The Charted Line - AI-Generated Summary -June 10, 2026

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AI-Generated Content Notice

This summary is generated using artificial intelligence based on a transcript of the Charted Line webinar. While we strive for accuracy, we do not guarantee the completeness, accuracy, or reliability of the information presented. Please refer to the full webinar recording and original materials for complete context.

Top 25 Tickers Event Reminder

Stephen opened the webinar with a reminder that members still have time to submit ticker requests for the upcoming Top 25 Tickers event.

Key Takeaways

Top 25 Tickers webinar scheduled for June 16 at 1 PM ET
Ticker submission deadline is Friday at the market close
The 25 most requested names will be covered
Rankings are determined by member submissions and popularity

Stephen encouraged members to continue submitting ticker requests before the deadline.

Market Outlook: Targets Reached, Volatility Increasing

Key Takeaway

STS continues to believe the secular bull market remains intact, but the market has entered a period where risk management becomes increasingly important.

The S&P 500 has reached major upside objectives and is now entering a historically challenging portion of the presidential cycle. Stephen reiterated that this is not an ideal environment for aggressively deploying new capital into broad market indexes.

Presidential Cycle Concerns

The current environment aligns with the weaker portion of the midterm year cycle.

Historically:

The summer months can be challenging in the midterm year
June and September are the weakest months
The cycle typically improves closer to the November midterm elections with stronger upside potential into the middle of Year 3

Stephen noted that the market may continue to experience elevated volatility throughout the summer months.

S&P 500 Outlook

Key Takeaway

The S&P 500 has reached major technical targets and now appears to be in a consolidation phase.

Important Levels

Supports

7,500 - broken
7,333 - under pressure
7,294–7,273 (May 6 gap support) - under pressure

Longer-Term Support

7100–6,900 area - breakout zone and rising weekly moving averages

Stephen emphasized that filling and sustaining a move below the May gap support zone would suggest upside exhaustion following the powerful rally from the spring lows.

Technical Warnings

Recent technical developments include:

Bearish engulfing pattern on the weekly chart
Increased seasonal risk
Important upside targets already achieved

The message remains one of caution, with the risk for a corrective phase, rather than outright bearishness, provided that 7100-6900 holds.

NASDAQ 100 Outlook

Key Takeaway

The NASDAQ 100 is also undergoing a tactical correction after reaching important objectives.

Key Levels

Initial Support

29,753-29,663 - daily and weekly gap - broken last Friday

Gap Support

28,200–28,065

Major Supports

27,200 - 13-week moving average
26,200–25,750 - breakout zone and 26-/40-week moving averages

Stephen noted that the NASDAQ recently experienced:

A bearish outside week
A weekly (and daily) exhaustion gap at 29,753-29,663
Additional downside risk to major support if gap support breaks

However, the broader uptrend remains intact while above key breakout areas and rising weekly moving averages that offer major support near 26,200–25,750.

Sentiment, Breadth & Market Internals

Key Takeaway

Market breadth remains healthier than headline index performance suggests.

3-Month VIX vs VIX

Last week's reading signaled elevated complacency (overbought), but this tactical sentiment indicator is not yet tactically fearful (oversold).

Stephen noted:

Complacency occurs above 1.2
Fear generally develops below 1.0
Current readings have not yet reached fear levels

The recent decline has reduced optimism but has not yet produced the type of fear normally associated with a market low

Breadth Remains Constructive

Despite weakness in major indexes:

Advance-decline lines remain healthy
Advance-decline volume remains strong
New lows remain limited
Breadth is not confirming a major market breakdown

Stephen characterized the environment as a rotational correction rather than a broad deterioration under the surface.

Leadership Rotation

Recent weakness has been concentrated in:

AI stocks
Semiconductors
Mega-cap growth names

Meanwhile:

Average stocks have held up relatively well
Breadth indicators remain firm
New leadership groups may emerge

This rotation is viewed as healthy within the context of a longer-term bull market.

Growth Leadership Remains Intact

Key Takeaway

Growth leadership is correcting, but not breaking down.

