocks A-D line. Even more important is the expansion of new 52-week highs versus new 52-week lows on the SPX and NYSE, which hit cycle highs for the rally from the April low.

With broadening breadth comes broad index breakouts for NYSE and RSP

Strengthening breadth shows a rotation toward the broad-based NYSE Comp and the equal weight S&P 500 (RSP). Both indices have achieved new highs ahead of the SPX and NDX, completing tactical bullish consolidation patterns that reinforce the mid 2025 breakouts and uptrends from the April low. Holding 21,820-21,550 (breakout level and rising 13-week moving average) would keep the tactical breakout intact and immediate pattern bullish on the NYSE with tactical upside to 22,560-22,770 and longer-term potential to the mid 2025 breakout count at 23,600. See inside this report for an update on the RSP.

Gold (GLD): Tactical base breakout signals upside to 403 and 416

The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) is breaking out from a late October-early December bullish continuation basing pattern. Sustaining the rally above 388 would target the late October peak at 403.30 and the pattern count at 416. The 392 to 382 consolidation zone offers tactical support along with rising 13-, 26-, and 40-day moving averages from 386.52 down to 379.03.

GDX: Breaking higher from a bullish cup and handle that targets 99.75

The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is breaking out from a mid October into early December bullish cup and handle. Sustaining the rally above 85-84 (pattern neckline and mid October peak) would confirm this bullish setup and target the pattern count at 99.75. Rising 13-, 26-, and 40-day moving averages from 81.47 to 78.15-76.61 reinforce the bullish trend for GDX, with additional chart support near 80-79. Our latest Charted Market Insights report highlighted a 15-year big base and longer-term upside potential to 116-121 on GDX. The VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) and the Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL) are also breaking out from bullish cup and handle pattern.

S&P 500

SPX: Tactical cup and handle pattern supports upside to 7200-7300

As highlighted in our Straight from the Chart blog, the S&P 500 (SPX) is forming a tactical cup and handle. A decisive breakout above chart resistance and the late October high at 6870-6920 would confirm this bullish pattern and favor upside to 7200-7300 into yearend/early 2026. Until then, continuing to hold 6832-6770 (13-, 26-, and 40-day moving averages and chart levels) would bode well for the developing handle. If needed, the 6630 level (early November low) offers additional support ahead of the late November low near 6520. Similar to the SPX, the NASDAQ 100 is also forming a tactical cup and handle pattern – see yesterday’s Straight from the Chart for more.

Chart 1: S&P 500 (top) and the percent of S&P 500 stocks above 100-day moving averages (bottom)

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Market breadth continues to strengthen

Bullish market breadth a leading-to-confirming indicator for new index highs

Market breadth indicators continue to flash bullish signals. The percent of SPX stocks above 100-day moving averages confirmed a bullish signal on a breakout above 50-51.6% (Chart 1). Advance-decline (A-D) lines and volume A-D lines have achieved new highs on the SPX and NDX, which are a leading indicator for new highs on these indices (12/11 Straight from the Chart blog). Breadth for NYSE stocks is bullish with new highs for the volume A-D line and a breakout above a 3-month downtrend line on the stocks A-D line. Even more important is the expansion of new 52-week highs versus new 52-week lows on the SPX and NYSE, which hit cycle highs for the rally from the April low.

Chart 2: S&P 500 (top) and S&P 500 advance-decline line (bottom)

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Chart 3: S&P 500 (top) and S&P 500 volume advance-decline line (bottom)

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Chart 4: NASDAQ 100 (top) and NASDAQ 100 advance-decline line (bottom)

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Chart 5: NASDAQ 100 (top) and NASDAQ 100 volume advance-decline line (bottom)

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Chart 6: NYSE Composite (top) and NYSE stocks volume advance-decline line (bottom)

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Chart 7: NYSE Comp (top) and NYSE stocks advance-decline line (bottom)

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

NYSE: Bullish sign - new cycle high for new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows

The spread between new 52-week highs and new 52-week lows on the NYSE has improved on an expansion in net new 52-week highs. Yesterday’s (12/11) surge in net new 52-week highs to 182 surpassed the prior peak from early September at 141. This new cycle high is bullish and confirms the rally from the April 2025 low.

Chart 8: NYSE Composite (top) and new 52-week highs versus new 52-week lows (bottom)

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

SPX: Bullish sign - new cycle high for new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows

The spread between new 52-week highs and new 52-week lows on the SPX has improved on an expansion in net new 52-week highs. Yesterday’s (12/11) surge in net new 52-week highs to 50 surpassed the prior peak from late July at 48. This new cycle high is bullish and confirms the rally from the April 2025 low.

Chart 9: S&P 500 (top) and new 52-week highs versus new 52-week lows (bottom)

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

NYSE Composite and S&P 500 equal-weight break out

With broadening breadth comes broad index breakouts for NYSE and RSP

NYSE: Tactical breakout targets 22,560-22,770

The NYSE Composite has pushed to new highs confirmed by positive signals from market breadth. Holding 21,820-21,550 (breakout level and rising 13-week moving average) would keep the tactical breakout intact and immediate pattern bullish on the NYSE with tactical upside to 22,560-22,770 and longer-term potential to the mid 2025 breakout count at 23,600.

Chart notes

The NYSE has a classic breakout and retest pattern from its late 2024 into mid 2025 bullish continuation pattern that projects upside to 23,600.

Chart 10: NYSE Composite: Weekly chart

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

S&P 500 Equal Weight (RSP): Tactical breakout targets 200-202

The average SPX stock is strengthening relative to the largest names in the index. The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) is leading the market cap weighted SPX and is already breaking to new highs. Holding 192.30-189.25 (breakout level and rising 13-week moving average) would keep the tactical breakout intact and immediate pattern bullish on the RSP with near-term upside to 200-202 and longer-term potential to 213 (100% extension of the October 2022-November 2024 rally projected from the April 2025 low).

Chart 11: Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP): Weekly chart

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

ETFs on the move: GLD, GDX, GDXJ, and SIL

Gold (GLD): Tactical base breakout signals upside to 403 and 416

Chart 12: SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD)

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

GDX: Breaking higher from a bullish cup and handle that targets 99.75

Chart 13: VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

GDXJ: Breaking higher from a bullish cup and handle that targets 133.50

The VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) is also breaking out from a mid October into early December bullish cup and handle. Sustaining the rally above 112.45-110.40 (pattern neckline and mid October peak) would confirm this bullish setup and target the pattern count at 133.50. Rising 13-, 26-, and 40-day moving averages from 106.90 to 101.32-99.54 underpin this bullish backdrop, with additional chart support near 104.39-102.50.

Chart 14: VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ)

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

SIL: Breaking higher from a bullish cup and handle that targets 96.75

Similar to GDX and GDXJ, the Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL) is also breaking out from a mid October into early December bullish cup and handle. Sustaining the rally above 80.72-79.38 (pattern neckline and mid October peak) would confirm this bullish setup and target the pattern count at 96.75. Rising 13-, 26-, and 40-day moving averages from 76.11 to 71.36-70.37 underpin this bullish backdrop along with chart supports at 74.43 and 71.60.

Chart 15: Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL)

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

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