U.S. 10-year T-note yield

Our latest Charted Market Insights report (10/21) highlighted the potential for lower 30-, 5-, and 2-year Treasury yields. This post focuses on the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, which has a less decisive technical setup in our view.

The 10-year Treasury yield tilts lower but must break 4.00%

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has had a choppy chart pattern, but one that tilts toward a lower 10-year yield.

While the 4.29-4.33% to 4.51% zone remains intact as yield resistance (price support), the April-August bearish head and shoulders pattern provides an overhang for the 10-year yield (bullish for 10-year T-note prices).

The next step is breaking below 4.0% area (April low), which would reinforce the sideways to lower trend for the 10-year yield dating back to late 2023 with the potential to retrace 38.2% to 50% of the 2020-2023 rise in yield. Under this scenario, the 10-year yield could decline to 3.25% (38.2% retracement) and 2.74% (50% retracement).

Chart 1: U.S. 10-year Treasury yield

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