The Chart Check - Nov. 28, 2025

*** Please see the bottom of this report for important disclaimers and disclosures.***

The Chart Check - 28 Nov 2025 - December stronger after a lackluster November.pdf Download PDF • 1.94MB

December stronger after a lackluster November

SPX seasonality scenarios: A lackluster November bodes well for December

With a positive hit rate of 73%, December is the month of the year that the S&P 500 (SPX) is most likely to trade higher. The average and median SPX returns for December going back to 1928 are 1.28% and 1.49%, respectively. The SPX was up 0.13% in November 2025 vs. the average November return of 1.00%. Historically, December seasonality is even stronger after a lackluster November, with the SPX up 78% of the time on average and median returns of 1.77% and 2.13%, respectively. This equates to the SPX reaching the mid to upper 6900s into year-end.

SPX: Bollinger Bands corroborate key market levels and December seasonality

The SPX undercut 6550 support prior to a sharp rally beyond tactical chart resistance at 6765-6775. This establishes 6550-6521 (Trump Tariff Tweet and post-NVDA earnings lows) as key support, placing the focus back on the late October record high of 6920 and the 7000 area into year-end. Weekly and daily Bollinger Bands corroborate these levels. The 6500s support aligns with the 20-week moving average (WMA) near 6576, which is middle band of the 2.0 standard deviation weekly Bollinger Bands. While above this moving average, the SPX shows potential to the 2.0 and 2.5 upper bands at 6928-7017. The lower Bollinger Bands at 6225-6136 coincide with the mid 2025 breakout point.

SPX: Daily Bollinger Bands flip bullish on closes above 20-DMA near 6745

In terms of the daily Bollinger Bands, the SPX flipped bearish on the November 13 move below the 20-day moving average (DMA), which marks the center band on the 2.0 standard deviation daily Bollinger Bands, and hugged the lower bands from November 14-November 21. However, the SPX has since rallied and reclaimed the 20-DMA (6745) on Tuesday (11/24). This confirms a stronger tactical trend to target the upper bands at 6931-6978 (see December seasonality above). The lower bands from 6559 to 6512 coincide with the important 6550-6521 chart support. We addressed Bollinger Bands on the SPX in The Charted Line webcast on 11/26 (replay on our Subscriber Dashboard).

New highs for advance-decline lines a leading indicator for new highs on the SPX

Although the SPX is below its record high of 6920 from late October (10/29), Friday’s (11/28) new highs for both the SPX advance-decline (A-D) and volume A-D lines provide a potential bullish leading indicator for new highs on the SPX moving into the seasonally strong month of December.

Convertible bond ETF (CWB) remains bullish after pullback

The SPDR Barclays Capital Convertible Bond ETF (CWB) remains bullish after a correction that defended the rising 26-week moving average (WMA) near 86.96 as support on a brief undercut to 84.37. Last week’s close back above the rising 13-WMA has the potential to refresh the bullish trend for CWB, with upside potential back into the 92.97 (early 2021 peak) to 94.54 (October peak) area. In addition, rising 26- and 40-WMAs from 86.96 to 83.64 reinforce the breakout from the 2022-2025 cup and handle base that supports longer-term upside to 101.25 (pattern count).

S&P 500 December seasonality scenarios

SPX seasonality scenarios: A lackluster November bodes well for December

With a positive hit rate of 73%, December is the month of the year that the S&P 500 (SPX) is most likely to trade higher. The average and median SPX returns for December going back to 1928 are 1.28% and 1.49%, respectively. The SPX was up 0.13% in November 2025 vs. the average November return of 1.00%. Historically, December seasonality is even stronger after a lackluster November, with the SPX up 78% of the time on average and median returns of 1.77% and 2.13%, respectively. This equates to the SPX reaching the mid to upper 6900s into year-end.

Chart 1: S&P 500 monthly seasonality 1928 to present

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Table 1: S&P 500 December price returns after an above average November, below average November, and for all years from 1928-2024

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

S&P 500: Bollinger Bands tell a story

SPX: Bollinger Bands corroborate key market levels and December seasonality

The SPX undercut 6550 support prior to a sharp rally beyond tactical chart resistance at 6765-6775. This establishes 6550-6521 (Trump Tariff Tweet and post-NVDA earnings lows) as key support, placing the focus back on the late October record high of 6920 and the 7000 area into year-end. Weekly and daily Bollinger Bands corroborate these levels. The 6500s support aligns with the 20-week moving average (WMA) near 6576, which is middle band of the 2.0 standard deviation weekly Bollinger Bands. While above this moving average, the SPX shows potential to the 2.0 and 2.5 upper bands at 6928-7017. The lower Bollinger Bands at 6225-6136 coincide with the mid 2025 breakout point.

Chart 2: S&P 500: Weekly candle chart with 2.0 and 2.5 standard deviation Bollinger Bands

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

SPX: Daily Bollinger Bands flip bullish on closes above 20-DMA near 6745

In terms of the daily Bollinger Bands, the SPX flipped bearish on the November 13 move below the 20-day moving average (DMA), which marks the center band on the 2.0 standard deviation daily Bollinger Bands, and hugged the lower bands from November 14-November 21. However, the SPX has since rallied and reclaimed the 20-DMA (6745) on Tuesday (11/24). This confirms a stronger tactical trend to target the upper bands at 6931-6978 (see December seasonality above). The lower bands from 6559 to 6512 coincide with the important 6550-6521 chart support. We addressed Bollinger Bands on the SPX in The Charted Line webcast on 11/26 (replay on our Subscriber Dashboard).

Chart 3: Daily candle chart with 2.0 and 2.5 standard deviation Bollinger Bands

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Breadth and volume advance-decline lines

New highs for advance-decline lines a leading indicator for new highs on the SPX

Although the SPX is below its record high of 6920 from late October (10/29), Friday’s (11/28) new highs for both the SPX advance-decline (A-D) and volume A-D lines provide a potential bullish leading indicator for new highs on the SPX moving into the seasonally strong month of December.

Chart 4: S&P 500 (top) and S&P 500 advance-decline line (bottom)

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Chart 5: S&P 500 (top) and S&P 500 advance-decline volume line (bottom)

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Convertible bond ETF firms up

Convertible bond ETF (CWB) remains bullish after pullback

The SPDR Barclays Capital Convertible Bond ETF (CWB) remains bullish after a correction that defended the rising 26-week moving average (WMA) near 86.96 as support on a brief undercut to 84.37. Last week’s close back above the rising 13-WMA has the potential to refresh the bullish trend for CWB, with upside potential back into the 92.97 (early 2021 peak) to 94.54 (October peak) area. In addition, rising 26- and 40-WMAs from 86.96 to 83.64 reinforce the breakout from the 2022-2025 cup and handle base that supports longer-term upside to 101.25 (pattern count).

Chart 6: SPDR Barclays Capital Convertible Bond ETF (CWB)

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Suttmeier Technical Strategies, LLC (STS) provides financial commentary and market analysis for educational and informational purposes only. We are not registered investment advisors, and nothing published by STS should be considered personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or a solicitation to engage in investment activity. All content is impersonal and does not consider your individual financial circumstances. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risk, and you should consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. STS or its representatives may hold positions in securities mentioned in our publications. Such holdings are subject to change without notice and do not constitute investment advice.