The Stock Pulse - Dec. 31, 2025

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The Stock Pulse - 31 Dec 2025 - Three bulls EBAY, SCHW, and ULTA; One vulnerable GPC.pdf Download PDF • 1.79MB

Three bulls: EBAY, SCHW, and ULTA; One vulnerable: GPC

Three bullish stocks: EBAY, SCHW, and ULTA; One vulnerable stock: GPC

EBay (EBAY), Charles Schwab (SCHW), and Ulta Beauty (ULTA) show bullish technical backdrops following multi-year big base breakouts, while Genuine Parts (GPC) remains vulnerable.

• EBAY has broken out from a late-2021 to mid-2025 base with upside potential to 105 and 124 while holding key support at 81–79.

• SCHW’s mid-2022 to mid-2025 base and bullish flag support upside targets of 110 and 123, with key supports from 95 down to 84.50.

• ULTA has broken out from an early-2023 to late-2025 base, with strength above 575–556 keeping upside potential toward 759 and 795 intact.

• In contrast, GPC is at risk of a bearish head-and-shoulders continuation pattern while below 128–134.82, with a break under 123–121.60 opening the door to downside toward 113, 104, and potentially 100.

EBay (EBAY): Big base breakout and retest with upside potential to 105 and 124

EBAY, a retail trade stock, has broken out from a late 2021 into mid 2025 big base that suggests further upside to 105 and 124. Although a double top from the August and October highs at 101.12-101.15 is a risk for EBAY, the stock has defended its rising 40-week moving average (WMA) since early November. This action has held 81-79 to keep a bullish breakout and retest scenario intact. A decisive move above nearby chart resistance and the rising 26-week WMA at 86.35–88.65 would solidify this bullish breakout and retest pattern for EBAY.

Charles Schwab (SCHW): Big base breakout projects to 110 and 123

SCHW is a capital markets stock that has broken out from a mid 2022-mid 2025 big base. An early August into late November correction formed a bullish flag that has refreshed this positive setup. Together, these bullish patterns suggest further upside to 110 (61.8% extension) and then to 123 (100% extension and big base pattern count). Rising 26- and 40-week moving averages near 95 and 91, respectively, underpin SCHW’s bullish backdrop ahead of chart supports from 89.34 (flag pattern low) and 86.63-84.50 (big base breakout zone).

Ulta Beauty (ULTA): Big base breakout projects to 759 and 795

ULTA, a specialty retailing stock, has broken out from an early 2023 into late 2025 big base. Holding the breakout zone at 575-556 would keep the immediate pattern bullish with upside potential to 759 (100% extension) and 795 (big base pattern count). The rising 13- and 26-week moving averages (WMAs) at 556-535 reinforce this bullish trend. If needed, chart levels and the rising 40-WMA at 498-486 offer additional support.

Genuine Parts (GPC): At risk for bearish head and shoulders continuation pattern

GPC, a distribution services stock, is vulnerable to the downside and at risk of forming a bearish head and shoulders (H&S) continuation pattern. While below the 128 to 134.82 area (13-, 26-, and 40-week moving averages and the potential right shoulder peak), the risk is for a break below the pattern neckline and early November low at 123.00-121.60. This would confirm the bearish H&S pattern with deeper downside risk to chart levels at 113.48-112.74, the April low at 104, and potentially down to the pattern count at 100.

Monitor our “Straight from the Chart” blog for more stock and ETF charts

What is The Stock Pulse?

The Stock Pulse provides bullish and bearish stock and ETF ideas

The Stock Pulse highlights bullish and bearish technical setups across common stocks, ADRs, and ETFs. The report emphasizes weekly charts to reduce short-term noise and targets a three-to-six-month investment horizon. We analyze price action and trends from both an absolute and relative perspective. Our relative benchmark is typically the S&P 500. We focus on the technicals, we but encourage investors to evaluate the fundamentals before acting on the ideas presented in The Stock Pulse.

We can categorize these charts as follows:

• Bullish leadership: Bullish absolute and bullish relative trends. This technical setup represents a confirmed bullish trend. It also can indicate a bullish momentum stock.

  • Actions to consider: Buy dips, hold longs, and avoid shorts. 

• Bearish laggard: Bearish absolute and bearish relative trends. This technical setup represents a confirmed bearish trend. It also can indicate a bearish momentum stock.

  • Actions to consider: Sell rallies, hold shorts, and avoid longs.

• Bullish weakening: A bullish absolute trend and a deteriorating to bearish relative trend. The stock has rallied but lags its benchmark. This lack of bullish relative confirmation provides a negative divergence, which is a potential bearish leading indicator for the absolute price chart.

  • Actions to consider: Protect or reduce absolute longs, consider relative shorts, and if aggressive, initialize an absolute short.

• Bearish strengthening: A bearish absolute trend and an improving to bullish relative trend. The stock has declined, but it has dropped less than its benchmark. This lack of bearish relative confirmation provides a positive divergence, which is a potential bullish leading indicator for the absolute price chart.

  • Actions to consider: Protect or reduce absolute shorts, consider relative longs, and if aggressive, initialize an absolute long.

Key indicators

We rely weekly charts – both absolute and relative – with simple weekly moving averages (WMA) and Trend Scores to assess the technical condition of the stocks, ADRs, and ETFS highlighted in this note. In addition, we may also highlight other important indicators and well as provide technical screens.

