U.S. Treasury Yields across the curve

This post updates our charts and technical views on the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield (TYX), 10-year Treasury yield (TNX), 5-year Treasury yield (FVX), and 2-year Treasury yield (2YCMY.X).

In summary, TYX's breakout from a head and shoulders bottom suggests upside risk to 5%, the TNX and FVX have backed up to test falling 26- and 40-week moving averages as resistances, and the 2-year yield consolidates within a tight range and remains tilted to the downside.

These setups have contributed to a steepening of the yield curve, which has the potential to continue.

U.S. 30-year Treasury yield (TYX)

The breakout for TYX from its tactical head and shoulder bottom remains intact above 47.85-47.77 (4.785-4.777%) with near-term upside risk to 50.00 (5% area).

Chart 1: U.S. 30-year Treasury yield (TYX): Daily

The weekly chart pattern for TYX remains a big breakdown from a rising wedge that supports the case for a lower 30-year yield (higher T-Bond price). However, in our view, TYX must invalidate its head and shoulders bottom breakout zone at 47.85-47.77, which coincides with the 26- and 40-week moving averages (WMAs) at 47.94-47.87, to reinforce the breakdown from the wedge and the potential for a decline to 41.65 (rising 200-week moving averages) and 39.06 (the start of the wedge and the September 2024 low).

Chart 2: U.S. 30-year Treasury yield (TYX): Weekly

10-year Treasury yield (TNX)

The TNX has had a tactical upward bias from its September-November lows at 39.92-39.47 but has stalled near its declining 26- and 40-WMAs at 41.82-42.42. While between these WMAs and the rising 200-WMA at 39.24, the TNX remains "coiled" as it struggles for direction. We would view a move above the 26- and 40-WMAs as bearish for the 10-year note (risk of a lower price and a higher yield), and it would take a move below the 200-WMA and uptrend line from April 2023 to generate a longer-term bullish signal (potential for a higher price and a lower yield).

Chart 3: U.S. 10-year Treasury yield (TNX): Weekly

5-year Treasury yield (FVX)

The FVX has had a tactical upward bias from its September-November lows at 35.53-35.30. These lows marked a test of the neckline a developing 2022-2025 topping process, but the zone of the 26-, 40-, and 200-WMAs from 37.42 up to 38.58 has contained upward probes, keeping the bias on the 5-year yield to the downside. It would take a decisive loss of the recent lows (35.53-35.30) to break the topping pattern neckline and support the case for a lower 5-year yield (higher 5-year T-note price).

Chart 4: U.S. 5-year Treasury yield (FVX): Weekly

2-year Treasury yield (2YCMY.X)

The 2-year Treasury yield remains below resistances and "coiled" for a potential break lower (higher 2-year T-note price). This bullish setup remains intact below 3.60-3.64%, and a decisive break below 3.41% would confirm it, triggering another down-leg for the 2-year yield. Past breakdowns from July 2024 and August 2025 support the case for the 2-year yield to drop to 3.22% and 2.80%. It would take a decisive breakout above 3.60-3.64% to negate this view.

Chart 5: 2-year Treasury yield (2YCMY.X): Daily