The Stock Pulse - Dec. 2, 2025

*** Please see the bottom of this report for important disclaimers and disclosures.***

The Stock Pulse - 02 Dec 2025 - Two semis ASML and TER. Two financials HAFC and XP.pdf Download PDF • 2.07MB

Two semis: ASML and TER. Two financials: HAFC and XP

Two bullish semis: ASML and TER. Two bullish financials: HAFC and XP

Our Straight from the Chart blog highlighted a bullish breakout and retest pattern for the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) as well as positive setups for Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Applied Materials (AMAT), and Analog Devices (ADI).

We address bullish patterns for both ASML (ASML) and Teradyne (TER) in this report.

• ASML is carving out a bullish cup and handle that would be confirmed on a breakout above 1086–1110, opening upside toward 1325 and potentially 1590.

• TER has completed a major multi-year base with upside potential toward 220 and 258 as long as support from 160 down to 144 remains intact.

We also highlight two bullish charts in financials: Hanmi Financial (HAFC) and XP Inc. (XP).

• HAFC is breaking higher from a large head and shoulders base, with a sustained move above 27.35–27.61 supporting targets at 35.35–35.85 and 40.75.

• A decisive rally above the 19.58 to 20.35-20.64 would confirm a bottom for XP and favor further upside to 25.00 and 29.75.

ASML Holding (ASML): Cup and handle pattern favors upside to 1325 and 1590

ASML is forming a late 2024 into late 2025 bullish cup and handle formation. Sustaining a rally beyond the October 2025 and July 2025 peaks at 1086-1110 would confirm this pattern and suggest continued upside toward 1325 (100% extension of the 2022-2024 rally projected off the April 2025 low) and then potentially to 1590 (cup and handle pattern count) longer term. Until then, the rising 13-week moving average at 995 and the October and November lows at 946-936 provide key supports on dips.

Teradyne (TER): Big base breakout favors upside to 220 and 258  

TER completed a late 2021-late 2025 big base in late October and successfully retested the breakout in late November. This bullish setup remains in place provided that the big support zone from 160 down to 144, which is reinforced by the rising 13-week moving average near 153, continues to hold. This big base pattern suggests that TER can rally to pattern counts at 220 and 258.

Hanmi Financial (HAFC): Bullish H&S pattern targets 35.35-35.85 and 40.75

HAFC is breaking higher from an early 2022-late 2025 bullish head and shoulders pattern. Sustaining this week’s push above 27.35-27.61 would confirm this big base and suggest upside potential beyond the early 2022 peak at 28.84 toward 35.35-35.85 (pattern count and January 2017 peak). Rising 13-,26-, and 40-week moving averages from 25.94 down to 24.19 underpin this bullish backdrop for HAFC along with chart support at 25.60.

XP Inc. (XP): Head and shoulders bottom breakout watch

XP has strengthened and is positioned to break out from a mid 2024-late 2025 head and shoulders (H&S) bottom formation. A decisive rally above the 19.58 (200-week moving average) to 20.35-20.64 area (pattern neckline) would confirm this pattern and favor further upside to 25.00 (tactical pattern count), 26.31-27.71 (early 2024-mid 2023 peaks), and 29.75 (full pattern count). Until then, improving 13-, 26-, and 40-week moving averages from 18.25 down to 17.49 reinforce the developing right shoulder of the H&S bottom.

Monitor our “Straight from the Chart” blog for more stock and ETF charts

What is The Stock Pulse?

The Stock Pulse provides bullish and bearish stock and ETF ideas

The Stock Pulse highlights bullish and bearish technical setups across common stocks, ADRs, and ETFs. The report emphasizes weekly charts to reduce short-term noise and targets a three-to-six-month investment horizon. We analyze price action and trends from both an absolute and relative perspective. Our relative benchmark is typically the S&P 500. We focus on the technicals, we but encourage investors to evaluate the fundamentals before acting on the ideas presented in The Stock Pulse.

We can categorize these charts as follows:

·         Bullish leadership: Bullish absolute and bullish relative trends. This technical setup represents a confirmed bullish trend. It also can indicate a bullish momentum stock.

o    Actions to consider: Buy dips, hold longs, and avoid shorts. 

·         Bearish laggard: Bearish absolute and bearish relative trends. This technical setup represents a confirmed bearish trend. It also can indicate a bearish momentum stock.

o    Actions to consider: Sell rallies, hold shorts, and avoid longs.

·         Bullish weakening: A bullish absolute trend and a deteriorating to bearish relative trend. The stock has rallied but lags its benchmark. This lack of bullish relative confirmation provides a negative divergence, which is a potential bearish leading indicator for the absolute price chart.

o    Actions to consider: Protect or reduce absolute longs, consider relative shorts, and if aggressive, initialize an absolute short.

