The Chart Check - Dec 4, 2025

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The Chart Check - 04 Dec 2025 - NDX, NYSE, breadth signals, and bullish ETF breakout retes. Download • 1.80MB

NDX, NYSE, breadth signals, and bullish ETF breakout/retests

NDX: Reasserts weekly uptrend; bullish above 25,200-25,150 to 24,890

The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) undercut its key support at the “Trump Tariff Tweet” low near 24,200, but the level bent and did not break. Last week’s close back above the NDX’s rising 13-week moving average (WMA) at 24,890 reasserts the weekly uptrend, establishing the October and November lows at 24,200-23,850 as key support along with the rising 26-WMA at 23,925. Holding nearby support from 25,200-25,150 (former resistance) to 24,890 (13-WMA) would suggest that the NDX can overcome its early November weekly exhaustion gap and bearish engulfing pattern to retest and exceed the 26,182 peak into yearend. The upside count for the mid 2025 breakout is 27,600.

NYSE: Bullish consolidation breakout watch

The NYSE Composite has improved after defending its rising 13- and 26-week moving averages (WMAs) as support and is in position to break higher from an early October into early December bullish continuation pattern. Improving breadth supports the case for this breakout (12/2 Charted Market Insights), and we remain on alert for a Zweig Breadth Thrust signal by 12/5 (11/26 Straight from the Chart blog). A decisive push above 21,820-21,877 would confirm the bullish consolidation and suggest upside to pattern counts at 22,560 and 22,770. Rising 13- and 26-WMAs from 21,494 to 21,054 reinforce this bullish trend along with chart support at 21,096-20,906.

Bullish sign for breadth as new 52-week highs improve vs. new 52-week lows

The spread between new 52-week highs and new 52-week lows on the NYSE has improved on an expansion in net new 52-week highs. This has taken the 10-day moving average of net new 52-week highs back above zero, which is a bullish signal for market breadth. In our view, surpassing the prior peak for net new highs from early September at 141 is required to suggest that breadth is strong enough to continue the uptrend from the April 2025 low.

Percent of SPX stocks above 100-DMAs improves and is poised for a bullish signal

The S&P 500 (SPX) defended is rising 100-day moving average (DMA) as support in late November with just 37% of SPX stocks above their 100-DMAs. Since then, breadth has improved with the percent of SPX stocks above 100-DMAs rising to 50.3%. This intermediate-term breadth indicator is set up for a bullish signal. A decisive push above 50.0%-51.6%, which is the where the downtrend line from late August and the November highs (11/12 and 11/28) converge, would confirm a bullish turn for the percent of SPX stocks above their 100-DMAs.

ETFs with bullish breakouts and retests: ARKF, PKW, and CSD

Bullish breakout and retest patterns from big bases remain an important theme. We have highlighted these bullish setups for the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX), KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB), Invesco China Technology ETF (CQQQ), SPDR S&P China ETF (GXC), Global X Data Center and Digital Infrastructure ETF (DLTR), and the ARK Autonomous Technology and Robotics ETF (ARKQ). In this report, we flag similar patterns for the ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF), Invesco BuyBack Achievers ETF (PKW), and Invesco S&P Spin-Off ETF (CSD).

NASDAQ 100

NDX: Reasserts weekly uptrend; bullish above 25,200-25,150 to 24,890

The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) undercut its key support at the “Trump Tariff Tweet” low near 24,200, but the level bent and did not break. Last week’s close back above the NDX’s rising 13-week moving average (WMA) at 24,890 reasserts the weekly uptrend, establishing the October and November lows at 24,200-23,850 as key support along with the rising 26-WMA at 23,925. Holding nearby support from 25,200-25,150 (former resistance) to 24,890 (13-WMA) would suggest that the NDX can overcome its early November weekly exhaustion gap and bearish engulfing pattern to retest and exceed the 26,182 peak into yearend. The upside count for the mid 2025 breakout is 27,600.

