What's next for Apple (AAPL)

Our January 6 Straight from the Chart blog post showed a struggling technical pattern for Apple Inc. (AAPL) that with the risk for a tactical head and shoulders (H&S) top that warranted watching risk management supports. AAPL confirmed this H&S top and hit the 244-242 downside target last week prior to a rebound into yesterday's earnings print. See Chart 1 below.

Chart 1: Apple Inc. (AAPL) (top) and 14-day RSI (price momentum) (bottom): Daily chart

What’s next:

Key risk-management support:

• AAPL must continue to hold the 244–243 to 238 zone, a confluence of chart support, the 38.2% retracement of the April-December 2025 rally, and the rising 40-week moving average (WMA) (Chart 2).

Trend repair levels:

• A decisive rally above 256 (rising 26-WMA) and 260–262 (prior breakdown zone) is needed to refresh the bullish trend.

• A move above the 13-WMA near 268, which aligns with the downtrend from the early December peak, would provide further confirmation and support a retest of the 288.62 December high, with potential for higher highs.

Momentum confirmation:

• The 14-day RSI needs to reclaim broken support near 47.18 up to 51.52 (Chart 1).

• The 14-week RSI must hold 46.74-46.15 (Chart 2), which would represent “bull market” momentum support.

Downside risk if weakness persists:

• Additional retracement supports to watch sit at 229–228 (50%) and 215–214 (61.8%).

Volume and momentum indicators:

• Weekly volume A-D and on-balance volume trends remain constructive (Chart 3). Unlike price action, these volume indicators are above their recent upside breakout points.

• A potential overhang remains, as the weekly MACD is still on a bearish signal (Chart 3).

  
  

Chart 2: Apple Inc. (AAPL) (top) and 14-week RSI (price momentum) (bottom): Weekly chart

Chart 3: Apple Inc. (AAPL) (top), MACD (center top), on-balance-volume (center bottom) and volume advance decline (bottom): Weekly chart