·         Bearish strengthening: A bearish absolute trend and an improving to bullish relative trend. The stock has declined, but it has dropped less than its benchmark. This lack of bearish relative confirmation provides a positive divergence, which is a potential bullish leading indicator for the absolute price chart.

o    Actions to consider: Protect or reduce absolute shorts, consider relative longs, and if aggressive, initialize an absolute long.

Key indicators

We rely weekly charts – both absolute and relative – with simple weekly moving averages (WMA) and Trend Scores to assess the technical condition of the stocks, ADRs, and ETFS highlighted in this note. In addition, we may also highlight other important indicators and well as provide technical screens.

Weekly moving averages show multiple timeframes on one chart

·         The slope of the moving average is more important than whether the price is above or below it

·         13-WMA: Quarterly and tactical trend

·         26-WMA: Half-year and intermediate trend

·         40-WMA: Longer-term trend and similar to the 200-day moving average

·         200-WMA: Long-term or macro trend

Trend Scores

·         Trend Score: Ranges from -10 to +10 and incorporates the 13-, 26-, and 40-WMAs. Higher scores indicate stronger trends with prices above rising WMAs. Lower scores indicate weaker trends with price below declining WMAs. Longer WMAs are more heavily weighted.

·         Long-term Trend Score: Ranges from -20 to +20 and includes the 13-, 26-, 40-, and 200-WMAs. Higher scores reflect stronger long-term uptrends, while lower scores indicate long-term downtrends. Longer WMAs carry more weight.

Two semiconductor stocks: ASML and TER

ASML Holding (ASML): Cup and handle pattern favors upside to 1325 and 1590

ASML is forming a late 2024 into late 2025 bullish cup and handle formation. Sustaining a rally beyond the October 2025 and July 2025 peaks at 1086-1110 would confirm this pattern and suggest continued upside toward 1325 (100% extension of the 2022-2024 rally projected off the April 2025 low) and then potentially to 1590 (cup and handle pattern count) longer term. Until then, the rising 13-week moving average at 995 and the October and November lows at 946-936 provide key supports on dips.

Chart notes:

·         A bottom for ASML relative to the S&P 500 (SPX) bodes well for the bullish cup and handle pattern highlighted above.

Chart 1: ASML Holding NV – New York Shares (ASML) (top) and relative to the S&P 500 (bottom)

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Teradyne (TER): Big base breakout favors upside to 220 and 258  

TER completed a late 2021-late 2025 big base in late October and successfully retested the breakout in late November. This bullish setup remains in place provided that the big support zone from 160 down to 144, which is reinforced by the rising 13-week moving average near 153, continues to hold. This big base pattern suggests that TER can rally to pattern counts at 220 and 258.

Chart notes:

·         TER has shown leadership vs. the SPX since May. The next step is clearing relative resistance at the mid 2024 peak.

Chart 2: Teradyne, Inc. (TER) (top) and relative to the S&P 500 (bottom)

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Two bullish financial stocks: HAFC and XP

Hanmi Financial (HAFC): Bullish H&S pattern targets 35.35-35.85 and 40.75

HAFC is breaking higher from an early 2022-late 2025 bullish head and shoulders pattern. Sustaining this week’s push above 27.35-27.61 would confirm this big base and suggest upside potential beyond the early 2022 peak at 28.84 toward 35.35-35.85 (pattern count and January 2017 peak). Rising 13-,26-, and 40-week moving averages from 25.94 down to 24.19 underpin this bullish backdrop for HAFC along with chart support at 25.60.

Chart notes:

·         HAFC is improving and forming a potential 2023-2025 head and shoulders bottom relative to the SPX.

Chart 3: Hanmi Financial Corp. (HAFC) (top) and relative to the S&P 500 (bottom)

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

XP Inc. (XP): Head and shoulders bottom breakout watch

XP has strengthened and is positioned to break out from a mid 2024-late 2025 head and shoulders (H&S) bottom formation. A decisive rally above the 19.58 (200-week moving average) to 20.35-20.64 area (pattern neckline) would confirm this pattern and favor further upside to 25.00 (tactical pattern count), 26.31-27.71 (early 2024-mid 2023 peaks), and 29.75 (full pattern count). Until then, improving 13-, 26-, and 40-week moving averages from 18.25 down to 17.49 reinforce the developing right shoulder of the H&S bottom.

Chart notes:

·         XP is improving relative to the SPX. Sustaining the push above the 13-, 26-, and 40-week moving averages would bode well for XP.

Chart 4: XP Inc – Ordinary Shares – Class A (XP) and relative to the S&P 500 (bottom)

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Suttmeier Technical Strategies, LLC (STS) provides financial commentary and market analysis for educational and informational purposes only. We are not registered investment advisors, and nothing published by STS should be considered personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or a solicitation to engage in investment activity. All content is impersonal and does not consider your individual financial circumstances. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risk, and you should consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. STS or its representatives may hold positions in securities mentioned in our publications. Such holdings are subject to change without notice and do not constitute investment advice.