The Chart Check - Nov. 13, 2025

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The Chart Check - 13 Nov 2025 - SPX and NDX pressure key support amid rising wall of worry. Download • 1.68MB

Equity indices shift to toppy from choppy

SPX stalled at broken DMAs to expose key support at 6550

The S&P 500 (SPX) gapped higher on today’s open following Nvidia’s (NVDA) blowout earnings and guidance after the close yesterday. However, intra-day strength stalled and selling pressure appeared after testing a tactical resistance zone defined by the broken 13-, 26-, and 40-day moving averages (DMAs) from 6734–6761 and an early October chart level at 6765. Ensuing weakness pressures key support at the “Trump Tariff Tweet” low from October 10 at 6550. The SPX could be forming a September into November-December head and shoulders (H&S) top, and decisive break below 6550 would confirm this pattern and signal deeper downside risk.

The S&P 500 (SPX) gapped higher on today’s open following Nvidia’s (NVDA) blowout earnings and guidance after yesterday’s close, but early strength stalled and selling pressure emerged after testing a tactical resistance zone at the broken 13-, 26-, and 40-day moving averages (DMAs) from 6734–6761 and an early October chart level at 6765. The reversal from this zone refocuses attention on key support at 6550, the “Trump Tariff Tweet” low from October 10, and raises the risk that the SPX is forming a September–November/December head and shoulders (H&S) top.

If the SPX breaks 6550, risk to 6430 initially with support at 6200-6100

Our last Charted Market Insights report highlighted that ominous signals increase the risk for deeper pullback. The weekly chart for the SPX has faced overhangs of a bearish doji and an upside exhaustion gap. Closing below the rising 13-week moving average (WMA) near 6646 and the weekly bearish engulfing pattern lows from the weeks ending 11/7 and 10/10 at 6631–6550 would confirm the H&S top highlighted above and set the stage for a deeper pullback toward the rising 26-WMA near 6430 initially and the rising 40-WMA, and mid 2025 breakout zone in the 6200-6100 range. If these supports do not decisively break, holding below the shoulder peaks near 6770 would preserve the bearish setup for the SPX.

Our last Charted Market Insights report highlighted that ominous signals increase the risk for deeper pullback. A decisive break below 6550 would confirm the H&S top pattern and signal deeper downside risk, with initial support at the rising 26-week moving average (WMA) near 6430 and additional support at the rising 40-WMA and mid-2025 breakout zone in the 6200–6100 area. Our recent Charted Market Insights report noted that a bearish doji, an upside exhaustion gap, and weekly bearish engulfing lows at 6631–6550 add to the downside risk, and unless these supports hold, remaining below the shoulder peaks near 6770 would keep the bearish setup intact for the SPX.

Bond futures defend tactical support

5, 5 BE

The weekly picture remains challenging for the NDX, with a bearish shooting star, bearish engulfing pattern, and exhaustion gap all still weighing on the index. The near-term strength that emerged from last Friday’s hammer low has already faded, and if tactical support at 25,075–25,065 gives way, attention shifts to the weekly bearish engulfing pattern lows from the weeks ending 11/7 and 10/10. These define a major support zone at 24,600–24,200, with the rising 13-week moving average (24,529) reinforcing the upper boundary of this area.

Silver: Important risk management levels

The wall of worry remains firmly in place. AAII Bearish Sentiment jumped to 49.1%, indicating that individual investors have become too bearish, which can act as a contrarian tailwind for U.S. equities as the SPX and NDX pressure tactical supports. This marks the highest bearish reading since 49.5% in the week ending September 12, a period after which the SPX staged a rally into late October.

Small caps pressure big support

All eyes are on key support for the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) at 237.55-236.27. We also highlight key support for the iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF (IJR). See our 11/13 Straight from the Chart blog post for more.

S&P 500

SPX: Must hold tactical uptrend support at 6732-6720 under pressure

Monday’s gap higher confirmed Friday’s bullish hammer on the S&P 500 (SPX), but elevated volatility quickly erased that momentum. Thursday’s sharp decline filled the 6770–6730 gap, putting pressure on key tactical support at the rising 40-day moving average and the lower up-channel line near 6732–6720. We view this zone as tactically important for the SPX. Holding it would keep the immediate uptrend intact and refocus attention on resistance near the 6920–6970 highs, with projected channel resistance extending into the 7000–7100 area.

Chart 1: S&P 500: Daily candle chart

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

SPX: Weekly bearish engulfing pattern lows key support at 6631-6550

On the weekly chart, the SPX still faces the overhang of a bearish doji and an upside exhaustion gap. The tactical strength from last Friday’s hammer low has faded, and if support at 6732–6720 breaks, the next meaningful backstop is defined by the weekly bearish engulfing pattern lows from the weeks ending 11/7 and 10/10. These create a key support zone at 6631–6550, reinforced by the rising 13-week moving average (6640) at its upper edge.

Chart notes

·         Rising 26- and 40-WMAs at 6402 and 6143, respectively, represent a bullish trading cycle for the SPX.

·         The rising 40-WMA reinforces the mid 2025 breakout point

·         The breakout from a late 2024 into mid 2025 bullish consolidation pattern remains intact above 6147-6100 and supports longer-term upside to 7440 (pattern count) and 7490 (100% extension level)

Chart 2: S&P 500: Weekly candle chart

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

NASDAQ 100

NDX: Post-daily hammer strength fades, pressuring tactical support

The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) has stalled, fully filling Monday’s upside gap from 25,354 to 25,065, which now calls into question the confirmed bullish daily hammer from last Friday (11/7). This index now pressures key tactical support at 25,075-25,065 (lower end of the Monday’s upside gap, rising 40-day moving average, and up channel support line). A quick rebound is needed for the NDX’s tactical uptrend to regain traction, but the 11/4 downside gap at 25,762–25,887 may provide an overhang ahead of the late-October peak at 26,182.

Chart 3: NASDAQ 100: Daily candle chart

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

NDX: Weekly bearish engulfing pattern lows key support at 24,600–24,200

The weekly picture remains challenging for the NDX, with a bearish shooting star, bearish engulfing pattern, and exhaustion gap all still weighing on the index. The near-term strength that emerged from last Friday’s hammer low has already faded, and if tactical support at 25,075–25,065 gives way, attention shifts to the weekly bearish engulfing pattern lows from the weeks ending 11/7 and 10/10. These define a major support zone at 24,600–24,200, with the rising 13-week moving average (24,529) reinforcing the upper boundary of this area.

Chart notes

·         Rising 26- and 40-WMAs at 23,490 and 22,242, respectively, represent a bullish trading cycle for the NDX.

·         The rising 40-WMA reinforces the mid 2025 breakout point

·         The breakout from a late 2024 into mid 2025 bullish consolidation pattern remains intact above 22,222-22,133 and supports longer-term upside to 27,600 (pattern count) and 28,324 (100% extension level)

Chart 4: NASDAQ 100: Weekly candlestick chart

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

AAII Bearish Sentiment

Silver lining: Wall of worry as individual investor sentiment turns too bearish

The wall of worry remains firmly in place. AAII Bearish Sentiment jumped to 49.1%, indicating that individual investors have become too bearish, which can act as a contrarian tailwind for U.S. equities as the SPX and NDX pressure tactical supports. This marks the highest bearish reading since 49.5% in the week ending September 12, a period after which the SPX staged a rally into late October.

Chart 5: AAII Bearish Sentiment: Weekly chart with overbought and oversold Bollinger Bands

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies, AAII

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