The Stock Pulse - Dec. 17, 2025

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The Stock Pulse - 17 Dec 2025 - Three bulls NDAQ, PFG, and ROKU; One vulnerable IBKR.pdf Download PDF • 1.79MB

Three bulls: NDAQ, PFG, and ROKU; One vulnerable: IBKR

Three bullish stocks: NDAQ, PFG, and ROKU; One vulnerable stock: IBKR

• Nasdaq (NDAQ) has broken out from a bullish wedge, reinforcing its uptrend with upside potential toward 97.63, then 102.50–105.00 and 117.55.

• Principal Financial (PFG) continues to build a multi-year base, where a decisive move above 92–96 would confirm a breakout targeting 115–119.

• Roku (ROKU) is pressing against the top of a large base dating to mid-2022, with a breakout above 104.96–108.84 needed to unlock upside beyond 116.66 toward 165–179.

• In contrast, Interactive Brokers (IBKR) remains vulnerable below 66.82–68.07, where a potential head-and-shoulders top risks downside into the 59.95–57.86 area and possibly lower. More details inside this report.

Nasdaq (NDAQ): Bullish wedge reinforces uptrend for 102.50-105.00 and 117.55

NDAQ, a capital markets stock, has broken higher from an August into December falling (aka bullish) wedge. This pattern reinforces this stock’s uptrend and marked a retest of the June 2025 breakout. Holding the 91-88 area (wedge breakout point and 13-/26-week moving averages) keeps the immediate pattern bullish with upside potential back to the August high at 97.63 initially and then higher to 102.50-105.00 (mid 2025 breakout target and 61.8% extension) and 117.55 (100% extension).

Principal Financial (PFG): Positioned to break out from a 3-year big base

PFG is an insurance stock that is forming an early 2023 into late 2025/early 2026 big base. A decisive rally above 92 would confirm this bullish pattern and suggest upside potential to the pattern counts at 115 and 119. Clearing the early 2023/late 2022 peaks at 93.78-96.17 would increase conviction in a bullish breakout. Until these breakouts occur, holding above or near support at 86-85 would keep the pattern bullish. Rising weekly moving averages (WMAs) from 84.00 down to 78.73 reinforce this base-building process for PFG.

Roku (ROKU): In position to break out from a big base dating back to mid 2022

ROKU, an entertainment stock, is attempting to break out from a mid 2022 into late 2025/early 2026 big base. A decisive rally above 104.96-108.84 would confirm this big bottoming pattern with upside potential beyond the late October spike high at 116.66 toward the pattern counts at 165 and 179. Until then, rising 13- and 26-week moving averages (WMAs) from 100.22 to 95.62 reinforce this bullish setup ahead of chart support at 92.41-90.55.

Interactive Brokers (IBKR): A vulnerable chart below 66.82-68.07

IBKR, a capital markets stock, is vulnerable to the downside and at risk of forming a head-and-shoulders (H&S) top. While below 66.82–68.07, the stock risks completing the right shoulder of this pattern. That scenario would target initial downside into the 59.95–57.86 area, which aligns with the H&S top neckline, key chart supports, the rising 40-week moving average, and the 38.2% retracement of the April–October rally. A decisive break of this zone would open the door to deeper weakness toward the 50% and 61.8% retracements at 53.08 and 48.30, respectively. A recovery back above 66.82–68.07 is needed to improve the technical outlook for IBKR.

Monitor our “Straight from the Chart” blog for more stock and ETF charts

What is The Stock Pulse?

The Stock Pulse provides bullish and bearish stock and ETF ideas

The Stock Pulse highlights bullish and bearish technical setups across common stocks, ADRs, and ETFs. The report emphasizes weekly charts to reduce short-term noise and targets a three-to-six-month investment horizon. We analyze price action and trends from both an absolute and relative perspective. Our relative benchmark is typically the S&P 500. We focus on the technicals, we but encourage investors to evaluate the fundamentals before acting on the ideas presented in The Stock Pulse.

We can categorize these charts as follows:

• Bullish leadership: Bullish absolute and bullish relative trends. This technical setup represents a confirmed bullish trend. It also can indicate a bullish momentum stock.

  • Actions to consider: Buy dips, hold longs, and avoid shorts. 

• Bearish laggard: Bearish absolute and bearish relative trends. This technical setup represents a confirmed bearish trend. It also can indicate a bearish momentum stock.

  • Actions to consider: Sell rallies, hold shorts, and avoid longs.

• Bullish weakening: A bullish absolute trend and a deteriorating to bearish relative trend. The stock has rallied but lags its benchmark. This lack of bullish relative confirmation provides a negative divergence, which is a potential bearish leading indicator for the absolute price chart.

  • Actions to consider: Protect or reduce absolute longs, consider relative shorts, and if aggressive, initialize an absolute short.

• Bearish strengthening: A bearish absolute trend and an improving to bullish relative trend. The stock has declined, but it has dropped less than its benchmark. This lack of bearish relative confirmation provides a positive divergence, which is a potential bullish leading indicator for the absolute price chart.

  • Actions to consider: Protect or reduce absolute shorts, consider relative longs, and if aggressive, initialize an absolute long.

Key indicators

We rely weekly charts – both absolute and relative – with simple weekly moving averages (WMA) and Trend Scores to assess the technical condition of the stocks, ADRs, and ETFS highlighted in this note. In addition, we may also highlight other important indicators and well as provide technical screens.

