The Chart Check - Jan 30, 2026

Stephen Suttmeier
Jan 30
6 min read

*** Please see the bottom of this report for important disclaimers and disclosures.***

As goes January, so goes the year

January often provides a barometer for the year

The January Barometer is a classic seasonal indicator built on a simple idea: as goes January, so goes the year. Introduced by Yale Hirsch in the Stock Trader’s Almanac in 1972, it suggests that early-year momentum often carries through the remainder of the calendar year. Data back to 1928 support this tendency. When the S&P 500 finishes January higher, both the full year and the February–December period have historically delivered stronger returns, while a down January has more often preceded a weaker year. That said, the January Barometer is best used in context, alongside other technical, fundamental, and macro indicators, rather than as a standalone signal.

2026 setup: An up January favors the bulls

The SPX gained 1.4% in January, triggering a bullish January Barometer signal for 2026. Historically, when January is positive, the SPX has finished the full year higher 80% of the time, with an average gain of 13.5% (median 16.4%), while February–December has rallied 79% of the time, averaging 9.9% (median 11.8%). These tendencies do not rule out upside toward 7500–7700 by year-end 2026, though that would be ambitious in a mid-term election year. For context, since 1928 the SPX has posted an average annual return of 8.1% (median 11.6%) and finished higher 67% of the time. This historical average return equates to the SPX hitting 7400 into yearend.

A positive January also bodes well for the mid-term year

The mid-term year (Year 2) is historically the weakest year of the U.S. Presidential Cycle, with the S&P 500 up just 54% of the time on an average return of 3.3% (median 0.58%), which would imply an SPX level near 7000 by year-end 2026. However, a positive January improves the mid-term year backdrop. When January is higher, the mid-term year has averaged a 9.3% gain (median 13.2%), though the positive hit rate remains modest at 57%. Similarly, February–December has been positive only 57% of the time following an up January in mid-term years, with an average return of 5.7% (median 10.6%). With a limited sample size of just 24 mid-term years since 1930, January Barometer signals in mid-term years should also be viewed within the context of other indicator signals.

But February-March often struggle after an up January in mid-term years

While the SPX probed to an all-time high of 7002 into late January, the lack of a definitive upside breakout is a concern even in the face of a positive January Barometer signal. Historically, the SPX has posted average and median declines of -0.95% in February–March following an up January during mid-term years, suggesting the potential for near-term consolidation or downside probing over the next couple of months.

SPX shows marginal new highs, not a definitive upside breakout

The SPX has registered only marginal new highs from late December into late January, falling short of a decisive upside breakout, even with a bullish January Barometer signal. A similar setup unfolded last year, when marginal new highs from late January into early February—also accompanied by a positive January Barometer—were followed by a deeper correction into early April. Given this historical analog heading into February 2026, we are defining tactical risk-management supports at the rising 13-, 26-, and 40-day moving averages (6930–6892), followed by the 1/20 low at 6789 and the 12/17 low at 6720. If the SPX continues a choppy grind higher, channel resistance rises from 7035 toward 7100 from early to late February.

January often sets the tone for the year

January often provides a barometer for the year

2026 setup: An up January favors the bulls

Table 1: Positive January Barometer signals - S&P 500 returns when January is up – 1928-2025