The Chart Check - Jan 16, 2026

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The Chart Check - 16 Jan 2026 - Breadth bullish, Platinum, Ethereum, and high yield OAS.pd Download PD • 1.79MB

Breadth bullish, Platinum, Ethereum, and high yield OAS

Breadth remains solid: NYSE stocks advance-decline line scores a new high

The broad-based NYSE Composite continues to reach all-time highs. Market breadth suggests broad participation in the rally and is confirming these highs. The NYSE stocks advance-decline (A-D) line pushed to a new high yesterday, joining both the NYSE issues and volume A-D lines at new highs (Jan 13 Straight from the Chart), negating a bearish divergence from mid 2025, and confirming the rally into early 2026. In addition, more NYSE stocks are reaching new 52-week highs relative to new 52-week lows. The 10-day moving average of the spread between new highs and new lows hit a cycle high for the rally from the April 2025 low, also confirming the rally into early 2026.

Platinum: Bullish consolidation pattern suggests potential to 2765 and 3000

Platinum futures are building a bullish consolidation pattern from late December into January. A decisive push above 2450–2460 is needed to confirm this constructive setup. This would signal upside back toward the late December peak and the 61.8% extension at 2563.50–2596.26 initially, and then higher toward 2765 (tactical pattern count) and ultimately the 3000–3025 zone (100% extension and the full pattern count). Until a breakout occurs, holding the rising 13-day moving average and first chart support from 2297 to 2235 would keep the near-term pattern bullish. 3000-3025 coincides with the target for a bigger base breakout (Dec 26 Charted Market Insights).

Ethereum: Bullish breakout watch from a November into January basing pattern

Similar to Bitcoin (Jan 14 Straight from the Chart), Ethereum (ETH/USD) is showing the potential to break out from a November into January tactical bottoming pattern. Rising 13-, 26-, and 40-day moving averages (DMAs) at 3200–3079 reinforce the recent bullish turn in ETH/USD. While price remains above these DMAs, the probability increases for a decisive push above 3436 to confirm the base and favor further upside to 3518 (38.2% retracement of the August–November decline), 3650 (200-DMA), and 3792 (50% retracement). Beyond that, a sustained breakout would target the 4067–4200 area, corresponding to the 61.8% retracement and the tactical base pattern count.

ETHA: Bullish breakout watch from a November into January basing pattern

Similar to iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) (Jan 14 Straight from the Chart), the iShares Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHA) has the potential to break out from a November into January tactical bottoming pattern. Rising 13-, 26-, and 40-day moving averages (DMAs) at 23.68-23.01 reinforce the recent bullish turn in ETHA. While price remains above these DMAs, the potential increases for a decisive push above 26.09 to confirm the bottom and favor further upside to 26.55 (38.2% retracement of the August–November decline) initially, and then higher to 28.51 (50% retracement), 30.46 (61.8% retracement), and 32.00 (pattern count).

U.S. High Yield OAS still benign, but new lows needed to confirm equity rally

The U.S. High Yield option-adjusted spread (OAS) was at risk of breaking higher from a mid- to late-2025 bottom that would have signaled rising credit stress and a risk-off backdrop for equities. Fortunately, that scenario has been avoided, as the high yield OAS has remained benign and constructive, narrowing back toward its late-September low at 2.69. A decisive break below this 2.69 level is now needed to confirm the S&P 500’s push to new highs into early 2026 and to avoid a late-September to early 2026 negative divergence between credit and equities.

NYSE breadth remains solid

Breadth remains solid: NYSE stocks advance-decline line scores a new high

The broad-based NYSE Composite continues to reach all-time highs. Market breadth suggests broad participation in the rally and is confirming these highs. The NYSE stocks advance-decline (A-D) line pushed to a new high yesterday, joining both the NYSE issues and volume A-D lines at new highs (Jan 13 Straight from the Chart), negating a bearish divergence from mid 2025, and confirming the rally into early 2026. In addition, more NYSE stocks are reaching new 52-week highs relative to new 52-week lows. The 10-day moving average of the spread between new highs and new lows hit a cycle high for the rally from the April 2025 low, also confirming the rally into early 2026.