Stephen highlighted pullbacks in:

QQQ versus SPY
NASDAQ versus S&P 500
Growth versus Value
Mega-caps versus equal weight indexes

However, these moves currently resemble normal corrections toward rising moving averages rather than major trend reversals.

Key Risk Indicator

Consumer Discretionary versus Consumer Staples remains one of Stephen's most important ratio charts.

The concern:

Discretionary (XLY) has not moved to new highs relative to Staples (XLP) to confirm the recent high on the S&P 500
This weakening trend for "cyclical" consumer stocks relative to "defensive" consumer stocks sets up a bearish divergence
A similar divergence between XLY vs. XLP and the S&P 500 appeared before the earlier 2026 correction

This remains one of the more important warning signs being monitored.

Equal Weight, Small Caps & Mid Caps

Equal Weight S&P 500 (RSP)

Support

205
200–198

Targets

213
Low 220s

The cup-and-handle breakout remains intact for now.

Russell 2000 (IWM)

Support

288–286
272–268
Mid-260s

Long-Term Target

Stephen continues to view the longer-term base as constructive despite recent upside exhaustion.

Mid Caps (MDY)

Support

662–650

Long-Term Target

Mid-caps have reached a prior objective near 684 but continue to exhibit constructive long-term characteristics.

Financial Conditions, Credit Markets & Rates

Key Takeaway

Financial conditions remain the most important macro concern.

Stephen highlighted a growing divergence between:

Higher highs in the S&P 500
Less favorable readings in Chicago Fed Financial Conditions

Similar divergences occurred ahead of:

2015–2016 correction
2018 correction
2022 bear market

This remains a significant risk factor.

More Positive Developments

St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index

Remains benign
No signs of systemic stress

Credit Markets

High-yield spreads remain supportive
BAA spreads remain supportive

Credit conditions continue to support the broader bull market outlook.

Oil, Inflation & Treasury Yields

Key Takeaway

Treasury yields, inflation expectations and crude oil remain key macro risks.

Treasury Futures

The 10-Year Treasury future remains in a downtrend.

To improve technically:

Must recover above 110' 05–110' 08

Until then, yields remain vulnerable to moving higher (see below).

Crude Oil

Current outlook:

Sideways-to-lower pattern
Struggling below moving averages
Triangle breakout remains unconfirmed

Resistance:

95.60
97.23

Oil remains an important variable because higher crude prices could contribute to:

Rising inflation expectations
Higher Treasury yields
Pressure on equities

Inflation Expectations

10-Year Breakeven

Key Resistance

2.52%

5-Year Breakeven

Key Resistance

2.72%

Both measures have stalled below resistance, which Stephen viewed as a positive development for now.

10-Year Treasury Yield

A breakout above:

4.6%

could confirm a triangle pattern that ultimately targets:

5.75%

and would create additional headwinds for equities.

Global Markets & Commodities

Emerging Markets Remain Preferred

Key Takeaway

Emerging Markets remain STS's preferred international equity exposure.

EEM Levels

Monthly Risk Management

66.22
63.84

Targets

Stephen continues to favor EEM over developed international markets (EFA) and the U.S. (SPY).

Copper

Key Takeaway

Copper remains stronger than precious metals.

Support

6.15

Targets

6.58–6.71
7.00+

Copper's strength continues to suggest economic conditions remain healthy.

Gold & Silver

Silver

Potential downside support:

64–61

The metal remains below key moving averages and continues to struggle.

Gold

Potential support:

4,100
4,000

Stephen remains cautious until gold can reclaim its rising long-term moving averages.

U.S. Dollar

The Dollar Index may be attempting to form a longer-term bottom.

Confirmation requires a breakout above:

100.26–101.14

A bullish MACD divergence is beginning to emerge.

Sector Review

Key Takeaway

The market is becoming more defensive on a tactical basis.

Most Favored Areas

Technology (still ranked #1 despite correction) but at risk for bearish rotation
Energy
Real Estate
Banks
Healthcare
Materials
Industrials

Areas Showing Improvement

Financials (XLF)

Improving volume trends
Improving relative performance

Stephen specifically highlighted:

KBE
KRE
QABA

as banking-related areas showing attractive long-term bases.

