The Chart Check - Jan 9, 2026

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The Chart Check - 09 Jan 2026 - Mag 7 struggles, mid-caps strengthen, and silver tilts bul. Download • 2.22MB

Mag 7 struggles, mid-caps strengthen, and silver tilts bullish

Magnificent Seven (MAGS) breaks lower from H&S tops vs. SPY and RSP

The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) peaked versus the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) in late October and has since broken down from a mid September into late December head and shoulders (H&S) top. In addition, MAGS has also confirmed a similar H&S top relative to the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP). This suggests a loss of leadership for the so-called Magnificent Seven stocks (AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, and TSLA) relative to the broader U.S. equity market on both a market cap and equal weight basis.

RSP is positioned to break higher from a H&S bottom vs. SPY

With MAGS breaking lower relative to both the SPY and RSP, the U.S. equity market leadership has the potential to shift to the “Average Joes” from the largest of S&P 500 stocks. The RSP is forming a potential late September into January H&S bottom and completing this pattern could usher in a period of leadership for the average S&P 500 stock relative to the largest stocks in the index.

Risk-on: High Beta remains bullish relative to Low Volatility

Some may ask: Is the rotation away from Magnificent Seven stocks toward the average S&P 500 stock a risk for the U.S. equity market? The Invesco S&P 500 High Beta ETF (SPHB) has hit new highs relative to the Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF (SPLV) entering 2026. The continued leadership for high beta stocks relative low volatility stocks, even as MAGS shows signs of topping out versus the SPY and RSP, provides a risk-on signal for U.S. equities.

S&P MidCap 400 (MDY) is breaking higher from a bullish cup and handle

The SPDR S&P MidCap 400 ETF (MDY) is on the move and rallying out of late 2024 into late 2025/early 2026 bullish cup and handle. Sustained strength beyond 608-624 would confirm this bullish pattern with upside potential to 684 (100% extension of the late 2022 to late 2024 rally projected from the April 2025 low) and then 757 (cup and handle pattern count). The rising 13- and 26-week moving averages near 603-595 reinforce this bullish setup on MDY.

Strong mid-cap breadth and volume A-D lines favor a decisive breakout on MDY

The S&P MidCap 400 advance-decline (A-D) and A-D volume lines have strengthened throughout 2025, pointing to broadening participation and increasing accumulation (upside or buying volume) within mid-caps. This increases the potential for a sustained breakout from the late 2024 into late 2025/early 2026 bullish cup and handle on MDY.

Silver futures: Another bullish cup and handle points higher to 86-88 and 95-96

Silver futures are forming late December into January bullish cup and handle. The immediate technical setup remains positive above the rising 13-day moving average and the developing handle low at 74.52-73.53. A decisive breakout above the early January and late December highs at 82.59-82.67 is required to confirm the cup and handle and suggest further upside potential to 86.86-87.93 (100% and 161.8% extensions) and then 95-96 (161.8% extension and cup and handle pattern count). The 12/31/2025 low at 69.25 offers additional support.

Index relative charts

Magnificent Seven (MAGS) breaks lower from H&S tops vs. SPY and RSP

The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) peaked versus the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) in late October and has since broken down from a mid September into late December head and shoulders (H&S) top. In addition, MAGS has also confirmed a similar H&S top relative to the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP). This suggests a loss of leadership for the so-called Magnificent Seven stocks (AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, and TSLA) relative to the broader U.S. equity market on both a market cap and equal weight basis.

Chart 1: Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) relative to the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

H&S top for Magnificent Seven (MAGS) vs. Average Joes (RSP)

MAGS broke down from a late September into early January H&S top relative to RSP (aka Average Joes).

Chart 2: Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) relative to the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP)

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

RSP is positioned to break higher from a H&S bottom vs. SPY

With MAGS breaking lower relative to both the SPY and RSP, the U.S. equity market leadership has the potential to shift to the “Average Joes” from the largest of S&P 500 stocks. The RSP is forming a potential late September into January H&S bottom, and completing this pattern could usher in a period of leadership for the average S&P 500 stock relative to the largest stocks in the index.

Chart 3: Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) relative to the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Risk-on: High Beta remains bullish relative to Low Volatility

Some may ask: Is the rotation away from Magnificent Seven stocks toward the average S&P 500 stock a risk for the U.S. equity market? The Invesco S&P 500 High Beta ETF (SPHB) has hit new highs relative to the Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF (SPLV) entering 2026. The continued leadership for high beta stocks relative low volatility stocks, even as MAGS shows signs of topping out versus the SPY and RSP, provides a risk-on signal for U.S. equities.

Chart 4: Invesco S&P 500 High Beta ETF (SPHB) relative to the Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF (SPLV)

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Mid-caps on the move

S&P MidCap 400 (MDY) is breaking higher from a bullish cup and handle

The SPDR S&P MidCap 400 ETF (MDY) is on the move and rallying out of late 2024 into late 2025/early 2026 bullish cup and handle. Sustained strength beyond 608-624 would confirm this bullish pattern with upside potential to 684 (100% extension of the late 2022 to late 2024 rally projected from the April 2025 low) and then 757 (cup and handle pattern count). The rising 13- and 26-week moving averages near 603-595 reinforce this bullish setup on MDY.

Chart 5: SPDR S&P MidCap 400 ETF (MDY)

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Strong mid-cap breadth and volume A-D lines favor a decisive breakout on MDY

The S&P MidCap 400 advance-decline (A-D) and A-D volume lines have strengthened throughout 2025, pointing to broadening participation and increasing accumulation (upside or buying volume) within mid-caps. This increases the potential for a sustained breakout from the late 2024 into late 2025/early 2026 bullish cup and handle on MDY.

Chart 6: SPDR S&P MidCap 400 ETF (MDY) (top), S&P MidCap 400 A-D line (center), S&P MidCap 400 A-D volume line (bottom)

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Silver futures

Silver futures: Another bullish cup and handle points higher to 86-88 and 95-96

Silver futures are forming late December into January bullish cup and handle. The immediate technical setup remains positive above the rising 13-day moving average and the developing handle low at 74.52-73.53. A decisive breakout above the early January and late December highs at 82.59-82.67 is required to confirm the cup and handle and suggest further upside potential to 86.86-87.93 (100% and 161.8% extensions) and then 95-96 (161.8% extension and cup and handle pattern count). The 12/31/2025 low at 69.25 offers additional support.

Chart notes

• The extension levels at 86.86 (100%) and 95.09 (161.8%) are generated by projecting the rally from the cup low (69.25) to the handle high (82.59) from the handle low (73.53).

• The 161.8% extension at 87.93 is derived by projecting the early April to mid October rally from the late October low.

Chart 7: Silver futures: Daily chart

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

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