Weekly moving averages show multiple timeframes on one chart

• The slope of the moving average is more important than whether the price is above or below it

• 13-WMA: Quarterly and tactical trend

• 26-WMA: Half-year and intermediate trend

• 40-WMA: Longer-term trend and similar to the 200-day moving average

• 200-WMA: Long-term or macro trend

Trend Scores

• Trend Score: Ranges from -10 to +10 and incorporates the 13-, 26-, and 40-WMAs. Higher scores indicate stronger trends with prices above rising WMAs. Lower scores indicate weaker trends with price below declining WMAs. Longer WMAs are more heavily weighted.

• Long-term Trend Score: Ranges from -20 to +20 and includes the 13-, 26-, 40-, and 200-WMAs. Higher scores reflect stronger long-term uptrends, while lower scores indicate long-term downtrends. Longer WMAs carry more weight.

Three bullish charts: EBAY, SCHW, and ULTA

EBay (EBAY): Big base breakout and retest with upside potential to 105 and 124

EBAY, a retail trade stock, has broken out from a late 2021 into mid 2025 big base that suggests further upside to 105 and 124. Although a double top from the August and October highs at 101.12-101.15 is a risk for EBAY, the stock has defended its rising 40-week moving average (WMA) since early November. This action has held 81-79 to keep a bullish breakout and retest scenario intact. A decisive move above nearby chart resistance and the rising 26-week WMA at 86.35–88.65 would solidify this bullish breakout and retest pattern for EBAY.

Chart notes:

• The August and October highs near 101.12-101.15 offer resistance ahead of the big base pattern counts at 105 (for the breakout above 71) and 124 (for the breakout above 81).

• A potential bullish breakout and retest from a mid 2022-mid 2025 basing pattern for EBAY relative to the S&P 500 corroborates the bullish absolute price pattern highlighted above. Reclaiming the 13-, 26-, and 40-WMAs would confirm the a successful retest and suggest that EBAY’s leadership trend from early 2024 continues.

Chart 1: EBay Inc. (EBAY) (top) and relative to the S&P 500 (bottom)

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Charles Schwab (SCHW): Big base breakout projects to 110 and 123

SCHW is a capital markets stock that has broken out from a mid 2022-mid 2025 big base. An early August into late November correction formed a bullish flag that has refreshed this positive setup. Together, these bullish patterns suggest further upside to 110 (61.8% extension) and then to 123 (100% extension and big base pattern count). Rising 26- and 40-week moving averages near 95 and 91, respectively, underpin SCHW’s bullish backdrop ahead of chart supports from 89.34 (flag pattern low) and 86.63-84.50 (big base breakout zone).

Chart notes:

• The 61.8% and 100% extension targets highlighted above are derived by projecting the April-August rally from the late November low.

• SCHW is building a potential bottoming pattern vs. the S&P 500 dating back to mid 2023. A decisive breakout above the declining 200-week moving average and chart resistances relative to the S&P 500 is required to confirm this bullish pattern, setting the stage for more enduring leadership for SCHW from its late 2024 relative low.

Chart 2: Charles Schwab Corp. (SCHW) (top) and relative to the S&P 500 (bottom)

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Ulta Beauty (ULTA): Big base breakout projects to 759 and 795

ULTA, a specialty retailing stock, has broken out from an early 2023 into late 2025 big base. Holding the breakout zone at 575-556 would keep the immediate pattern bullish with upside potential to 759 (100% extension) and 795 (big base pattern count). The rising 13- and 26-week moving averages (WMAs) at 556-535 reinforce this bullish trend. If needed, chart levels and the rising 40-WMA at 498-486 offer additional support.

Chart notes:

• The 100% extension level at 759 is calculated by projecting the March 2020 to March 2024 rally from the March 2025 low.

• ULTA has provided leadership vs. the S&P 500 since late 2024 and has continued to trend higher vs. the broader market after breaking out from a mid 2024-mid 2025 relative bottom. The next step is reclaiming the 200-WMA vs. the SPX.

Chart 3: Ulta Beauty Inc. (ULTA) (top) and relative to the S&P 500 (bottom)

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

One vulnerable stock chart: GPC

Genuine Parts (GPC): At risk for bearish head and shoulders continuation pattern

GPC, a distribution services stock, is vulnerable to the downside and at risk of forming a bearish head and shoulders (H&S) continuation pattern. While below the 128 to 134.82 area (13-, 26-, and 40-week moving averages and the potential right shoulder peak), the risk is for a break below the pattern neckline and early November low at 123.00-121.60. This would confirm the bearish H&S pattern with deeper downside risk to chart levels at 113.48-112.74, the April low at 104, and potentially down to the pattern count at 100.

Chart notes:

• The breakdown for GPC vs. the S&P 500 continues a longer-term lagging trend for the stock and provides a potential bearish leading indicator for an absolute price breakdown.

Chart 4: Genuine Parts Co. (GPC) and relative to the S&P 500 (bottom)

Source: Optuma, Suttmeier Technical Strategies

Suttmeier Technical Strategies, LLC (STS) provides financial commentary and market analysis for educational and informational purposes only. We are not registered investment advisors, and nothing published by STS should be considered personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or a solicitation to engage in investment activity. All content is impersonal and does not consider your individual financial circumstances. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risk, and you should consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. STS or its representatives may hold positions in securities mentioned in our publications. Such holdings are subject to change without notice and do not constitute investment advice.