The Chart Check - Nov. 20, 2025

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The Chart Check - 20 Nov 2025 - Equity indices shift to toppy from choppy.pdf Download PDF • 1.94MB

Equity indices shift to toppy from choppy

SPX stalled at broken DMAs to increase H&S top risk and expose key 6550 support

The S&P 500 (SPX) gapped higher on today’s (11/20) open following Nvidia’s (NVDA) blowout earnings and guidance after yesterday’s close, but early strength stalled and selling pressure emerged after testing tactical resistance at the broken 13-, 26-, and 40-day moving averages (DMAs) from 6730–6756 and an early October chart level at 6765 (Nov 20 Straight from the Chart Blog). The reversal from this zone refocuses attention on key support at 6550, the “Trump Tariff Tweet” low from October 10, and raises the risk that the SPX is forming a September–November / December head and shoulders (H&S) top. An update for the NASDAQ 100 (NDX) inside this report.

If the SPX breaks 6550, risk to 6430 initially with stronger support at 6200-6100

Our last Charted Market Insights report suggested that ominous signals increase the risk for deeper pullback. The SPX has struggled with a bearish doji and an upside exhaustion gap its weekly chart and could close below its 13-WMA (6646) for the first time since the week ending May 2. A decisive loss of 6550 would confirm the H&S top pattern highlighted above, signaling deeper risk to the rising 26-WMA at 6430 initially and then to stronger support at the rising 40-WMA and mid-2025 breakout zone at 6200–6100. If the SPX does not decisively break 6550, the developing H&S top remains intact below the deteriorating DMAs at 6730–6756 and the shoulder peaks near 6770.

Market breadth overhangs continue to weigh on the U.S. equity market

Our November 4 and 18 Chart Market Insight reports and Straight from the Chart blog highlighted deteriorating market breadth. Although the SPX sits well above its rising 200-DMA, the percentage of SPX stocks above 200-DMAs is breaking lower and moved below the 50% level. In our view, this increases the risk for a break under 6550 on the SPX. The NDX advance-decline (A-D) line went from confirming the rally in late October to breaking to a 3-month low in late November. In our view, this increases the risk for a break beneath 24,200 on the NDX.

10-year T-note futures defend key support from 112’ 20 to 112’ 06

10-year U.S. Treasury Note futures remain stuck within what could be a 2023-2025 bottoming pattern. Key tactical support within this base-building process from 112’ 20 to 112 ’06 is holding so far, and 10-year T-note futures could form a weekly bullish engulfing pattern if today’s (11/20) strength can extend into tomorrow close. Key resistance remains 113’ 29 to 114’ 10, where a decisive break high would suggest that 10-year T-note futures are completing its big base. We flagged these developing big bases across 5-year and 2-year T-note futures in our Straight from the Chart blog on November 5^th, and the key chart supports and resistances remain intact.

Some good news: Inflation expectations are falling

The 5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate (5y5y), a widely followed gauge of long-term U.S. inflation expectations, represents the market’s outlook for average inflation over the five-year period beginning five years from now. The good news is that this long-term inflation measure is declining from its July peak. A sustained move below the 61.8% retracement of the April–July rise at 2.17% would strengthen the case for a further pullback toward the April low near 2.02%.

S&P 500

SPX stalled at broken DMAs to increase H&S top risk and expose key 6550 support

The S&P 500 (SPX) gapped higher on today’s (11/20) open following Nvidia’s (NVDA) blowout earnings and guidance after yesterday’s close, but early strength stalled and selling pressure emerged after testing tactical resistance at the broken 13-, 26-, and 40-day moving averages (DMAs) from 6730–6756 and an early October chart level at 6765 (Nov 20 Straight from the Chart Blog). The reversal from this zone refocuses attention on key support at 6550, the “Trump Tariff Tweet” low from October 10, and raises the risk that the SPX is forming a September–November / December head and shoulders (H&S) top.

Chart 1: S&P 500: Daily candle chart

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

If the SPX breaks 6550, risk to 6430 initially with stronger support at 6200-6100

Our last Charted Market Insights report suggested that ominous signals increase the risk for deeper pullback. The SPX has struggled with a bearish doji and an upside exhaustion gap its weekly chart and could close below its 13-WMA (6646) for the first time since the week ending May 2. A decisive loss of 6550 would confirm the H&S top pattern highlighted above, signaling deeper risk to the rising 26-WMA at 6430 initially and then to stronger support at the rising 40-WMA and mid-2025 breakout zone at 6200–6100. If the SPX does not decisively break 6550, the developing H&S top remains intact below the deteriorating DMAs at 6730–6756 and the shoulder peaks near 6770.

