The Chart Check - Feb. 6, 2026

Stephen Suttmeier
10 hours ago
6 min read

*** Please see the bottom of this report for important disclaimers and disclosures.***

Breadth bullish but SPX churns on lagging mega caps

Market breadth is strong even as the SPX churns below its record high at 7002

The S&P 500 (SPX) is churning, hitting marginal new record highs into early 2026 and reaching 7002 in late January. Although the SPX has made little upward progress since late October, breadth indicators remain bullish. The 52-week high versus 52-week low spread (Chart 1), the volume advance-decline (A-D) line (Chart 2), and the breadth A-D line (Chart 3) reached new highs on Friday (2/6) to confirm the rally from the April 2025 low. This is bullish and supports the broader uptrend despite near-term index consolidation.

SPX: Breadth bullish but lack of price follow-through means watch your supports

Despite strong underlying participation, the SPX has failed to show meaningful upside follow-through, elevating the importance of risk management. Key support levels to monitor include 6789–6790 (late January/early February lows), 6721 (mid-December low), and the more critical 6550–6521 zone, defined by the October and November 2025 lows and viewed as major 2026 support. The rising 200-day moving average at 6469 further reinforces this longer-term support. On the upside, January highs near 6986–7002 offer initial resistance.

S&P 500 equal weight tactically strong vs. the S&P 500

The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) remains tactically strong relative to the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) after a bullish breakout and retest from a September into January head and shoulders bottom for RSP vs. SPY (Jan 9 The Chart Check). This relative strength shows that the average SPX stock is outperforming the largest names, supporting healthy market breadth. However, the absence of mega-cap leadership since late October has capped upside progress for the SPX and delayed a decisive breakout to new record highs.

Magnificent Seven becomes a drag on the SPX as relative weakness persists

Has the “Magnificent Seven” turned into the “Lag Seven” or even the “Drag Seven”? The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) has lagged both the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) since late October, breaking down from September–January head-and-shoulders tops on a relative basis (Jan. 9 The Chart Check). This relative weakness—along with outright price declines in some mega-cap leaders—has weighed on the SPX into early 2026, offsetting otherwise strong market breadth readings.

Dow Industrials hit 50,000, but price patterns target 50,800, then 53,000-53,400

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) broke out to record highs and hit the 50,000 milestone. This confirmed the bullish pennant highlighted in our Feb 3 Charted Market Insights. Sustaining the move above the 49,600s-49,500s keeps this breakout in place and immediate pattern bullish for 50,800 and projects further upside to 53,400, refocusing longer-term potential to 53,000-53,400 (100% extension and pattern count). Rising 13-, 26-, and 40-day moving averages at 49,240-48,870 reinforce the bullish case ahead of key nearby chart support at 48,400.

Dow Theory: New highs from Industrials confirm the new highs on Transports

The traditional Dow Theory shows a confirmed buy signal. New highs for both the Dow Industrials and Dow Transports as of February 6, 2026 put the Dow Theory back on a confirmed bullish signal from mid May 2025.

Market breadth bullish

Market breadth is strong even as the SPX churns below its record high at 7002

Chart 1: S&P 500 (top) and the spread between 52-week highs and 52-week lows (bottom): Daily chart