Zweig Breadth Thrust

Question: I know you have talked in the past about the Zweig Breadth Thrust. I’ve seen a few saying we are setting up for one. Do you agree. What would it take for it to occur?

Yes - we a monitoring the potential Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT) for NYSE stocks, which if completed could provide a bullish signal for U.S. equities.

What Is a Zweig Breadth Thrust?

Developed by Martin Zweig, the ZBT measures whether the market shifts from deeply oversold to strongly bought in a short period. It uses the 10-day exponential moving average of the NYSE breadth ratio:

Advancers ÷ (Advancers + Decliners)

A valid ZBT requires two conditions:

1. The breadth ratio falls below 0.40 to indicate a deeply oversold market.

2. Within 10 trading days, it rises above 0.615 to suggest an explosive surge in buying interest.

Where does the ZBT stand now

• The first condition was met when the ZBT breadth ratio dropped below 0.40 on November 20. That started the 10-day clock.

• For a confirmed thrust, the indicator must climb above 0.615 by December 5. If reached, the signal would classify as a valid ZBT.

Bottom Line

The setup is in place, and the next several sessions will determine whether the market delivers the required breadth surge to confirm a true Zweig Breadth Thrust. It’s a powerful signal when triggered—just not an infallible one.

Past successful ZBTs—such as in late 2018, early 2020, and late 2023—preceded strong, sustained rallies. But not all signals follow through. False triggers have occurred, including in November 2018 and December 2021.

Chart 1: NYSE Composite (top) and Zweig Breadth Thrust signals (bottom)

We prefer ZBT signals for the S&P 1500, but this index is not setting up for a potential late 2025 ZBT signal.

Chart 2: S&P 1500 (top) and Zweig Breadth Thrust signals (bottom)