Chart notes

·         The SPX could close below its 13-WMA (6646) for the first time since the week ending May 2.

·         Rising 26- and 40-WMAs at 6430 and 6154, respectively, represent a bullish trading cycle for the SPX.

·         The rising 40-WMA reinforces the mid 2025 breakout point.

·         The breakout from a late 2024 into mid 2025 bullish consolidation pattern remains intact above 6147-6100 and supports longer-term upside to 7440 (pattern count) and 7490 (100% extension level).

Chart 2: S&P 500: Weekly candle chart

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

NASDAQ 100

NDX stalled at broken DMAs as H&S top risk exposes key 24,200 support

Similar to the SPX, the NASDAQ 100 (NDX) also gapped higher on the 11/20 open, but early strength stalled and selling pressure emerged after testing tactical resistance at the broken 13-, 26-, and 40-day moving averages (DMAs) from 25,070 to 25,250 and an early October chart level at 25,195. The reversal from this zone refocuses attention on key support at the NDX’s “Trump Tariff Tweet” low at 24,200, raising the risk for a September–November / December head and shoulders (H&S) top.

Chart 3: NASDAQ 100: Daily candle chart

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

If the NDX breaks 24,200, risk to 23,600 initially and then 22,222-22,133

The weekly picture remains challenging for the NDX, with a bearish shooting star, bearish engulfing pattern, and exhaustion gap all still weighing on the index. The NDX closed below 24,200 on 11/20, and a decisive break below this level would confirm the H&S top highlighted above, signaling deeper downside risk to the rising 26-week moving average (WMA) at 23,600 initially and then toward more important support at the rising 40-WMA and mid-2025 breakout zone in the 22,300-22,100 area. If the NDX does not decisively break 24,200, remaining below the deteriorating DMAs at 25,070 to 25,250 and the shoulder peaks near 25,223 would keep the developing H&S top intact on the NDX.

Chart notes

·         The NDX could close below its 13-WMA (24,573) for the first time since the week ending May

·         Rising 26- and 40-WMAs at 23,490 and 22,242, respectively, represent a bullish trading cycle for the NDX.

·         The rising 40-WMA reinforces the mid 2025 breakout point

·         The breakout from a late 2024 into mid 2025 bullish consolidation pattern remains intact above 22,222-22,133 and supports longer-term upside to 27,600 (pattern count) and 28,324 (100% extension level)

Chart 4: NASDAQ 100: Weekly candlestick chart

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Breadth indicators breaking lower

Market breadth overhangs continue to weigh on the U.S. equity market

Our November 4 and 18 Chart Market Insight reports and Straight from the Chart blog highlighted deteriorating market breadth. Although the SPX sits well above its rising 200-DMA, the percentage of SPX stocks above 200-DMAs is breaking lower and moved below the 50% level (Chart 5). In our view, this increases the risk for a break under 6550 on the SPX. The NDX advance-decline (A-D) line went from confirming the rally in late October to breaking to a 3-month low in late November. In our view, this increases the risk for a break beneath 24,200 on the NDX (Chart 6).

Chart 5: S&P 500 (top) and the percentage of S&P 500 stocks above 200-day moving averages (bottom)

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Chart 6: NASDAQ 100 (top) and NASDAQ 100 advance-decline line (bottom)

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Macro markets

10-year T-note futures defend key support from 112’ 20 to 112’ 06

10-year U.S. Treasury Note futures remain confined within what could be a 2023–2025 bottoming pattern. Key tactical support in the base-building process from 112’20 to 112’06 is holding so far, and a weekly bullish engulfing pattern could form if today’s (11/20) strength carries into tomorrow’s close. Major resistance remains at 113’29 to 114’10, where a decisive breakout would suggest that 10-year T-note futures are completing their large base. We highlighted similar developing bases across the 5-year and 2-year T-note futures in our November 5 Straight from the Chart blog, and the key support and resistance levels on these contracts remain intact.

Chart 7: 10-year U.S. Treasury note futures

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED)

Some good news: Inflation expectations are falling

The 5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate (5y5y), a widely followed gauge of long-term U.S. inflation expectations, represents the market’s outlook for average inflation over the five-year period beginning five years from now. The good news is that this long-term inflation measure is declining from its July peak. A sustained move below the 61.8% retracement of the April–July rise at 2.17% would strengthen the case for a further pullback toward the April low near 2.02%.

Chart 8: 5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED)

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