Welcome to September: S&P 500 update

The S&P 500 (SPX) has gapped lower and is down about 1.5% just before midday (12 PM EST). This downside gap remains unfilled below the 6412–6445 range, which also coincides with the 13- and 26-day moving averages clustered around 6400–6440.

The near-term risk entering September - the weakest month of the year for the SPX going back to 1928 - is that this gap confirms a bearish rising wedge for the SPX. While trading below 6400–6445, this pattern remains intact, with downside risk to 6343–6324 (August 20 low and rising 26-day moving average), and potentially further toward the wedge’s origin in the low 6200s. The late-June breakout zone at 6147–6100 stands out as major support on the SPX.