Toll Brothers (TOL): Cup and handle

Toll Brothers (TOL) is a homebuilding stock that setting up for an upward breakout from a late 2024 into early 2026 bullish cup and handle formation. A decisive rally above the pattern neckline at 149-150 would confirm this positive technical setup, targeting initial upside to 162-163 (61.8% extension of the rally from the cup low to the handle high projected from the handle low) and 169.52 (late 2024 peak), with longer-term potential to 187 (100% extension) and 214 (cup and handle pattern count).

Until a decisive upside breakout beyond 149-150 occurs, rising 13-, 26-, and 40-week moving averages from 140-130 reinforce the developing handle of the cup and handle formation. These moving averages have acted as support on TOL since early October 2025.

TOL is bottoming relative to the S&P 500. Holding above the rising 13-, 26-, 40-, and 200-week moving averages would support a future leadership breakout for TOL.

Chart 1: Toll Brothers (TOL) (top) and relative to the S&P 500 (bottom)

The volume advance decline indicator is also forming a bullish cup and handle. We would look for bullish confirmation from this volume indicator if TOL sustains a breakout from its cup and handle.

Weekly MACD generated a bullish signal above the zero line to suggest improving trend momentum as TOL attempts to complete its cup and handle pattern.

TOL is scheduled to report earnings on Tuesday, February 17, 2026, after market close.

Chart 2: Toll Brothers (TOL) (top), volume advance decline (center), and MACD (bottom): Weekly chart