ZROZ: A potential bullish shift

The PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury ETF (ZROZ) shows a potential bullish shift on a breakout from a September 2024 into September 2025 falling (aka) bullish) wedge. ZROZ also shows a tactical breakout from a base off the May, July, and September lows. This breakout remains intact above 67.30-66.56, supported by improving 13-, 26-, and 40-week moving averages (ranging from 68.19 to 66.41), and projects near-term strength toward 73.60 (pattern count) and the March and April highs at 74.73-75.06 (Chart 1).

There is, however, a risk that the tactical structure is forming a head-and-shoulders top, particularly if the potential right-shoulder zone between 69.00 and 70.18 continues to cap rallies (Chart 2). Still, this bearish pattern would only be confirmed—and the bullish setup invalidated—on a decisive break below 66.84–66.56.

Chart 1: PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury ETF (ZROZ): Weekly chart

Chart 2: PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury ETF (ZROZ): Daily chart

Bullish wedge patterns across ZROZ, TLT, and EDV

The falling or bullish wedge for ZROZ resembles those seen on the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) and Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF (EDV).

Chart 3: PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury ETF (ZROZ): Weekly chart

Chart 4: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT): Weekly chart

Chart 5: Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF (EDV): Weekly chart