Weekly moving averages show multiple timeframes on one chart

• The slope of the moving average is more important than whether the price is above or below it

• 13-WMA: Quarterly and tactical trend

• 26-WMA: Half-year and intermediate trend

• 40-WMA: Longer-term trend and similar to the 200-day moving average

• 200-WMA: Long-term or macro trend

Trend Scores

• Trend Score: Ranges from -10 to +10 and incorporates the 13-, 26-, and 40-WMAs. Higher scores indicate stronger trends with prices above rising WMAs. Lower scores indicate weaker trends with price below declining WMAs. Longer WMAs are more heavily weighted.

• Long-term Trend Score: Ranges from -20 to +20 and includes the 13-, 26-, 40-, and 200-WMAs. Higher scores reflect stronger long-term uptrends, while lower scores indicate long-term downtrends. Longer WMAs carry more weight.

Three bullish charts: NDAQ, PFG, and ROKU

Nasdaq (NDAQ): Bullish wedge reinforces uptrend for 102.50-105.00 and 117.55

NDAQ, a capital markets stock, has broken higher from an August into December falling (aka bullish) wedge. This pattern reinforces this stock’s uptrend and marked a retest of the June 2025 breakout. Holding the 91-88 area (wedge breakout point and 13-/26-week moving averages) keeps the immediate pattern bullish with upside potential back to the August high at 97.63 initially and then higher to 102.50-105.00 (mid 2025 breakout target and 61.8% extension) and 117.55 (100% extension).

Chart notes:

• The rising 40-week moving average near 86.55 and the breakout and retest zone at 84.76-83.77 offer additional support.

• The 61.8% and 100% extension targets highlighted above are derived by taking the April to August rally and projecting the length of that rally from the late November low.

• NDAQ shows bullish rotation relative to the S&P 500 (SPX) from late October. The late October low could represent a higher low for NDAQ vs. the SPX within an uptrend that began from a double bottom off of the July 2023 and July 2024 relative lows.

Chart 1: Nasdaq Inc. (NDAQ) (top) and relative to the S&P 500 (bottom)

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Principal Financial (PFG): Positioned to break out from a 3-year big base

PFG is an insurance stock that is forming an early 2023 into late 2025/early 2026 big base. A decisive rally above 92 would confirm this bullish pattern and suggest upside potential to the pattern counts at 115 and 119. Clearing the early 2023/late 2022 peaks at 93.78-96.17 would increase conviction in a bullish breakout. Until these breakouts occur, holding above or near support at 86-85 would keep the pattern bullish. Rising weekly moving averages (WMAs) from 84.00 down to 78.73 reinforce this base-building process for PFG.

Chart notes:

• A rising 200-WMA suggests that PFG’s basing process is a bullish continuation pattern.

• PFG shows bullish rotation from a late October low relative to the SPX and attempts a push above its declining relative 40-WMA. Sustaining this move would place the focus on a continued bullish rotation (aka leadership) for PFG with the declining 200-WMA vs. the SPX the next target.

Chart 2: Principal Financial Group Inc. (PFG) (top) and relative to the S&P 500 (bottom)

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Roku (ROKU): In position to break out from a big base dating back to mid 2022

ROKU, an entertainment stock, is attempting to break out from a mid 2022 into late 2025/early 2026 big base. A decisive rally above 104.96-108.84 would confirm this big bottoming pattern with upside potential beyond the late October spike high at 116.66 toward the pattern counts at 165 and 179. Until then, rising 13- and 26-week moving averages (WMAs) from 100.22 to 95.62 reinforce this bullish setup ahead of chart support at 92.41-90.55.

Chart notes:

• ROKU is also attempting to break out from an early 2024 into late 2025 bottoming pattern relative to the SPX.

• Rising 26- and 40-WMAs indicate bullish trading cycles on both an absolute price basis and relative to the SPX, underpinning the absolute and relative base-building processes for ROKU.

Chart 3: Roku Inc. (ROKU) (top) and relative to the S&P 500 (bottom)

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

One vulnerable stock chart: IBKR

Interactive Brokers (IBKR): A vulnerable chart below 66.82-68.07

IBKR, a capital markets stock, is vulnerable to the downside and at risk of forming a head-and-shoulders (H&S) top. While below 66.82–68.07, the stock risks completing the right shoulder of this pattern. That scenario would target initial downside into the 59.95–57.86 area, which aligns with the H&S top neckline, key chart supports, the rising 40-week moving average, and the 38.2% retracement of the April–October rally. A decisive break of this zone would open the door to deeper weakness toward the 50% and 61.8% retracements at 53.08 and 48.30, respectively. A recovery back above 66.82–68.07 is needed to improve the technical outlook for IBKR.

Chart notes:

• IBKR has struggled relative to the SPX since early October and is at risk to break lower and confirm a July into December relative price top. In our view, this would increase the risk for completing the absolute H&S top highlighted above.

Chart 4: Interactive Brokers Group Inc. (IBKR) and relative to the S&P 500 (bottom)

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Suttmeier Technical Strategies, LLC (STS) provides financial commentary and market analysis for educational and informational purposes only. We are not registered investment advisors, and nothing published by STS should be considered personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or a solicitation to engage in investment activity. All content is impersonal and does not consider your individual financial circumstances. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risk, and you should consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. STS or its representatives may hold positions in securities mentioned in our publications. Such holdings are subject to change without notice and do not constitute investment advice.