Ambarella (AMBA): Big base breakout watch

Ambarella (AMBA): A breakout above 89-93.44 would confirm a 2022-2025 big base

Ambarella (AMBA) is positioned to complete a major base that has been developing since mid-2022. A decisive breakout above 89.00–93.44 would confirm the base and signal upside potential beyond the early 2023 high at 99.86 toward 110.95 (38.2% retracement of the late 2021–early 2025 decline), 133.22 (50% retracement), and 147 (pattern target).

Holding above support at 83–81, defined by the rising 13-week moving average and a key chart level, would keep the near-term pattern bullish. Additional support lies at 72.40–71.00 (rising 26-week moving average and chart level).

The developing 2022-2025 big base resembles a similar long-term base that formed between 2016 and 2020, which reinforces the technical significance of the current structure (Chart 2).

A double bottom for AMBA versus the S&P 500 further supports the bullish absolute price setup.

AMBA is scheduled to report earnings on November 25.

Chart 1: Ambarella (AMBA) (top) and relative to the S&P 500 (bottom)

Chart 2: Ambarella (AMBA): Monthly chart