Industrials (XLI)

Cup-and-handle structure remains intact.

Potential breakout area:

177–179

Materials (XLB)

Triangle pattern remains intact
Relative performance stabilizing

Energy (XLE)

Target:

Large base structure remains supportive.

Technology (XLK)

Risk management is required.

Potential pullback zone:

Low 160s
Low 150s

Consumer Staples (XLP)

Potential targets:

Showing signs of constructive rotation.

Real Estate (XLRE)

Real Estate may finally be preparing for a breakout from a major long-term base.

Healthcare

Healthcare continues to improve.

Stephen specifically highlighted:

VanEck Pharmaceutical ETF (PPH)

as a bullish breakout-retest candidate.

Stock & ETF Q&A

Bullish / Constructive

Charles Schwab (SCHW)

Support:

87–84

Target:

Large multi-year base remains intact.

Cheesecake Factory (CAKE)

Support:

Above 65 preferred

Targets:

86–87
Low 100s

Breaking higher from a big base.

Eli Lilly (LLY)

Targets:

1,165
1,360

Volume and relative strength continue confirming the bullish trend.

JFrog (FROG)

Support:

Target:

105–110

Viewed as one of the more attractive "recent" IPO-related setups.

Costco (COST)

Support:

976–957

Long-Term Target:

Mid-to-upper 1200s

Still viewed favorably while support holds.

VOLT ETF

Support:

37.33–36.28

Potential Target:

Constructive correction within a larger uptrend.

Neutral / Watch List

Tesla (TSLA)

Relative strength remains weak
Potential base-building process underway
Requires further confirmation

Fluence Energy (FLNC)

Possible base formation
No confirmed breakout

Snowflake (SNOW)

Potential buy zone:

221–181

Could be building a longer-term base.

GE Vernova (GEV)

Support:

856–767

Bullish long-term view remains intact but requires confirmation.

Viking Holdings Ltd. (VIK)

Preferred buy area:

Low 80s
Upper 70s

Target:

Still constructive but extended.

Bearish / Less Attractive

BWX Technologies (BWXT)

Failed breakout
Resistance: 193–207
Potential downside: 163

Cameco (CCJ)

Challenging setup
Risk of move toward 85

Uranium ETF (URA)

Potential support:

41–35

Requires stabilization before becoming attractive again.

Brazil ETF (EWZ)

Risk management levels triggered.

Potential downside:

32 area

DraftKings (DKNG)

Resistance:

28–30

Stephen characterized the chart as bearish until proven otherwise.

Quantum ETF (QTUM)

Climactic rally
Bearish reversal
Favor reducing exposure

Semiconductors & AI: Risk Management Increasing

NVIDIA (NVDA)

Support:

199–189

Potential rebound target:

240–250

Still holding support but no longer displaying the robust leadership characteristics seen previously.

AMD

Key Takeaway

Major targets have been reached.

Stephen suggested:

No new money
Focus on managing existing positions
Consider reducing exposure after the significant rally

Micron (MU)

Key Takeaway

Micron has reached important objectives and is showing signs of exhaustion.

Critical Gap Support:

820–780

As long as support holds, longer-term upside remains possible.

Failure of that support would change the outlook materially.

Closing Takeaway

The primary message of this week's webinar was that the market has entered a more challenging phase after reaching major technical objectives.

What STS Continues to Favor

Emerging Markets
Energy
Industrials
Healthcare
Select Financials
Real Estate
Constructive base-building opportunities

What STS Is Monitoring Closely

Midterm-year seasonality
Financial conditions divergences
Treasury yields
Inflation expectations
Crude oil
Consumer discretionary vs. staples
Technology sector weakness
Rotation away from mega-cap leadership

Bottom Line

STS continues to view the secular bull market as intact, but believes the market is likely in a period of consolidation and increased volatility. With important upside targets already achieved and seasonal headwinds emerging, Stephen emphasized disciplined risk management, patience, and waiting for more attractive entry points rather than chasing extended moves.

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