Chart 1: NASDAQ 100: Weekly candlestick chart

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

NYSE Composite

NYSE: Bullish consolidation breakout watch

The NYSE Composite has improved after defending its rising 13- and 26-week moving averages (WMAs) as support and is in position to break higher from an early October into early December bullish continuation pattern. Improving breadth supports the case for this breakout (12/2 Charted Market Insights), and we remain on alert for a Zweig Breadth Thrust signal by 12/5 (11/26 Straight from the Chart blog). A decisive push above 21,820-21,877 would confirm the bullish consolidation and suggest upside to pattern counts at 22,560 and 22,770. Rising 13- and 26-WMAs from 21,494 to 21,054 reinforce this bullish trend along with chart support at 21,096-20,906.

Chart notes

·         The NYSE has a classic breakout and retest pattern from its late 2024 into mid 2025 bullish continuation pattern that projects upside to 23,600.

Chart 2: NYSE Composite: Weekly chart

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Key indicators

Bullish sign for breadth as new 52-week highs improve vs. new 52-week lows

The spread between new 52-week highs and new 52-week lows on the NYSE has improved on an expansion in net new 52-week highs. This has taken the 10-day moving average of net new 52-week highs back above zero, which is a bullish signal for market breadth. In our view, surpassing the prior peak for net new highs from early September at 141 is required to suggest that breadth is strong enough to continue the uptrend from the April 2025 low.

Chart 3: NYSE Composite (top) and new 52-week highs versus new 52-week lows (bottom)

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Percent of SPX stocks above 100-DMAs improves and is poised for a bullish signal

The S&P 500 (SPX) defended is rising 100-day moving average (DMA) as support in late November with just 37% of SPX stocks above their 100-DMAs. Since then, breadth has improved with the percent of SPX stocks above 100-DMAs rising to 50.3%. This intermediate-term breadth indicator is set up for a bullish signal. A decisive push above 50.0%-51.6%, which is the where the downtrend line from late August and the November highs (11/12 and 11/28) converge, would confirm a bullish turn for the percent of SPX stocks above their 100-DMAs.

Chart 4: S&P 500 (top) and the percent of stocks above 100-day moving averages (bottom)

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

ETFs with bullish breakouts and retests

Bullish breakout and retest patterns from big bases remain an important theme. We have highlighted these bullish setups for the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX), KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB), Invesco China Technology ETF (CQQQ), SPDR S&P China ETF (GXC), Global X Data Center and Digital Infrastructure ETF (DLTR), and the ARK Autonomous Technology and Robotics ETF (ARKQ). In this report, we flag similar patterns for the ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF), Invesco BuyBack Achievers ETF (PKW), and Invesco S&P Spin-Off ETF (CSD).

ARK Fintech Innovation (ARKF): Bullish breakout and retest intact above 47-44.50

The ARK Fintech Innovation (ARKF) has retested the breakout from its early 2022-mid 2025 bullish cup and handle. This big base remains intact above the 47 to 44.50 area (rising 40-week moving average (WMA) and breakout point) with upside potential back to the early October peak at 59.20 and beyond toward 64.49 (early 2021 peak) and 76 (cup and handle pattern count). Bullish conviction would increase on weekly closes above the rising 26-WMA at 52.59 as well as on a push back above the WMAs relative to the SPX.

Chart 5: ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF) and relative to the S&P 500 (bottom)

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

BuyBack Achievers (PKW): Bullish breakout holds to target 145-147.52 to 154

The Invesco BuyBack Achievers ETF (PKW) has bullish breakout and retest pattern while above the 125.22 to 120.45 range with upside potential beyond the late October high at 134.95 toward 145.00-147.52 (pattern count and 100% extension) and then 154 (pattern count). Rising 13-, 26-, and 40-week moving averages at 131.14, 128.59, and 122.90, reinforce this bullish backdrop for PKW. While PKW has a lackluster trend vs. the SPX, the ETF is showing leadership since late October.

Chart 6: Invesco BuyBack Achievers ETF (PKW)

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

S&P Spin-Off (CSD): Bullish low 90s breakout holds to target 109 and 120

The Invesco S&P Spin-Off ETF (CSD) has bullish breakout and retest pattern while above the 93.60 to 90.00 area with upside potential beyond the late October spike high at 102.89 toward 109.00 (100% extension) and 120 (pattern count). Rising 13- and 26-week moving averages at 94.86-90.22 reinforce the bullish breakout and retest zone. CSD has shown solid leadership relative to the SPX since the April 2025 low.

Chart 7: Invesco S&P Spin-Off ETF (CSD)

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

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