Chart 1: NYSE Composite (top) and NYSE stocks advance-decline line (bottom): Daily chart

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

NYSE issues advance-decline line remains strong on continued new highs

The bullish breakout for the NYSE issues advance-decline line provided a leading indicator for yesterday’s breakout on the NYSE stocks advance-decline line.

Chart 2: NYSE issues advance-decline line: Daily chart

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

NYSE stocks: 10-DMA of 52-week highs vs. 52-week lows reaches new cycle high

More NYSE stocks are reaching new 52-week highs relative to new 52-week lows. The 10-day moving average of the spread between new highs and new lows hit a cycle high for the rally from the April 2025 low, also confirming the rally into early 2026.

Chart 3: NYSE Composite (top) and 52-week highs versus new 52-week lows (bottom): Daily chart

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Platinum tilts bullish

Platinum: Bullish consolidation pattern suggests potential to 2765 and 3000

Platinum futures are building a bullish consolidation pattern from late December into January. A decisive push above 2450–2460 is needed to confirm this constructive setup. This would signal upside back toward the late December peak and the 61.8% extension at 2563.50–2596.26 initially, and then higher toward 2765 (tactical pattern count) and ultimately the 3000–3025 zone (100% extension and the full pattern count). Until a breakout occurs, holding the rising 13-day moving average and first chart support from 2297 to 2235 would keep the near-term pattern bullish.

The 3000-3025 area coincides with the target for a bigger base breakout (Dec 26 Charted Market Insights).

If additional backing and filling is required, platinum has further support in the 2165–2146 area, defined by the January 8 low, the 38.2% retracement, and the rising 26-day moving average.

Chart 4: Platinum futures: Daily chart

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Crypto: Ethereum

Ethereum: Bullish breakout watch from a November into January basing pattern

Similar to Bitcoin (Jan 14 Straight from the Chart), Ethereum (ETH/USD) is showing the potential to break out from a November into January tactical bottoming pattern. Rising 13-, 26-, and 40-day moving averages (DMAs) at 3200–3079 reinforce the recent bullish turn in ETH/USD. While price remains above these DMAs, the probability increases for a decisive push above 3436 to confirm the base and favor further upside to 3518 (38.2% retracement of the August–November decline), 3650 (200-DMA), and 3792 (50% retracement). Beyond that, a sustained breakout would target the 4067–4200 area, corresponding to the 61.8% retracement and the tactical base pattern count.

The current tactical bottoms on both an absolute price basis and relative to the S&P 500 resemble the bullish setups for Ethereum that formed in March-May and May-July 2025.

Chart 5: Ethereum (ETH/USD) (top) and relative to the S&P 500 (bottom): Daily chart

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

ETHA: Bullish breakout watch from a November into January basing pattern

Similar to iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) (Jan 14 Straight from the Chart), the iShares Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHA) has the potential to break out from a November into January tactical bottoming pattern. Rising 13-, 26-, and 40-day moving averages (DMAs) at 23.68-23.01 reinforce the recent bullish turn in ETHA. While price remains above these DMAs, the potential increases for a decisive push above 26.09 to confirm the bottom and favor further upside to 26.55 (38.2% retracement of the August–November decline) initially, and then higher to 28.51 (50% retracement), 30.46 (61.8% retracement), and 32.00 (pattern count).

Chart 6: iShares Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHA): Daily chart

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Macro: U.S. High Yield Option Adjusted Spread

U.S. High Yield OAS still benign, but new lows needed to confirm equity rally

The U.S. High Yield option-adjusted spread (OAS) was at risk of breaking higher from a mid- to late-2025 bottom that would have signaled rising credit stress and a risk-off backdrop for equities. Fortunately, that scenario has been avoided, as the high yield OAS has remained benign and constructive, narrowing back toward its late-September low at 2.69. A decisive break below this 2.69 level is now needed to confirm the S&P 500’s push to new highs into early 2026 and to avoid a late-September to early 2026 negative divergence between credit and equities.

Chart 7: S&P 500 (top) and the U.S. High Yield option-adjusted spread (OAS) (bottom): Daily chart

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies, Ice Data Indices, LLC via FRED®

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