The Hindenburg Omen

The Hindenburg Omen: A warning sign for market instability but not always bearish

Wow! What a colorful name! The Hindenburg Omen is one of those technical signals that always catches the attention of investors. This ominous signal is not direct forecast of a market crash, but it’s a warning that the market’s internal structure is breaking down, even if the major indexes still look healthy on the surface.

The Hindenburg Omen has flashed six times so far in October, with the last two signals on 10/29 and 10/30 happening just after fresh highs on the S&P 500 advance-decline and volume advance-decline lines confirmed the record high for the index on 10/27.

What is the Hindenburg Omen?

In a strong bull market, most stocks tend to rise together. Named after the 1937 airship disaster, the Hindenburg Omen triggers when market breadth becomes out of sync and inconsistent, with too many stocks hitting new highs and too many stocks hitting new lows at the same time. When both new highs and new lows expand simultaneously, it signals a divergence beneath the surface. This sign of the confusion and instability often occurs ahead of market corrections.

How is the Hindenburg Omen calculated?

The signal is based on broad-based NYSE data and required several conditions to align on the same trading session. These are as follows:

• New 52-week highs and new 52-week lows are both elevated

The number of stocks hitting new 52-week highs and those hitting new 52-week lows each exceed 2.2% of all issues traded.

• New 52-week highs do not dominate new 52-week lows

The number of new highs cannot exceed twice the number of new lows, reinforcing the idea of internal conflict as stocks reaching new lows suggest some deterioration beneath the surface in terms of market breadth.

• The market index is in an uptrend

The NYSE Composite Index must be above its level from 50 trading days ago, confirming that the market is still technically trending higher.

• Weak momentum for market breadth

The McClellan Oscillator — a measure of internal market momentum — is negative, showing that participation is thinning out on a tactical basis.

Note well: All of these conditions must occur together for a valid Hindenburg Omen signal.

Hindenburg Omen suggests internal instability but is not always a bearish signal

The Hindenburg Omen serves as a market breadth warning system. When triggered, it tells investors and traders that the surface strength of the market may be masking internal weakness.

• Signal: Internal instability in market breadth

• Implication: Elevated risk of correction and sometimes even a bear market

• Reliability: Imperfect - not always a bearish signal and is best viewed as a warning, not a forecast

Do not use the Hindenburg Omen in isolation. As with any technical indicator, context matters. The Hindenburg Omen works best when used alongside other breadth, momentum, sentiment, and even macro indicators — not in isolation.

A look at past Hindenburg Omen signals

Chart 1 below show the NYSE Comp and Hindenburg signals going back to mid 2024.

• October 2025 - six signals so far

• August 2025 - four signals and the market rallied into October - signal did not work

• December 2024 - three signals with the market trending lower - signal confirmed a corrective phase

• November 2024 - five signals and the market rallied on a tactical basis - signal did not work

• October 31 and November 1, 2024 - two signals and the market rallied on a tactical basis - signal did not work

• September 2024 - four signals and the market rallied - signal did not work

• July 2024 - four signals and the market rallied on a tactical basis - signal did not work

Chart 1: NYSE Comp and Hindenburg Omen signals July 2024-October 2025

Chart 2 below shows the NYSE Comp and Hindenburg signals going back to mid 2023 into mid 2024.

• May 2024 - one signal confirmed a corrective phase for the NYSE - an okay signal

• April 2024 - one signal happened well after the interim peak and closer to the end of the correction - not a good signal

• February 2024 - one signal and the market rallied - signal did not work

• September 2023 - three signals and the market continued to correct into late October - the bearish signal worked

• August 2023 - one signal and the market corrected lower into late October - the bearish signal worked

• May 2023 - one signal and the market rallied - signal did not work

Chart 2: NYSE Comp and Hindenburg Omen signals mid 2023 into mid 2024

Chart 3 below shows the NYSE Comp and Hindenburg signals from late 2021 into early 2022.

• April 2022 - three signals confirmed a continued corrective phase for the NYSE from its late 2021 and early 2022 peaks - the Hindenburg Omen worked

• January 2022 - one signal happened near the highs and the market corrected into late 2022 - the Hindenburg Omen worked.

• December 2021 - three signals and the market rebounded to retest the highs - a signal within a topping process for the U.S. equity market

• November 2021 - five signals - Hindenburg Omen worked and coincided with the start of bear market into the late 2022 low

• September 2021 - one signal and the market rallied - signal did not work

Chart 3: NYSE Comp and Hindenburg Omen signals from late 2021 into early 2022

Chart 4 below shows the NYSE Comp and Hindenburg signals from late 2019 into early 2020.

• Late January into early February 2020 - five signals preceded the COVID-19 correction - the Hindenburg Omen worked well

• November 2019 - two signals and the market rallied - signal did not work

• August 2019 - four signals - the first one confirmed a corrective phase, but the last three occurred as the market was bottoming out and preceded a rally - last three signals did not work

• July 2019 - two signals - Hindenburg Omen worked and preceded a correction into mid August

• Mid to late May 2019 - five signals - confirmed the corrective phase from late April

• Early May 2019 - one signal and the market corrected into late May - signal worked

Chart 4: NYSE Comp and Hindenburg Omen signals from late 2019 into early 2020

Chart 5 below shows the NYSE Comp and Hindenburg signals in 2018.

• Late September into early October 2018 - five signals preceded the correction into late December - the Hindenburg Omen worked well

• Early September 2018 - two signals and the market rallied - signal did not work

• Mid August - three signals occurred near a tactical low and the market rallied - signals did not work

• Late April 2018 - one signal but the market continued a choppy recovery into late September - Hindenburg Omen did not work

• Late February - one signal - confirmed a corrective phase

• Late January into early February - three signals and the market corrected sharply into an early February low - signal worked

Chart 5: NYSE Comp and Hindenburg Omen signals in 2018