GDX presents a mixed picture

5/26/2026 – VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) continues to present a mixed technical picture. Rising 26- and 40-week moving averages (WMAs) reflect bullish long-term trends across the ETF’s absolute price chart, relative trend versus the S&P 500 (SPX), and volume advance-decline indicator (VAD). However, GDX has corrected within these uptrends, with two failed attempts at sustaining rallies off tactical lows near the rising 40-WMA in late March and early May. Since then, GDX has weakened to a lower low versus the SPX, a potential bearish leading indicator for a lower absolute price low. Last week also marked the first close below the 40-WMA since mid-January 2025.

GDX begins this week back above its 40-WMA near 86.63, though we continue to view recent strength as corrective given overhead resistance at the 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% retracements of the early-March to late-March decline at 93.42, 97.95, and 102.49, respectively. Strength since the late-March low has stalled between the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels, leaving the broader pattern challenged in our view.

If the pattern remains challenged, the risk is for a retest of the 78 area, which marks the early-March low and the 61.8% extension of the early-March to late-March decline projected from the mid-April peak. A decisive break below that support would increase the risk of a decline toward 68–64, corresponding to the late-October 2025 low and the 100% extension target.

Reclaiming the rising 26-WMA near 93.73, which also aligns with the 38.2% retracement level, especially on a weekly closing basis, is needed to improve tactical stability and would provide a constructive signal despite the overhang of Fibonacci resistance levels from 97.95 to 102.49 and recent lower highs near 98.74 and 102.39.

If the recent breakdowns from topping patterns on GDX versus the SPX and the VAD on the daily chart remain intact, the risk continues to favor choppy-to-lower trading for GDX in our view (see Chart 2 below).

Chart 1: VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) (top), relative to the S&P 500 (center), and volume advance decline (bottom): Weekly chart

Chart 2: VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) (top), relative to the S&P 500 (center), and volume advance decline (bottom): Daily chart

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